REFERENCE CODE GDPE0677ICR PUBLICATION DATE JULY 2013

Transcription

1 REFERENCE CODE GDPE0677ICR PUBLICATION DATE JULY 2013 ETHIOPIA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO

2 Executive Summary Hydropower Dominates Installed Capacity in Ethiopia Hydropower is the dominant source of electricity in Ethiopia, accounting for XX% of the total installed capacity in 2012, down from XX% in This decline was the result of renewable power installations in the country. The share accounted for by thermal power in 2012 amounted to XX%, followed by renewable sources with XX%. The government has been focusing on increasing both hydropower and renewable installed capacity with a view to meeting increasing domestic demand for power, as well as increasing exports to neighboring countries, which will help to pay for the cost of construction for these power plants. Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2012 Wind (onshore) Oil (thermal) Geothermal Continued Growth in Annual Power Consumption and Generation Annual power consumption in Ethiopia increased between 2000 and 2012 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX% from XX Gigawatt hours (GWh) to an estimated XX GWh in Annual consumption in the country grew due to increased household and industrial consumption. Annual power generation also increased during this period, at a CAGR of XX%, from XX GWh in 2000 to XX GWh in Power Market, Ethiopia, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (GWh), Total generation (GWh) and consumption (GWh) Annual consumption (GWh) Annual generation (GWh) Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: June 18, 2013] Large hydro Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: June 18, 2013] 2

3 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures Introduction GlobalData Report Guidance Ethiopia, Power Market, Snapshot Ethiopia, Power Market, Macroeconomic Factors Ethiopia, Power Market, Supply Security Ethiopia, Power Market, Generation Infrastructure Ethiopia, Power Market, Transmission Infrastructure Ethiopia, Power Market, Opportunities Ethiopia, Power Market, Challenges Ethiopia, Power Market, Market Analysis Ethiopia, Power Market, Supply Structure Ethiopia, Power Market, Key Players Ethiopia, Power Market, Demand Structure Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector, Ethiopia, Power Market, Regulatory Overview Power Sector Reforms Growth and Transformation Plan Ethiopia, Power Market, Foreign Investment Scenario Policies for Foreign Investment in the Power Market Ethiopia, Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity, Breakdown by Type of Power Plant Ethiopia, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation,

4 Table of Contents Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, Cumulative Installed Hydro Capacity and Annual Hydropower Generation, Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity and Annual Renewable Power Generation, Ethiopia, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview Ethiopia, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview Ethiopia, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview New Domestic Transmission and Distribution Projects Ethiopia, Power Market, Grid Interconnection Electricity Import and Export Trends Ethiopia, Power Market, Electricity Trading Ethiopia, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Top Power Generating Company Key Company in the Ethiopia Power Market Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, Company Overview Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, Business Description Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, SWOT Overview Appendix Market Definitions Power Installed Capacity Active Installed Capacity Electricity Generation Electricity Consumption Thermal Power Plant Hydropower Plant Nuclear Power

5 Table of Contents Renewable Energy Resources Abbreviations Bibliography Coverage GlobalData s Methodology Primary Research and Analysis Secondary research and analysis Contact Us Disclaimer

6 Table of Contents 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Power Market, Ethiopia, GDP ($bn), Population (millions), and Annual Electricity Consumption (GWh), Table 2: Power Market, Ethiopia, Annual Electricity Consumption (GWh), Table 3: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector (%), Table 4: Power Market, Ethiopia, GTP, Growth Rate of Real GDP (%), Table 5: National Economy, Ethiopia, Annual Foreign Direct Investment ($m), Table 6: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), Table 7: Table 8: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed thermal Capacity (MW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), Table 9: Power Market, Ethiopia, Leading Active Hydropower Plants (MW), Table 10: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Hydro Capacity (MW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), Table 11: Power Market, Ethiopia, Leading Upcoming Wind Farms (MW), Table 12: Power Market, Ethiopia, Leading Upcoming Geothermal Power Plants (MW), Table 13: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity (MW) and Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), Table 14: Power Market, Ethiopia, Transmission Network Distance by Voltage Level (Ckm), Table 15: Power Market, Ethiopia, Distribution Network Distance (Ckm), Table 16: Power Market, Ethiopia, Planned Transmission Projects by Voltage Level (kv) and Distance (km), Table 17: Power Market, Ethiopia, Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, SWOT Analysis Table 18: Abbreviations

7 Table of Contents 1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: Power Market, Ethiopia, GDP ($bn), Population (millions), and Annual Electricity Consumption (GWh), Figure 2: Power Market, Ethiopia, Annual Electricity Consumption (GWh), Figure 3: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector (%), Figure 4: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), Figure 5: Figure 6: Figure 7: Figure 8: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed thermal Capacity (MW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Hydro Capacity (MW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity (MW) and Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh),

8 Introduction 2 Introduction Ethiopia has begun to liberalize its economy and has removed a number of restrictive or discriminatory regulations related to tax, credit, foreign trade and the private sector in general. As a result of these changes, private and foreign companies are no longer required to pay unfavorable taxes or apply for additional licenses, and they do not face discriminatory import or export policies, or inequitable tariff or non-tariff barriers. However, despite these changes, the Ethiopian government remains heavily involved in the economy. Ethiopia is a member of various international organizations, such as the East African Community (EAC), East African Power Pool (EAPP), African Development Bank Group (AfDB), African, Caribbean, and Pacific Group of States (ACP), African Union (AU), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Group of XX (G24), Group of XX (G77), International Finance Corporation (IFC), International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), International Labor Organization (ILO), International Maritime Organization (IMO), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Ethiopia s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) amounted to an estimated $XX billion in 2012, of which agriculture accounted for almost XX. In 2011, the country s GDP amounted to $XX billion, of which agriculture accounted for XX%. Coffee is the most important agricultural product exported from the country. However, Ethiopia suffers from a trade deficit, with exports amounting to at an estimated $XX billion in 2012 and imports amounting to an estimated $XX billion. In 2011, exports and imports amounted to $XX billion and $XX billion, respectively. In addition, inflation fell in June 2009 to around XX% and XX% in August 2010, but increased to XX% in December 2010, an estimated XX% in 2011, and an estimated XX% in 2012 (IMF, 2013; CIA, 2013). In addition to agricultural produce, Ethiopia also exports natural resources, such as gold, marble, limestone, and small amounts of tantalum. In the past, Ethiopia has been characterized by prolonged periods of drought and agricultural failures, which resulted in a large number of deaths from starvation in the country s population. The recent introduction of socio-economic measures by the Ethiopian government, with help from foreign donors, and also the construction of large dams in the country, has helped to strengthen agriculture in the country and reduce deaths. The country has also succeeded in attracting foreign investment in the areas of textiles, leather, commercial agriculture and manufacturing, which is creating an increased demand for power. 9

9 Introduction Ethiopia also possesses abundant hydro resources and the majority of its power generation is derived from hydropower. However, Ethiopia is totally dependent on imports for oil. As a landlocked country, Ethiopia can access maritime trade through the port of Djibouti. The country also possesses abundant wind and solar potential and has plans to utilize this potential in order to meet domestic and international demand for power, which is increasing rapidly. The Ethiopian power market is divided into the Inter-Connected System (ICS) and the Self- Contained System (SCS). The ICS is the grid-connected section of the market, which is served exclusively by the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo), a state-owned utility company. The SCS is an off-grid system and is primarily served by EEPCo, alongside other private organizations such as charitable missionary trusts and local municipalities. 10

10 Introduction 2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance The report begins with an executive summary that captures key growth trends in the Ethiopian power market. Chapter three provides a snapshot of the key parameters in the country that affect its power sector as well as key points about the Ethiopian power market. Chapter four provides a power market analysis for Ethiopia. Chapter five provides details of the regulatory scenario of the power market and inward foreign investment scenario in the country. Chapter six provides information on the country s cumulative installed capacity and annual generation trends as a whole and also split according to individual sources of generation. Chapter seven describes the power transmission and distribution infrastructure of the country and includes information on interconnectors with neighboring countries. The section also covers details on electricity import and export, and upcoming grid related projects in the country. Chapter eight describes the competitive landscape of the country s power market, with a complete description and Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis for the leading companies Note: all 2012 market numbers provided in the report are estimates except where actual data was available. 11

11 Ethiopia, Power Market, Market Analysis Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector, 2012 The industrial sector is estimated to have been the largest power consuming sector in Ethiopia in 2012 with a share of XX%. Services are estimated to have accounted for XX% of total power consumption in 2012, bringing the total share held by these two sectors to XX%. The household sector accounted for an estimated XX% share of total electricity consumption in 2012 followed by other smaller sectors with XX%. Figure 3: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2012 Others sectors Households Industry Services Source: GlobalData Table 3: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2012 Sector Percentage (%) Industry Services Households Others sectors Source: GlobalData 21

12 Capacity and Generation Overview, Ethiopia, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, Ethiopia s cumulative installed capacity increased from XX MW in 2000 to XX MW in 2012 at a CAGR of XX%. From 2013 to 2030, cumulative installed capacity is expected to increase from XX MW to XX MW at a CAGR of XX%. A major share of Ethiopia s installed capacity is accounted for by hydropower resources. Ethiopia has been focusing on the development of hydropower, with a view to meeting its own rapidly increasing domestic demand, as well as increasing exports to neighboring nations. However, the government is concerned about the excessive focus on hydropower and has therefore also been concentrating on the development of renewable sources, specifically wind and geothermal. Nevertheless, hydropower is expected to continue to be a major source of power in the country from 2013 to 2030, increasing at a CAGR of XX%. Renewable power is expected to increase at a CAGR of XX%. Annual power generation in the country amounted to XX GWh in 2000, increasing to XX GWh in 2012 at a CAGR of XX%. Annual power generation is expected to increase from XX GWh in 2013 to XX GWh in 2030 at a CAGR of XX%. 27

13 Capacity and Generation Overview, Figure 5: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), Cumulative installed capacity (MW) Annual generation (GWh) Cumulative installed capacity (MW) Annual generation (GWh) Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: June 18, 2013] 28

14 Capacity and Generation Overview, Table 7: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), Year Cumulative installed capacity (MW) Annual generation (GWh) Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: June 18, 2013] 29

15 Appendix 9 Appendix 9.1 Market Definitions Power The rate of production, transfer, or energy use, usually related to electricity. Measured in watts and often expressed in kilowatts (kw) or Megawatts (MW). This is also known as "real" or "active" power Installed Capacity Installed capacity refers to the generator s nameplate capacity, as stated by the manufacturer, or the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. Installed capacity is given in MW on a nameplate affixed to the generator Active Installed Capacity Active installed capacity refers to the component of electric power that actually performs work. It is given kw or MW Electricity Generation Electricity generation is something producing electric energy by transforming other forms of energy. This term also refers to the amount of electric energy produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh) Electricity Consumption Electricity consumption is the sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports, minus transmission and distribution losses. It is measured in GWh Thermal Power Plant This is a plant where the turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels Hydropower Plant This is a plant where the turbine generators are driven by falling water. 52

16 Appendix Nuclear Power This is the electricity generated by the use of thermal energy, released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor Renewable Energy Resources These are naturally replenishing energy resources that are limited in the amount of energy that is available per unit of time. For example, biomass, geothermal, solar and wind energy are all renewable resources. 9.2 Abbreviations Table 18: Abbreviations ACP African, Caribbean, and Pacific Group of States AfDB African Development Bank Group ARGeo African Rift Geothermal Development Program AU African Union CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate Ckm Circuit kilometer COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa DA Double Curvature EAC East African Community EAPP East African Power Pool EEA Ethiopian Energy Agency EEPCo Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation ER Rock Fill ETSIP Electricity Transmission System Improvement Project FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FDI Foreign Direct Investment G24 Group of 24 G77 Group of 77 GDP Gross Domestic Product GTP Growth and Transformation Plan GWh Gigawatt Hour ICS Inter-Connected System ICSID International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFC International Finance Corporation 53

17 Appendix ILO IMF IMO JV kv kw kwh MDG MIGA MW NBI PASDEP PV PV RCC RMF SCS SDPRP T&D TE UEAP V WIPO Source: GlobalData International Labour Organization International Monetary Fund International Maritime Organization Joint Venture Kilo Volt Kilowatt Kilowatt Hour Millenium Development Goal Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Megawatt Nile Basin Initiative Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty Photovoltaic Photovoltaic Roller Compact Concrete Risk Mitigation Fund Self-Contained System Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program Transmission and Distribution Earth Fill Universal Electricity Access Program Volt World Intellectual Property Organization 54

18 Appendix 9.3 Bibliography CIA (2013). Ethiopia: The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Available from: [Accessed on: June 17, 2013] EEPCo (2013). ELECTRICITY TSIP. Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation. Available from: [Accessed on: June 18, 2013] IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013 [database]. Available at: [Accessed on: June 17, 2013] MoFED (2012). Growth and Transformation Plan (2010/ /15), Annual Progress Report for F.Y. 2010/11. Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, June Available from: ort%20% %29.pdf Precise Consult International, LLC (2013). EEPCo Starts Power Export to Sudan. Precise Consult International, LLC. Available from: [Accessed on: June 19, 2013] UNCTAD, Inward and outward foreign direct investment flows, annual, [database]. Available from: [Accessed on: June 17, 2013]. 55

19 Appendix 9.4 Coverage This report gives detailed information on the country s power market. It examines the country s power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for generation, capacity and consumption up to The report provides insights on the market s regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and upcoming power projects. 9.5 GlobalData s Methodology GlobalData s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with backgrounds in marketing, market research and consulting in the power industry, and advanced statistical expertise. GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society ( and the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals ( The following research methodology is followed for all country outlook reports. 9.6 Primary Research and Analysis Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants to verify and fine-tune the market numbers obtained through secondary research and get first-hand information on industry trends. The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and academia. The participants include, but are not limited to, C-level executives, industry consultants, academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant managers, government officials, and industry spokespeople. 56

20 Appendix 9.7 Secondary research and analysis The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of secondary resources including but not limited to: Government agencies, ministerial websites, industry associations, the World Bank, statistical databases Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports and investor presentations Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature GlobalData s proprietary databases like the Capacity and Generation Database, Power Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database. Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project the country s power market scenario through to 2030, analyzing factors such as the following: The country s macroeconomic scenario Government regulations, policies and targets Government and private sector investments Contract and deal announcements Utility expansion plans The sector s historic track record Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites, annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry associations. 57

21 Appendix 9.8 Contact Us If you have any queries about this report or would like further information, please contact us. North America: Europe: Asia-Pacific: info@globaldata.com 9.9 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData. 58