Opening Slide. Integrating bioenergy into the global forest and forest products markets

Transcription

1 Integrating bioenergy into the global forest and forest products markets William Stewart, J. Keith Gilless, Sijia Zhang, & Jeremy Fried University of California, Berkeley Energy Supply with Negative Carbon Emissions Stanford University, June 15, 2012 Opening Slide

2 1. Wood is the #1 biomass used for energy worldwide 2. Wood can be processed for co-firing or 100% firing in industrial boilers that could have CCS 3. Growing wood purely for energy is still not costcompetitive 4. Wood has many other traditional and potentially climate-benefiting uses Wood and BECC 7/3/12 2

3 Three potential pathways for the climate-efficient use of sustainably produced wood 1. Indirect carbon negative benefits Energy savings from using wood (not steel and cement) in buildings. 1 tco 2 e energy savings for every 1 tco 2 e stored in the wood products (engineered wood >> dimensional lumber) 2. Direct carbon neutral benefits Using clean chips (same as feedstock for pulp and paper) to produce liquid biofuel for transportation 3. Direct carbon negative benefits If sawmill residues, post-consumer residues, logging residues, and forest mortality is used as 10%-100% of the feedstock for cogeneration plants with CO2 capture and storage 7/3/12 3

4 Regional Trends in Wood Removals (FAO 2010) Oceania, South America, North and Central America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Industrial Roundwood Woodfuel Million Cubic Meters of Wood 7/3/12 4

5 Value $$$ Regional US annual forest growth from highest value to lowest value. Managing forests because carbon matters: Integrating Energy, Products, and Land Management Policy Malmsheimer et al Journal of Forestry JOFSupplement.pdf $$ $ $0 -$ 7/3/12 5

6 Highest productivity per ha Southern Hemisphere (f(climate, soils) Highest financial value per ha Northern Hemisphere f(proximity to lumber mkts) Mean annual increment in Mg Ha Yr Unirrigated Eucalyptus Plantations in Brazil (irrigation gave 30% boost) from Stape et al. (2010) Forest Ecology and Management Southern Latitude 7/3/12 6

7 Beyond the Carbon Neutral debate Temperate forests are already in the bioenergy business growing inventories and increasing bioenergy output has been going on for decades Strong regional empirical data exists but Conflicting global perspectives on total climate benefits of forest management is typically based on hypothetical scenarios that can t be checked 7/3/12 7

8 Common implicit economic assumptions in forest energy is not carbon neutral articles Emissions after the project end-date are free Ignore changes (+/-) in IPCC GHG energy, industrial processes, and waste sectors, just assume those changes captured in their LCAs Technological change is irrelevant, dx/dt = 0, at growing, processing, use, post-use stages Product prices to producers are irrelevant Project failure is government insured Global trade is irrelevant 7/3/12 8

9 140 Lifetime CO2e benefits from 100 CO2e harvest Pre 2008 California lumber/paper estimates US EPA GHG inv. chapter 3, ,8 7 US CA Current West Coast lumber/energy system Climate Benefits Harvest Building product substitution energy benefits Post consumer energy Sawmill CHP energy Energy from collected logging residues Carbon in landfills after volatiles are lost 100 yr avg. carbon in wood products Potential wood residues that can go to pulp, CHP, electricity, biofuels

10 More wood, less cement in future buildings 1. > 85 % of new floor space projected to be built this decade will be in Asia, mainly multi-units 2. Engineered wood such as cross laminated timber (CLT) is only starting to be used outside of Europe (NYT, June 4, 2012) 3. Efficient collection and use of post-consumer residues to complete the energy cycle is globally rare 7/3/12 10

11 120 Delivered Wood Price Trends in the Southeast US ( $/ Bone Dry Metric Ton Pine sawtimber Pine chip-n-saw Hardwood sawtimber Pine pulpwood Hardwod pulpwood Biomass 7/3/12 11

12 UCB s EBI project: test nondeterministic scenarios with biofuel end uses competing with other end uses Global competition by quantity for different wood end uses using a partial equilibrium model (GFPM) Global price trends f(gdp, government policies, technology diffusion) Total wood supplies: National inventories and growth/ harvest models Document competing climate-benefiting uses of wood Estimate necessary yields of short rotation woody crops (SRWC) to be competitive with energy canes

13 Fuel feedstock material flows in the Global Forest Product Model When prices are high enough to outbid traditional users Source: Adapted from USDA Forest Service Research Paper FPL RP 662

14 Fuel feedstock material flows in the Global Forest Product Model When prices are high enough to outbid traditional users When collection costs are less than delivered value $45/BDT BDT $32/ $32/BDT BDT Source: Adapted from USDA Forest Service Research Paper FPL RP 662

15 Fuel feedstock material flows in the Global Forest Product Model When prices are high enough to outbid traditional users When collection costs are less than delivered value $45/BDT $32/BDT Roundwood Fuelwood When more convenient energy is available Source: Adapted from USDA Forest Service Research Paper FPL RP 662

16 Expansion in GFPM from 1 to 3 fuel feedstock end uses Potential overlap with CCS Biofuel Feedstock Cellulosic Biofuel Fuel Feedstock Power Feedstock Electricity Heat Feedstock Industrial and residential heat 7/3/12 16

17 Energy supply with negative carbon emissions will be the poor cousin of a building products with negative carbon emissions strategy 1. Indirect carbon negative benefits Energy savings from using wood not steel and cement in buildings. Most of the gain will have to occur in Asia. 2. Direct carbon neutral benefits Liquid biofuel end users will compete with the pulp and paper sector. 3. Direct carbon negative benefits Sawmill residues, post-consumer residues, logging residues, and forest mortality can be used as 5-100% of the feedstock for cogeneration plants with CO2 capture and storage. 7/3/12 17