Adaptation for and with biodiversity

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2 Adaptation for and with biodiversity Why it is dangerous to neglect our best ally Konstantin Kreiser EU Policy Manager European Division - BirdLife International

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4 Climate change represents an unprecedented challenge for biodiversity and ecosystems How is biodiversity affected? Why should we care about nature in times of climate change? How can we help nature adapt? How should people adapt? REALITY CHECK!

5 How is biodiversity affected? Climate space climate envelopes move northwards and uphill Timing of seasonal events ecological mismatches (e.g. Cuckoo and its hosts) Extreme weather events impacts on populations/species Community ecology competitive advantages, invasive species, diseases Land use and management changes unprecedented scale and speed against background of massive habitats loss, ecosystem degradation and overexploitation

6 How is biodiversity affected?

7 A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds Using three bioclimatic variables (summer warmth, winter cold, moisture availability) Modelling current distribution of all breeding bird species today comparing with observed distribution (European Breeding Bird Atlas) as quality check Nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos) Observed distribution (AUC = 0 981; = 0 858) Simulated distribution

8 A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds Modelling future distribution under moderate CC scenario (3 degree increase by end 21 century) Observed current distribution Barn Swallow (Hirundo rustica) Simulated late 21st century distribution 91 % range overlap

9 A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) 39% overlap

10 A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds Red Kite (Milvus milvus) Luscinia megarhynchos 14% overlap

11 A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds AVERAGE SPECIES : km N-NE range shift - 20% range decrease More species lose range than gain Average overlap 40% - but for some no overlap at all (Sub)arctic and some Iberian species will suffer most Increased extinction risks!

12 BUT - will these range shifts be realized? There are a lot of unknowns! The reality might look much worse! Temperature increase might be much stronger Habitat availability will limit species range shifts (complex changes, time, fragmentation and land-use) Dispersal abilities of species vary and may be limited by other pressures/threats Changes in timing of seasonal events can result in a series of ecological mismatches Populations might decrease even if range changes are realised

13 Why should we care? Can t nature help itself? Can we still afford to care about wildlife? Shouldn t we ignore biodiversity concerns when rolling out renewable energy installations? Shouldn t we speed up high-tech, large-scale adaptation measures (dams, irrigation, GMOs, )

14 Why should we care? Moral obligation to preserve the diversity of life for its intrinsic values and beauty - for future generations Human wellbeing and long-term economic prosperity depend on a complex web of ecosystem services Ecosystems are complex but evidence points at close link biodiversity ecosystem services human wellbeing Biodiversity already declines rapidly due to overexploitation of the biosphere climate change comes on top of other pressures!

15 Nature: Our best ally against climate change Mitigation: Marine and terrestrial ecosystems absorb roughly half of human emissions. But destruction and degradation turns sinks into sources. Our best ally may become an enemy

16 Nature: Our best ally against climate change Adaptation Functioning and diverse ecosystems provide protection /buffer against effects of climate change (e.g. mangroves, coral reefs, natural river floodplains as flood protection, ) Ecosystem based-adaptation (CBD AHTEC, April 2009) = use of sustainable ecosystem management activities to support planned adaptation - management/conservation/restoration of ecosystems to provide services that enable people to adapt to CC - at all levels, short-term and long-term benefits - often more cost-effective and more accessible to rural/poor communities than traditional hard measures

17 How can we help nature adapt? 1) Increase resilience of our natural environment tackle non-climate pressures! 2) Accommodate change - buy time: maintain appropriate conditions as long as possible (at site level) - bridge the gap: coherent networks of protected areas, green infrastructure, biodiversity friendly land-use across the landscape

18 Tackle non-climate pressures! See EU 2010 Biodiversity Action Plan! nature protection (sites, species, habitats) EU Nature Directives /Natura 2000 Financing for Natura 2000 and biodiversity Tackle Invasive Alien Species (legislation) biodiversity friendly land-use and spatial planning reform agriculture and fisheries policies implement WaterFD, adopt Soil Directive improve and respect EIA/SEA/AA assessments address the drivers of biodiversity loss, reduce ecological footprint

19 Accommodate change! Assessing CC impacts on the network of Important Bird Areas in Africa and Europe Protected areas will become even more important, but management needs to take into account Climate Change

20 Accommodate change! Strengthen, enlarge and better connect protected areas as strongholds for biodiversity Address expected changes in habitat and site management Create stepping stones between current and future areas Reinforce restoration and increase protection of populations, especially in expected overlap areas Increase monitoring and research of actual changes, adjust strategies and targets Implement and strengthen the tools we have at hand e.g. Birds and Habitats Directives!

21 REALITY CHECK EU to fail 2010 biodiversity target Natura 2000 underfinanced, many sites threatened Lack of coherent and strategic spatial planning (see Renewable Energy Directive); CAP and CFP reform lobbies block progress Soil Directive blocked by DE, FR, UK EU Biofuels Target threatens global ecosystems;

22 How should people adapt? Urgently, with higher priority, with more funding. In a strategic and sustainable way. All measures must support ecosystem resilience. Ecosystem based adaptation instead of expensive high-impact measures. Restore terrestrial and marine ecosystems, increase their resilience and accommodate change for biodiversity. Communicate, build partnerships, demonstrate links between CC and biodiversity, research.

23 REALITY CHECK EU White Paper on Adaptation (April 2009) Good starting point, good analysis, good references to importance of ecosystems - BUT Ecosystems mainly seen as just another sector affected by climate change Concrete recommendations watered down in the process Lacking sense of importance and urgency (comprehensive strategy only from 2013 )

24 REALITY CHECK White Paper DRAFT January 2009: 1) Ensure that national strategies and rural programmes for encourage additional funding for climate change adaptation. 2) Explore the possibility for the CAP to discourage unsustainable practices likely to [ ] to reduce ecosystem resilience in vulnerable regions. FINAL VERSION April 2009: 1) Ensure that measures for adaptation and water management are embedded in rural development national strategies and programmes 2) give adequate support for sustainable production including how the CAP contributes to the efficient use of water in agriculture

25 REALITY CHECK Environment Council Conclusions 25th June Role of ecosystems recognised, but very weak wording on ecosystem based adaptation expected EU support for adaptation in developing countries European Council postponed decision to October dangerous signal to the rest of the world Business Europe: reject any agreement on international climate financing that "would add burdens for European industry (ENDS 18/06/09)

26 Conclusion I At a moment in history where more than ever before we need a strong Planet [ ], we have pushed it to the weakest point ever. Grasping the climate crisis Bo Ekman Johan Rockström Anders Wijkman A Provocation of the Tällberg Foundation

27 Conclusion II "maintaining natural ecosystems is essential to meet the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC CBD AHTEC on biodiversity and climate change

28 Conclusion III From 2010 the EU must scale up its action for biodiversity otherwise action on climate change will not be credible, and not effective.

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