Short term techno-economic feasibility of renewable jet fuel production

Transcription

1 Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Short term techno-economic feasibility of renewable jet fuel production S. de Jong, R. Hoefnagels, A. Faaij, R. Slade, B. Mawhood, M. Junginger EUBCE Vienna, 3 June 2015

2 Introducing the RENJET project Renewable Jet Fuel Supply Chain Development and Flight Operations (RENJET) Aim: to develop and enable regional renewable jet fuel supply chains in Europe, and to create innovative financial business models to increase and sustain renewable jet fuel off-take. 2

3 Introducing renewable jet fuel (RJF) Context of RJF RJF requirements Emission reduction in aviation is necessary Fully drop-in fuel Only viable alternative for aviation Sustainability is key No European mandates/incentive schemes in place Conversion pathways require ASTM certification 3

4 Observed research gaps An assessment of the short-term techno-economic feasibility of renewable jet fuel (RJF) production Comparison of greenfield n th plant production facilities Comprehensive harmonized comparison of conversion pathways expected to be ASTM certified for commercial aviation by 2020 N th versus pioneer (first-of-a-kind) production facilities Correct for the pioneering nature of RJF production technologies in this timeframe Greenfield versus co-production strategies Quantify the benefits of co-producing RJF alongside supply chains in the pulp, wheat ethanol and beet sugar industry 4

5 Study scope: co-production strategies Existing production facility ( incubator facility ) Co-locating: producing B alongside A without changing the existing production line. Retro-fitting: producing B alongside A by altering the existing production line. Repurposing: producing B instead of A. 5

6 Study scope: conversion pathways Sectors Feedstocks Conversion technologies Forestry residues Gasification + Fischer-Tropsch (FT)* Pulp and paper Black liquor Hog fuel Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) Wheat ethanol Wheat straw Pyrolysis Beet sugar Beet pulp Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Renewable jet fuel Molasses Direct Sugars to Hydrocarbons (DSHC or SIP)* Legend Retro-fitting Used Cooking Oil Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA or HRJ)* Co-location and greenfield * Already ASTM certified Greenfield 6

7 Study method Base model: Greenfield & n th plant A standardized techno-economic framework (SCENT 1 ) was used Technology-specific inputs were retrieved from existing process modelling studies Evaluation metric: minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) in GJ -1, i.e. the required selling price of RJF for a zero NPV Supplemented with and/or Pioneer plant A pioneer plant analysis from RAND coorporation 2 was used to determine for each conversion pathway: Potential capital cost growth Potential plant availability in year 1 Co-production strategies Standardized procedure to quantify benefits of co-location, retro-fit and repurpose strategies Localized parameters at 290 pulp, wheat ethanol and beet sugar facilities across the EU 1. Ereev SY and Patel MK, Standardized cost estimation for new technologies (SCENT) - methodology and tool. J Bus Chem 9 (2012). 2. Merrow W, Phillips K and Myers C, Understanding Cost Growth and Performance Shortfalls in Pioneer Process Plants. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, US (1981)

8 HEFA (UCO) FT (FR) FT (WS) HTL (FR) HTL (WS) Pyr (FR) Pyr (WS) ATJ (FR) ATJ (WS) DSHC (FR) DSHC (WS) MFSP RJF ( GJ -1 ) MFSP RJF ( t -1 ) Results: HTL, HEFA and pyrolysis yield lowest MFSPs 200 Greenfield & nth plant Abbreviations UCO = Used Cooking Oil FR = Forestry residues WS = Wheat straw Nth plant HEFA = Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids FT = Fischer-Tropsch HTL = Hydrothermal Liquefaction Pyr = Pyrolysis ATJ = Alcohol-to-Jet DSHC = Direct Sugars to Hydrocarbons Legend Top ten percentile of the fossil jet fuel in the period Average fossil jet fuel price 2014 Bottom ten percentile of the fossil jet fuel in the period

9 HEFA (UCO) FT (FR) FT (WS) HTL (FR) HTL (WS) Pyr (FR) Pyr (WS) ATJ (FR) ATJ (WS) DSHC (FR) DSHC (WS) MFSP RJF ( GJ -1 ) MFSP RJF ( t -1 ) Results: HEFA is currenty the most feasible option 200 Greenfield & pioneer plant Abbreviations UCO = Used Cooking Oil FR = Forestry residues WS = Wheat straw Pioneer plant Nth plant HEFA = Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids FT = Fischer-Tropsch HTL = Hydrothermal Liquefaction Pyr = Pyrolysis ATJ = Alcohol-to-Jet DSHC = Direct Sugars to Hydrocarbons Legend Top ten percentile of the fossil jet fuel in the period Average fossil jet fuel price 2014 Bottom ten percentile of the fossil jet fuel in the period

10 10 Sensitivity analysis Abbreviations UCO = Used Cooking Oil FR = Forestry residues WS = Wheat straw Results are nuanced: Considerable ranges and uncertainties exist HEFA, HTL and pyrolysis still have lowest MFSP MFSP of DSHC and ATJ fall within the uncertainty range of most other pathways HEFA = Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids FT = Fischer-Tropsch HTL = Hydrothermal Liquefaction Pyr = Pyrolysis ATJ = Alcohol-to-Jet DSHC = Direct Sugars to Hydrocarbons Legend Top ten percentile of the fossil jet fuel in the period Average fossil jet fuel price 2014 Bottom ten percentile of the fossil jet fuel in the period

11 Results: Co-production strategies can lower the MFSP with 4-8% Greenfield vs. Co-production MFSP ranges due to location specific parameters Reduction in MFSP (%) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% FT (FR) FT (WS) HTL (FR) HTL (WS) Pyr (FR) Pyr (WS) ATJ (FR) ATJ (WS) DSHC (FR) DSHC (WS) 9% Legend Beet sugar mill Pulp mills Wheat ethanol plants Mean percentage deviation from the average MFSP Abbreviations FR = Forestry residues WS = Wheat straw Legend nth plant pioneer plant 11

12 Conclusion and further research Conclusion: short term outlook for RJF production Now: HEFA pathway achieves the lowest MFSP and is commercially available, but sustainable feedstock supply limits production volume and current feedstock prices make it challenging to reach price parity with fossil jet fuel Short term: HTL and Pyrolysis emerge as an attractive alternative None of the pathways is expected to produce below the top ten percentile of historic fossil jet prices on the short term (i.e. before 2020). Therefore, there is need for a mechanism to cover the price premium (e.g. policies, subsidies or industry co-funding mechanisms). Co-production can be a useful strategy, especially in the first stages of RJF development. Taking into account technology-specific integration of process units and material and energy flows is expected to further reduce the MFSP Further research Include technological learning effects, biomass price dynamics as well as changing policy landscapes to determine long term outlook (RENJET) Further research on specific conversion pathways is recommended; real-time validation is necessary to reduce uncertainties (RENJET Catalytic Pyrolysis and HTL) 12

13 Questions Contact details Study reference The feasibility of short-term production strategies for renewable jet fuels A comprehensive techno-economic comparison S De Jong, R Hoefnagels, A Faaij, R Slade, B Mawhood, M Junginger (To be submitted) 13