Ecocrop suitability modeling

Transcription

1 Ecocrop suitability modeling Data Analysis Workshop and Adaptation Strategy Development Arusha Tanzania, 4-6 June 2013 Peter Laderach Anton Eitzinger ccafs.cgiar.org

2 outline What is Ecocrop? FAO Ecocrop plant database Suitability modeling with Ecocrop Modeling Ecocrop with DIVA GIS Calibrating ecological ranges (using literature) Projecting suitability into the future

3 The database was developed 1992 by the Land and Water Development Division of FAO (AGLL) as a tool to identify plant species for given environments and uses, and as an information system contributing to a Land Use Planning concept. In October 2000 Ecocrop went on-line under its own URL The database now held information on more than 2000 species. In 2001 Hijmans developed the basic mechanistic model (also named EcoCrop) to calculate crop suitability index using FAO Ecocrop database in DIVA GIS. In 2011, CIAT (Ramirez-Villegas et al.) further developed the model, providing calibration and evaluation procedures.

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5 Common bean

6 database held information on more than 2000 species

7 Suitability modeling with Ecocrop EcoCrop, originally by Hijman et al. (2001), was further developed, providing calibration and evaluation procedures (Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2011). How does it work? It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature

8 What happens on a Ecocrop model run? 1 Growing season kilometer grid cells (climate environments) The suitability of a location (grid cell) for a crop is evaluated for each of the 12 potential growing seasons.

9 For temperature suitability Ktmp: absolute temperature that will kill the plant Tmin: minimum average temperature at which the plant will grow Topmin: minimum average temperature at which the plant will grow optimally Topmax: maximum average temperature at which the plant will grow optimally Tmax: maximum average temperature at which the plant will cease to grow For rainfall suitability Rmin: minimum rainfall (mm) during the growing season Ropmin: optimal minimum rainfall (mm) during the growing season Ropmax: optimal maximum rainfall (mm) during the growing season Rmax: maximum rainfall (mm) during the growing season Length of the growing season Gmin: minimun days of growing season Gmax: maximum days of growing season T suit = 100 Tkill = 4 + Tkill (initial) Topmin Topmax Popmin Popmax T (X) T min T opmin T min = T suit 1 T (X) T opmax T max T opmax = T suit Tkill Tmin Tmax Pmin Pmax T suit = 0

10 Growing season: xx days (average of Gmin/Gmax) Temperature suitability (between 0 100%) If the average minimum temperature in one of these months is 4C or less above Ktmp, it is assumed that, on average, KTMP will be reached on one day of the month, and the crop will die. The temperature suitability of that month is thus 0%. If this is not the case, the temperature suitability is evaluated for that month using the other temperature parameters. The overall temperature suitability of a grid cell for a crop, for any growing season, is the lowest suitability score for any of the consecutive number of months needed to complete the growing season Rainfall suitability (between 0 100%) The evaluation for rainfall is similar as for temperature, except that there is no killing rainfall and there is one evaluation for the total growing period (the number of months defined by Gmin and Gmax) and not for each month. The output is the highest suitability score (percentage) for a growing season starting in any month of the year. Total suitability = TempSUIT * RainSUIT

11 Modeling Ecocrop with DIVA GIS Start DIVA GIS Add layer (study area) Check climate database (menubar: tools-options) Start Ecocrop Double check climate database

12 Select a crop Change to Parameters

13 Its running depending on geographical extent it can take some time

14 RESULTS: current beans suitability (FAO parameter)

15 Calibrating ecological ranges (using literature) Search on the USB stick in folder literature/ecocrop: Beebe, S., Ramirez, J., Jarvis, A., Rao, I. M., Mosquera, G., Bueno, J. M., & Blair, M. W. (2011). Chapter 16 Genetic Improvement of Common Beans and the Challenges of Climate Change. Challenges. Search inside the document for parameters to adjust our model TIP!! use document search & search for example Tmin Change parameters in DIVA GIS and run the model again Use different output name

16 RESULTS: current beans suitability (calibrated)

17 Projecting suitability into the future No, we can change the climate database and predict crop suitability for the future

18 RESULTS: future beans suitability (prediction 2030)

19 Exercises Calculate the change of suitability for beans change = future current use: GRID, overlay, substract Run the model for cassava find parameters in paper (literature folder)

20 Ecocrop suitability modeling Data Analysis Workshop and Adaptation Strategy Development Arusha Tanzania, 4-6 June 2013 Peter Laderach Anton Eitzinger Asante sana! ccafs.cgiar.org