Alaska Climate Change Issues & 2009 Defense Workshop

Transcription

1 Alaska Climate Change Issues & 2009 Defense Workshop William D. Goran and Jon Zufelt Engineer Research and Development Center U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CASI Website: Farber Drive. P.O. Box Champaign, Illinois Facsimile:

2 Outline Warming in Alaska Impacts of change Impacts related to Defense assets (2009 Workshop) Arctic changes Adaptation

3 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Climate change, energy security, and economic security are inextricably linked DOD will work to foster efforts to assess, adapt to, and mitigate the impacts of climate change

4 Alaska s Climate Change Impacts Warming: Over the past 50 years, Alaska has warmed at more than twice the rate of the rest of the United States average. Its annual average temperature has increased 3.4 F, while winters have warmed even more, by 6.3 F.

5 Changing Temperatures Over the past 150 years, the break-up date of river and lake ice has advanced by 9.7 days, while freeze-up date has become later by 8.7 days IPCC Source: John Walsh International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

6 Impacts of Alaska Warming As a result of this warming, climate change impacts are much more pronounced than in other regions of the United States. The higher temperatures are already contributing to earlier spring snowmelt, reduced sea ice, widespread glacier retreat, and permafrost warming.

7 Warming Impacts in Alaska Glacier Retreat, Early Spring Thaw. Permafrost Thawing Habitat Shifts, Forest Pest Infestations and Fire Susceptibility Coastal Storm Damage (erosion and infrastructure loss) Arctic Ice Reduction, Increased Navigation and Exploration

8 Increased Beetle Infestations

9 Pond Size Reductions 180 to 10 Acres 90 to 4 Acres

10 Selawik Slump, Summer 2009 The Selawik Slump is a large (9 acres) retrogressive thaw slumps in a boreal forest in NW Alaska. Slumps occur when frozen ground thaws on a slope, causing it to collapse. The headwall of the slump is now about 80 feet high. Source: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks

11 Alaska Climate Change Workshop Key emerging needs from workshop: Climate impacts affecting built infrastructure Evaluation of the Alaska Arctic coastline to identify locations for ports Develop cost-effective, rapidly deployable technologies for ports of shore-based infrastructure (Military operations, SAR, spill response, etc) Role of climate change in ecological succession pathways and effects on military training. SERDP 2011 SON

12 Alaska Military Training Ranges AF Air Force Training Zones

13 Predicted Changes Alaska Soil Temperatures

14 Climate Change Impacts on Alaska Military Lands Impacts of climate change differ for lowlands with ice-rich permafrost (left), where climate warming is causing widespread permafrost degradation and hydrologic reorganization, and for uplands with thaw-stable bedrock (right), where warming is causing drier soils and more frequent fires.

15 Arctic Sea Ice Changes

16 Arctic Ice Predictions

17 Impacts of Reduced Ice Recent studies indicate extent of sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean may have reduced as much as 10%, and thinned by as much as 15%, over the past few decades. As a result, there may be improved shipping accessibility around the margins of the Arctic Basin & increased off-shore oil exploration (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment - ACIA 2004). cientific.html

18 The U.S. Navy s Task Force Climate Change Maritime Strategy Climate change is gradually opening up the waters of the Arctic These opportunities offer potential for growth, they are potential sources of competition for access and natural resources

19 Habitat Shifts Northward

20 Pipeline Adaptation When permafrost thaws, it can cause the soil to sink or settle, damaging structures built upon or within that soil. A warming climate and burial of supports for the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System both contribute to thawing of the permafrost around the pipeline. Thermal siphons were designed to disperse heat to the air that would otherwise be transferred to the soil, and these siphons were placed on the pilings that support the pipeline.

21 Some Adaptation Considerations* Understanding the nature of impacts Adaptive responses must accommodate different populations The effects of climate change must be considered in the context of other important stressors (e.g. land use change, population growth, water supply constraints) Many adaptation opportunities address multiple stressors, and make sense regardless of the pace or severity of changing climatic conditions *Dr. Joel Scheraga, EPA, Preparing for a Changing Climate in Alaska, 2007

22 Climate Change Forum Inter-Agency Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Forum Over 25 agencies involved, including many Defense participants Forum next session: 22 April Joe Thompson, GAO Accounting for Climate Change, Priorities across Agencies CAPT Tim Gallaudet U.S. Navy s Task Force Climate Change Chris Pyke - U.S. Green Building Council, Designing for a Changing Climate Contact: ccforum@fedcenter.gov

23 Questions?

24 Selected Resources Alaska Defense Workshop: U.S. Global Change Research Program, U.S. Assessment at: FINAL COMMISSION REPORT Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission, Alaska State Legislature, March 17, report_ pdf Climate Change in Alaska, at: USGS National Assessment: Climate Change Impacts in Alaska at: