Presented by Crispin Emmanuel D. Diaz Associate Professor School of Urban and Regional Planning University of the Philippines

Transcription

1 Presented by Crispin Emmanuel D. Diaz Associate Professor School of Urban and Regional Planning University of the Philippines

2 Conceptual Framework Establishment/ expansion/ extension of LRT/MRT Lines Increase in transport network capacity Increase in accessibility / coverage Densification of urban development along LRT/ MRT lines Increase in viability of Mass Transit Increase in population density Which comes first?

3 Urban Form and Governance Metro Manila includes 17 independently governed municipalities / cities Major roads and the rail systems are developed and maintained by the National Government. Land-use is governed by local government (cities)

4 High-density in central areas where roads have relatively high capacity Correspond to the areas LRT/MRT have been established Source: Orthogonal projection from Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS), 2004 Transport and Land Use Density

5 LRT and MRT System LRT (2 lines) MRT (1 line) Source: DOTC, 2010

6 Metro Manila Urban Rail Network Masterplan Development based on the amount of passenger traffic that can be captured in particular corridors Source: DOTC, 2010

7 Performance Indicators INDICATORS 2007 Actual 2009 Actual Percent Increase Line 1 Ridership (Millions) Load Factor (%) Farebox Ratio Revenue Collection (Millions) 1, , Line 2 Ridership (Millions) Load Factor (%) Farebox Ratio Revenue Collection (Millions) MRT Ridership (Millions) Load Factor (%) Revenue Collection (Millions) 1, , Source: DOTC, 2010

8 Private Sector Development Urban residential and commercial developments have been in the private sector Government provides framework for land-use and intensity of use But government is fractional and does not really examine the long-term effect of allowing certain developments vis-à-vis transport system development?

9 Selling Developments Access to MRT or LRT is a plus (and is indicated in promotional materials) Some promotions have used TOD explicitly as a sales pitch (e.g. Empire East developments)

10 Source: Aurora Heights, promotional PPT presentation, provided by developer Private developers of residential condominiums are highlighting the access to the railways in their sales promotional materials

11 So, what has been the impact of rail on Metro Manila? In gross terms, not much (rail has only a share of 2.3 % in 1996 guestimated at still less than 10% at present) On a corridor basis, it appears to accelerate the transformation to higher densities of development (as observed in the vicinity of many stations). The main obstacle to continued densification is really related to the willingness of land owners to open their property to such development

12 EXAMPLE 1: MRT 3 Northern section (1/2) Photo: Crispin Diaz

13 EXAMPLE 1: MRT 3 Northern section (1/2) Photo: Crispin Diaz Note: These empty / underdeveloped lots belong mostly to government Conflict with informal settlers

14 Public Private Partnerships Government lacks budget to implement big-ticket projects like LRT/MRT projects PPP has been seen as a way harness: Private sector finance Business sense of private sector PPP system is continuously being refined Limit in what riding public is willing to pay Need to keep fares low Need to have other sources of revenue capture

15 EXAMPLE 2: MRT 3 Middle section (1/2) Source: Basemap from Wikimapia.org (accessed Jan. 19, 2011

16 EXAMPLE 2: MRT 3 Middle section (2/2) Source: Basemap from Wikimapia.org (accessed Jan. 19, 2011 Notes: Aerial/satellite picture is not updated. Yellow area now being developed by 3 different companies as high-rise residential building with commercial or mixed-use on the lower floors

17 Learning from the other countries Combination of land-development with rail development (e.g. private companies in Japan developing rail in tandem with their development of residential projects) Points toward giving MRT/LRT developers managed rights to develop land in the vicinity of stations (perhaps also part of the consideration when locating stations) Revenue from MRT user fares Revenue or Value Capture from Urban development Fares based on a standard of acceptability Managed access rights Funding of MRT/LRT Project

18 Other considerations Abatement cost US$/tCO 2 e CO2 Emission Abatement Cost Curve Heat rate improvement System loss reduction Other EE interventions Oil Public transport improvement Congestion pricing BRT systems Motor vehicle inspection Cumulative abatement potential by 2030 (MtCO 2 e) Hydropower Wind Natural gas Biofuels Biomass Geothermal Solar (PV) Light vehicle technologies Four-stroke tricycles Road maintenance/improvement Source: World Bank (2010) A Strategic Approach to Climate Change in the Philippines: An Assessment of Low-Carbon Interventions in the Transport and Power Sectors

19 Final Remarks Providing urban rail is expensive, but users can t or won t pay much Government doesn t have enough money to pay for the projects and private sector requires a level of return Urban rail projects may only intensify densification of land use, but this may allow Value capture in management of station development Environmental benefits also need to be considered in the final evaluation of such projects

20 Thank you for your attention. Crispin Emmanuel D. Diaz Tel: Mobile: