Miranda Kirschel (Powered by Atkins) SMR Feasibility Study

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1 Miranda Kirschel (Powered by Atkins) SMR Feasibility Study

2 The SMR Study Global Market Study What is the SMR Market? Why SMRs? How big might it be? How will it be addressed?

3 A work in progress

4 What are the technologies?

5 The trend in SMR development has been towards design certification of small modular reactors, defined as advanced reactors that produce electric power up to 300 MW(e), designed to be built in factories and shipped to utilities for installation as demand arises.

6 Small (25 MWe up) reactors operating / under construction Name Capacity Type Developer CNP MWe PWR CNNC, operational in Pakistan PHWR MWe PHWR NPCIL, India Name Capacity Type Developer KLT-40S 35 MWe PWR OKBM, Russia CAREM 27 MWe PWR CNEA & INVAP, Argentina HTR-PM 2x105 MWe HTR INET & Huaneng, China

7 Small (25 MWe up) reactors development well advanced Name Capacity Type Developer VBER MWe PWR OKBM, Russia IRIS MWe PWR Westinghouse-led, international* Westinghouse SMR 225 MWe PWR Westinghouse, USA* mpower 180 MWe PWR Babcock & Wilcox + Bechtel, USA SMR MWe PWR Holtec, USA ACP MWe PWR CNNC & Guodian, China SMART 100 MWe PWR KAERI, South Korea NuScale 45 MWe PWR NuScale Power + Fluor, USA PBMR 165 MWe HTR PBMR, South Africa; NPMC, USA* Prism 311 MWe FNR GE-Hitachi, USA BREST 300 MWe FNR RDIPE, Russia SVBR MWe FNR AKME-engineering, Russia * well-advanced designs understood to be on hold Source:

8 Small (25 MWe up) reactor designs at earlier stages Name Capacity Type Developer General Atomics EM2 240 MWe HTR, FNR (USA) VK MWe BWR RDIPE, Russia AHWR-300 LEU 300 MWe PHWR BARC, India CAP MWe PWR SNERDI, China ACPR MWe PWR CGN, China SC-HTGR (Antares) 250 MWe HTR Areva Gen4 module 25 MWe FNR Gen4 (Hyperion), USA IMR 350 MWe PWR Mitsubishi, Japan LFTR/TMSR 5, 100 MWe MSR SINAP, China Integral MSR 29, 120, 288 MWe MSR Fuji MSR MWe MSR Leadir-PS MWe lead-cooled Terrestrial Energy, Canada ITHMSI, Japan- Russia-USA Northern Nuclear, Canada Source:

9 Region Trend SMR Activity North America South America Europe Russia MENA Asia Numerous designs at varying levels of maturity Small reactor under construction Interest to own, sell and buy Barge-Mounted SMR being Commercially Deployed Interest for desalination and remote locations ACP100 and HTR-PM starting construction

10 What are the market drivers?

11 (Primary energy) Growth to 2035 is 45% (high) 33% (low) Electricity demand is projected to grow 81% from 2011 to 2035 (from 19,004 TWh to 34,454 TWh) (high), 69% (to 32,150 TWh) (low).

12 Increased demand is most dramatic in Asia, projected to average 4.0% or 3.6% per year respectively to Currently some two billion people have no access to electricity, and it is a high priority to address this lack.

13 Total electricity consumption in the world today: 4.8TW Total nuclear electricity: 500GW Anticipated need in 2035 to be approx: 9TW Nuclear power provides about 11% of the world's electricity 21% of electricity in OECD countries 2035 ~900GW of nuclear, which represents a new nuclear market of ~700GW

14 Energy Needs Low carbon energy sources Continuous Energy Supply Diverse Energy Supply Population Growth Affordable Electricity Replacement plant Decentralisation Weak or No Grid Desalination (EU: 3000 billion m 3 of fresh water 2030*) Affordability Capital Modularity Scalable Proximity to customer Replacement capacity Nuclear Drivers Small Nuclear Drivers *European Environment Agency:

15 Utilities Investors Governments Industry Consumers Energy Intensive Industry Desalination District Heating On-Site Generation Independent Power Producers Power Users Niche Markets

16 Demand (high per capita demand) Population growth rate Nuclear-friendly; and non-proliferation Energy Security Failed States Index % limit of plant size on grid Purchasing Power Energy imports Competence in local supply chain R&D Resources Geographic drivers (local) Geopolitics, trade and technology transfer

17 Economics: capital cost and financing Climate change Over-capacity from GW reactors Potential risk reduction: factor replication It has started Innovative space that this country has done extremely well in Workforce of 70,000 people, brightest minds Once in a generation opportunity to be involved in new build

18 Volume, in principle...

19 There are over 430 commercial nuclear power reactors operable today, delivering over 370GWe IEA/NEA Nuclear Technology Roadmap projects over 900GWe by 2050 If 30% of the global nuclear market is made up of SMRs that could equate to 2000 at 500MW or 20,000 at 50MW Plus, some markets can t support/don t need large nuclear so SMR numbers may be higher

20 Barrier, risks, dependencies

21 Number/scalability of modules Number of Staff Construction, Ops (remote monitoring?), Fuel Costs, Decom Regulatory process (intrinsic safety?) Sites Grid infrastructure Public acceptability Volatility of gas Cost of carbon Indigenous competition Policy changes First to market

22 Price (/Mwh)

23 Nuclear will continue to play a consistent role SMRs will be economically competitive They will work! Regulatory barriers will be overcome SMRs will be complimentary to large-scale Cater to regions where large plants are not suitable

24 A potential significant global market Niche markets may be harder to quantify Large markets anticipated in Russia, China, US; plus Europe and Middle East Being a vendor in one key market limits another Learner findings are possible Multiple GW in numerous countries Value in the order of hundreds of billion

25 What do the utilities think? Would you buy an SMR? What would make someone take the risk first?