Reducing Transportation Emissions: Travel Demand Measures

Transcription

1 Reducing Transportation Emissions: Travel Demand Measures Mark Houdashelt, Policy Analyst Center for Clean Air Policy Dialogue on Future International Actions to Address Global Climate Change Paris, France April 19, 2006 Presentation Outline Overview of Transportation Emissions Travel Demand Management Policies & Impacts Transportation and CDM Experience Program of Activities CDM Post-2012 Climate Policy Sectoral Approach» Straw proposal» Monitoring and modeling» Sectoral travel demand components Concluding Thoughts and Issues for Discussion 2

2 Overview of Transportation Emissions Transportation emissions:» Currently 22% of global CO 2 emissions» Growing rapidly developing country transport CO 2 to double by 2025 due to rapid growth in number of vehicles and VKT Three factors drive transportation emissions:» Travel activity (VKT)» Vehicle energy/emissions intensity» Fuel carbon content 3 Efficiency Gains Swamped by VKT Growth: CCAP Forecast for China Relative Growth (2000 = 100%) 900% 800% 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% Vehicle Kilometers Kilometers per Liter CO2 Emissions 200% 100%

3 Examples of Travel Demand Management Policies ( Smart Growth ) Low-GHG Modes of Transport» Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)» Bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure Land Use» Transit-oriented development» Increased density, mix of uses, improved design» Infill and brownfield development Incentives» Target infrastructure funding to efficient locations (central, near transit)» Pricing: roads, parking, insurance» Carpool incentives 5 Slowing Growth in Travel Demand Recent studies link urban form and travel demand» E.g., Ewing et al. (2002): the degree of sprawl is the strongest influence on VKT per capita MPO studies in the U.S. show that comprehensive smart growth can slow VKT growth by 3% 20%» Potentially greater savings in VKT for faster growing developing countries with high transit and non-motorized (NMT) mode shares A package of BRT, walking and biking policies can reduce CO 2 by 25% (Wright & Fulton, 2005) Travel demand reduction has strong co-benefits: energy savings, air quality, mobility, quality of life, economic development, etc. 6

4 CO 2 Savings and Cost per Ton for BRT and Non-Motorized Transport Scenarios Annual CO 2 % CO 2 Cost Fuel Costs Net Cost Reduction (t) Reduction ($/tco 2 ) ($/tco 2 ) ($/tco 2 ) 1) BRT (5%) 100, % 66 ($99) ($33) 2) BRT (10%) 200, % 59 ($97) ($38) 3) Package (BRT, NMT) 620, % 30 ($91) ($61) CCAP, based on Wright & Fulton (2005) Fuel savings worth much more than CO 2 savings But, future fuel savings do not provide up-front capital for transit investments 7 Transportation & CDM Experience Only one transport CDM project in the pipeline and a few seeking meth panel approval, including Mexico City and Bogotá BRT Travel demand projects are projected to save much more than fuel switching or technology projects but are very difficult to score Project-level savings can reduce metropolitan GHGs by a few percent Comprehensive policies including land use, walking, biking, transit could save 25% (CCAP, Wright & Fulton) 8

5 Program of Activities CDM Case Study: Regional BRT Development in India CCAP Case Study based on India s First National Urban Transport Policy (2005)» Helps finance metropolitan mass transit systems One baseline and monitoring methodology could be developed for the entire regional BRT network and applied to each BRT corridor Need to improve travel data, travel models Program of activities CDM may lower transaction costs but does not reduce methodological barriers to transportation sector projects. 9 Sectoral Approach: Straw Proposal on Travel Demand Premise: A metropolitan region (or country) commits to implement policies to reduce transport GHGs by X% below its baseline; any further reductions could be sold (or financed) Select emissions reduction targets (e.g., VKT or VKT per capita) Establish a baseline (using travel models) Implement a comprehensive package of policies to reduce VKT» BRT, land use (regional & local), walking and biking Measure travel patterns Compare to baseline to assess savings 10

6 Sectoral Approach: Baseline Modeling Establish a dynamic baseline to set the no-lose target Use regional travel model to establish VKT by mode, VKT per capita and calculate GHGs Re-run model periodically to adjust for:» Changes in population, GDP, fuel economy» Establish VKT and GHGs with and without package of travel demand policies (infrastructure, incentives, etc.) 11 Sectoral Approach: Monitoring Gather regional travel data through origin-destination (O-D) surveys» Provides full picture of travel movement across all modes» Addresses leakage concerns of project-level approach Use VKT data to calculate GHG emissions Few developing country cities, such as Santiago de Chile, attempt this level of travel data measurement While every 1-2 years would be ideal to assess the impact of the program on the region, every 3-5 years may be sufficient, given that every 10 years is typical. 12

7 Sectoral GHG Reductions through Travel Demand Measures So, how can we support sectoral approaches for travel demand reduction? 1. Data and modeling improvements 2. Visioning and scenario planning 3. Leadership 4. Enhanced financing 5. Coordinated policies & supportive policies Data and Modeling Improvements Improvement in travel data and models is needed to more accurately model the baseline Data collection is expensive:» At the project level, it will be similar to the CER value» But at the regional level, costs are distributed over more tons Moreover, improved data and models are critical for implementing sustainable transport policies and achieving their multiple benefits The international community can help build this basic technical capacity through funding, technical exchanges» Important to build local interest in investing in data improvements 14

8 2. Visioning and Scenario Planning Use scenario analyses to quantify risks of pursuing BAU policies and the benefits of more integrated transport & land use policies (20-40 year time frame) Tie to issues of local concern: air quality, energy use, infrastructure costs, traffic congestion, water use, etc. Helps identify policy solutions and builds public support for a preferred growth strategy to guide development Successful application in small U.S. cities (Sacramento, Salt Lake City) has generated strong support from the public, elected officials and real estate developers Local Leadership International assistance can help get things started but cannot force local change» Especially since most Annex I countries do not have long-term sustainability plans for transportation Political leaders (in any country) will only pursue longterm sustainability solutions if the following conditions hold:» They have an appreciation of the GHG impacts and economic risks of current policies and trends (opportunity costs)» They are aware of policy solutions with tangible short-term benefits (e.g., health, congestion relief) Assistance may be needed to:» Improve capacity to quantify local benefits (data, quantitative tools)» Aid with implementation (ideas and policy mechanisms) 16

9 4. Enhanced Financing Local resources are required, but are not likely to be sufficient for infrastructure, technology investments Can we increase international financing for sustainable transportation? (World Bank, GEF, USAID, ADB)» E.g., GEF Bus Rapid Transit in Mexico City (EMBARQ)» Also important to consider where development bank funding works counter to the goals of climate protection E.g., road building, economic development projects in locations without good transit or pedestrian access Development banks should review GHG impacts of their transport & infrastructure projects, and develop more climate-friendly portfolios Are there other Annex I transfer/investment options?» Private foreign direct investment (FDI)?» Debt relief? Decontamination Bonds? Supporting Policies & International Agreements Coordinate measures at local, national levels Share best practices on:» Implementing sustainable transport policies» Finding funding sources for sustainable transportation Supportive transport policies are needed» Ethanol can replace 5% of world s transport fuel by 2010 (Fulton, IEA)» Vehicle technology can reduce GHGs by 20-30% over the next decade (CARB, China, EC, Japan) 18

10 Closing Thoughts Current infrastructure and land use decisions shape future travel patterns and emissions for 100 years Delaying investments in planning, transit, NMT puts even more pressure on technology Implementing sustainable solutions now advances multiple policy goals that voters care about Requires deliberate planning, investment and local leadership Sectoral GHG approaches can help foster implementation of travel demand reduction projects and policies 19 Discussion Topics Reactions to CCAP straw proposal on sectoral approach for travel demand? Such an approach cannot work without significant international and local investment in travel data and model improvements» How could such capacity be funded? What other local and international parties should be engaged in this effort? 20

11 For more information: Transportation and the CDM in Chile Transportation & Emissions Trading CCAP Transportation Emissions Guidebook Freight Solutions Dialogue Mark Houdashelt Steve Winkelman 21