American Boiler Manufacturers Association's 2010 Summer Meeting Santa Ana Pueblo, New Mexico June 28, 2010

Transcription

1 Roger A. Pielke Sr. University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO American Boiler Manufacturers Association's 2010 Summer Meeting Santa Ana Pueblo, New Mexico June 28, 2010

2 Human-Caused Climate Change Has Become One Of The Highest Political Priorities in the United States and Worldwide

3 Climate change is a clear and present danger to our world that demands immediate attention. Facts on the ground are outstripping worse-case scenario models that were developed only a few years ago. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

4 My Conclusion I agree that there is no question that human activity is resulting in an increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide [CO 2 ]

5 Science Organizations Remind Senators of the Consensus on Climate Change Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.

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7 Hypothesis #1 The human influence on climate variability and change is of minimal importance, and natural causes dominate climate variations and changes on all time scales. In coming decades, the human influence will continue to be minimal

8 Hypothesis #2 Although the natural causes of climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important, the human influences are significant and are dominated by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the most important of which is carbon dioxide. The impact of these gases on regional and global climate constitutes the primary climate issue for the coming decades

9 Hypothesis #3 Although the natural causes of climate variation and changes are undoubtedly important, human influences are significant and involve a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not dominated by the human input of CO 2. Most, if not all, of these human influences on regional and global climate will continue to be of concern during the coming decades.

10 Only ONE of these hypotheses can be correct

11 Important Findings Climate Variability and Change Are Much More Than Global Warming or Cooling Even with Global Warming only about 25-30% (my analysis), 40% (Shindell et al. 2009) or 58% (the IPCC view) is from CO 2 [ Humans Produce Both Global Warming and Global Cooling Forcings

12 National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp.

13 From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp.

14 Examples Of Important Non- Greenhouse Gas Climate Forcings

15 REGIONAL LAND-USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CLIMATE IN FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER

16 U.S. Geological Survey land-cover classes for pre-1900 s natural conditions (left) and 1993 land-use patterns (right). From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132,

17 Max and Min Temp Trends

18 From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132,

19 Associated convective rainfall (mm) from the model simulations of July-August 1973 with pre-1900s land cover (top), 1993 land use (middle), and the difference field for the two (bottom; 1993 minus pre-1900s case). From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132,

20 Same as previous figure except for July and August, From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132,

21 Two-month average of the daily maximum shelter-level temperature ( C) from the model simulations of Jul-Aug 1989 with (top) natural land cover, (middle) current land cover. From Marshall et al. 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132,

22 Conclusion: Most locations in south and central Florida are drier and warmer today than they would be under the same large-scale weather patterns prior to the 20 th century due just to landscape change.

23 This Effect Of Landscape Change Is A Global Climate Change Issue

24 Albedo: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992 Historical Patterns of Broadband Solar Albedo: (a) 1650 (b) 1850 (c) 1920 (d) 1992 Source: Steyaert, L. T., and R. G. Knox, 2008: Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of landatmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02101, doi: /2006jd

25 Surface Roughness Length: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992 Historical Patterns of Surface Roughness Length (cm): (a) 1650 (b) 1850 (c) 1920 (d) 1992 Source: Steyaert, L. T., and R. G. Knox, 2008: Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02101, doi: /2006jd

26 a.) Maximum temperature (ºC) with 1992 land cover. Dashed box shows area of region 1 and solid box shows area of region 2. Difference in maximum temperature between 1992 and b.) 1650, c.) 1850, d.) From Strack, J.E., R.A. Pielke Sr, L.T. Steyaert, and R.G. Knox, 2008: Sensitivity of June near-surface temperatures and precipitation in the eastern United States to historical land cover changes since European settlement. Water Resources Research, 44, W11401, doi: / 2007WR

27 Conclusion: The eastern 2/3 of the USA has undergone major climate change as a result of landscape conversion

28 From: Adegoke, J.O., R.A. Pielke Sr., and A.M. Carleton, 2007: Observational and modeling studies of the impacts of agriculture-related land use change on climate in the central U.S. Agric. Forest Meteor., Special Issue, 132, /files/2009/10/r-295.pdf

29 Figure 1. Shortwave aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) for top-of atmosphere (TOA), surface, and atmosphere. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi: /2006gl

30 Figure 5. Comparison of the meridional and the zonal component of NGoRF between infrared GRF, shortwave ADRF, and shortwave AIRF for atmosphere and surface. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi: /2006gl

31 In Matsui and Pielke Sr. (2006), it was found from observations of the spatial distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere in the lower latitudes, that the aerosol effect on atmospheric circulations, as a result of their alteration in the heating of regions of the atmosphere, is 60 times greater than due to the heating effect of the human addition of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi: /2006gl

32 Extensive peer-reviewed research has shown that the focus on just carbon dioxide as the dominate human climate forcing is too narrow. Hypothesis #1 and #2 are refuted Natural variations are important, and also, the human influence is significant, but it involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of greenhouse gases including CO 2.

33 These other forcings, such as landuse change and from atmospheric pollution aerosols, may have a greater effect on our climate than the effects that have been claimed for CO 2

34 The acceptance of CO 2 as a pollutant by the EPA, yet it is a climate forcing not a traditional atmospheric pollutant, opens up a wide range of other climate forcings which the EPA could similarly regulate (e.g., land use, water vapor).

35 What Does The Other Climate Data Tell Us? 1) There is no regional predictive skill by the multi-decadal global models decades into the future; 2) Even the global average climate metrics, such as global warming, are not being accurately predicted by these models

36 Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), , "Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported."

37 The Real World Data - Examples

38 Figure 2. Vertical relative weighting functions for each of the channels discussed on this website. The vertical weighting function describes the relative contribution that microwave radiation emitted by a layer in the atmosphere makes to the total intensity measured above the atmosphere by the satellite. The weighting functions are available on the FTP site at ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions From:

39 TLT From: m/msu/msu_data_ description.html TMT TTS TLS

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43 From Lyman et al, 2010: Robust warming of the global upper ocean, Nature, Vol. 465,

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45 What do the locations where the surface temperature data is collected look like?

46 Fort Morgan site showing images of the cardinal directions from the sensor (from Hanamean et al. 2003)

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48 Santa Ana, Orange County CA site situated on the rooftop of the local fire department. See related article and photos at: and

49 Photo taken at Roseburg, OR (MMTS shelter on roof, near a/c exhaust)

50 Buffalo Bill Dam, Cody WY shelter on top of a stone wall at the edge of the river. It is surrounded by stone building heat sinks except on the river side. On the river it is exposed to waters of varying temperatures, cold in spring and winter, warm in summer and fall as the river flows vary with the season. The level of spray also varies, depending on river flow.

51 Lampasas, TX, February 10,

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53 Conclusion: There is a significant amount of real world data that conflicts with the findings in the 2007 IPCC report

54 Why Has Hypothesis #3 Not Received Attention? A main reason for the failure to accurately communicate climate science to the policymakers is a result of the real conflict of interest among the leadership of the climate community.

55 The IPCC and CCSP assessments, as well as the science statements completed by the AGU, AMS, and NRC, are completed by a small subset of climate scientists who are led by the same individuals. They are evaluating the robustness of their own research.

56 One Example of a Conflict of Interest - Tom Karl, Director of the National Climatic Data Center

57 Conflict of Interest in the CCSP Report Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences Complete report - Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Thomas R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol, Christopher D. Miller, and William L. Murray, editors, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.

58 Science Assessments Should Not Be Completed By Scientists Who Are Assessing Their Own Research

59 How Do We Move Forward?

60 POLICYMAKERS SHOULD LOOK FOR WIN-WIN POLICIES IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THE ENVIRONMENT WE LIVE IN The costs and benefits of the regulation of the emissions of CO 2 into the atmosphere need to be evaluated together with all other possible environmental regulations. The goal should be to seek politically and technologically practical ways to reduce the vulnerability of the environment and society to the entire spectrum of human-caused and natural risks.

61 From: Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: Global climate models - Many contributing influences. Citizen's Guide to Colorado Climate Change, Colorado Climate Foundation for Water Education, pp

62 To Move Forward We Need A Bottom-Up Resource Based Focus, Rather Than Relying On Downscaling From Global Climate Models

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64 RECOMMENDATIONS Ø National and International climate assessments should be written by climate scientists without significant conflicts of interest. Ø The focus on reducing threats from climate, and other environmental, variability and change should be resourcebased, and with a local and regional vulnerability perspective to start with (i.e., a "bottom-up assessment). Policy actions which optimize the entire spectrum of benefits for society and the environment should be the goal.

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66 Roger Pielke Sr. Research Websites

67 PowerPoint Presentation Prepared by Dallas Jean Staley Research Assistant and Webmaster University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado