10 Project Cost Estimation

Transcription

1 10 Project Cost Estimation

2 Contents 10 Project Cost Estimation Project Overview Principles of Project Cost Estimation Data Basis and Assumptions for Project Cost Estimation Price Level Labor Price Price of Main Materials Price of Electricity, Water, Compressed Air and Aggregates Construction and Installation Relating Taxes Project Cost Estimation for Project Main Construction Works P&G works Civil Works Cost Estimation for Metal Structure and Installation Cost Estimation for E&M Equipment and Installation Cost Estimation for Transmission Line Construction & Substation Upgrading Project Cost Estimation for Monitoring and Management Works Environmental and Fish Protection, Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring on Hydrology, Water Regime and Sedimen Management and Monitoring on Dam Safety Cost Estimation for Land Acquisition and Resettlement Cost Estimation for Company s Scope of Work Basic Contingency Cost Estimation for Exchange Rate Risk Price Contingency Financing Cost Total Project Investment... 7

3 10 Project Cost Estimation 10.1 Project Overview The dam site of Paklay Hydropower Project (HPP) is located at 1829km (to the estuary) on the main stream of the Mekong River, about 31km upstream from Paklay County and about 241km from Vientiane, the capital city of Laos. The catchment area of the dam site is about 278,400 km 2. The normal pool level (NPL) of Paklay HPP is m, and the corresponding capacity of reservoir 890 million m 3, minimum pool level m and regulation storage 58.4 million m 3. When regulated by the Xiaowan and Nuozhadu reservoirs on the upper reaches, the mean annual inflow to the reservoir is 4100m 3 /s and runoff volume is billion m 3. The design installed capacity of the project is 770 MW (14 55MW), mean annual energy output is GWh, and annual utilization hours is 5357h. Conventional concrete gravity dam and water retaining type powerhouse are adopted as water retaining structure for the project with maximum dam height of 51.2m. The design standard of flood control for normal application is based on 2000-year return period and that for special application is based on year return period. The peak discharge of 2000-year return period of flood (P=0.05%) is 34700m 3 /s while that of year return period of flood (P=0.01%) is 38800m 3 /s. In the recommended scheme, the shiplock is arranged on the reef flat on the right bank, powerhouse on the left bank and overflow dam in the middle. The overflow dam is provided with 11 open-type high-level surface bays, 3 open-type low-level surface bays, and 2 sediment flushing bottom outlets. The dimension is m m (width height) for each high-level surface bay, m m (width height) for each low-level surface bay, and m m (width height) for each sediment flushing bottom outlet. Single-stage ship lock is adopted and the effective dimensions of the lock chamber are m 12.00m 4.00m. Two-stage diversion is adopted for construction diversion. The construction period will be 5 years to the first unit generation date and the total construction period will be 6 years and 9 months (excluding preparatory 10-1

4 period). The number of construction personnel in peak construction period will be about 2, Principles of Project Cost Estimation a) Document Nengyuan [2008] No issued by the National Development and Reform Commission of the People s Republic of China, the Regulations on Budgetary Estimate for Design of Hydropower Projects (2007 edition) and the Code for Budgetary Estimate for Design of Hydropower Projects (2007 edition) issued by China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute and Renewable Energy Quota Station. b) Quotas for Budgetary Estimate for Building Works of Hydropower Projects (2007 edition) issued by China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute and Renewable Energy Quota Station, Quotas for Machine-Hour Fees of Construction Machinery for Hydropower Projects (2004 edition) issued in Document Shui DianGui ZaoJia (2004) No and Quotas for Budgetary Estimate for Equipment Installation Works of Hydropower Projects (2003 edition) issued in Announcement (2003) No. 38 by the State Economic and Trade Commission of China. c) Law on Electricity of Lao People s Democratic Republic, Law on Foreign Investment Promotion of Lao People s Democratic Republic, Tax Law of Lao People s Democratic Republic, and Labor Law of Lao People s Democratic Republic. d) Design documents and lists of equipment and materials in the feasibility study stage. e) Supply and market prices of materials and equipment in Laos and China in the first half of f) Referring to project cost of other hydropower projects in Laos and Southeast Asia. 10-2

5 10.3 Data Basis and Assumptions for Project Cost Estimation Price Level The first half of Labor Price The labor cost in Lao PDR and in neighboring countries have been taken into consideration in labor price estimation Price of Main Materials This project considers procuring the main materials from domestic market of Lao PDR as well as the neighboring countries. The market prices have been adopted, including the transportation fee. As for other materials, practice in other hydropower projects in Laos and China has been taken into consideration for the price estimation Price of Electricity, Water, Compressed Air and Aggregates The unit prices of electricity, water, compressed air and aggregates are calculated according to the construction arrangements, manual of construction equipment, local market price and the project s characteristics Construction and Installation Relating Taxes Taxes are calculated as follow in compliance with relevant Laws and Regulations of Lao PDR, considering the latest tax incentive policies and development experience of other Hydropower projects. Table 10-1 Taxes Assumptions Taxes Corporate Income Tax for Contractor and Sub-contractors Personal Income Tax for all staff working on the project (incl. emplyees, staff and labours hired by Project company, Contractor and Sub-contractors, etc.) during construction period Value-Added Tax Materials and equipment imported within Project construction period Not Considered Not Considered Rates Construction vehicle (temporarily imported) VAT Exempted Administrative vehicle - VAT payable (10%) Oil products - VAT payable (10%) Other materials and equipment required by the project VAT Exempted 10-3

6 Taxes Value-Added Tax Services imported within Project construction period Value-Added Tax Materials and equipment procured from Lao s domestic markets within project construction period Value-Added Tax services procured from Lao s domestic markets within project construction period Customs Duty -Materials and equipment imported within Project construction period Table 10-1 Taxes Assumptions VAT Exempted Not Considered Not Considered 8 Environmental Tax Exempted Rates Construction vehicle (temporarily imported) - Exempted from Customs Duty Administrative vehicle - Customs Duty payable Oil products - Customs Duty payable Other materials and equipment required by the project - Exempted 10.4 Project Cost Estimation for Project Main Construction Works P&G works The cost of P&G works covers the cost of Road for External Site Access, Internal Construction Road within Site, Power Supply for Construction, Water Supply for Construction, Air Supply for Construction, Communication System for Construction, Information System for Construction Management, Quarry Protection System, Aggregates Production System, Concrete Mixing and Placing System, Buildings for Production, Construction and Management, Compensation for Navigation Suspension due to Construction, and Other P & G Works Civil Works The cost of civil works covers the cost of First-stage Upstream Horizontal Cofferdam, First-stage Downstream Horizontal Cofferdam, First-stage Longitudinal Cofferdam, Drainage of First-stage Cofferdam Foundation Pit, Second-stage Upstream Horizontal Cofferdam, Second-stage Downstream Horizontal Cofferdam, Second-stage Longitudinal Cofferdam, Drainage of Second-stage Cofferdam 10-4

7 Foundation Pit, Dam Construction, Powerhouse, Navigation Project, Fishway Project, Permanent Buildings and Other Civil Work Cost Estimation for Metal Structure and Installation The cost of procurement and installation expenses of Flood Discharge Works, Generation Engineering, Navigation and Ship-passing Structures and Fishway System, etc Cost Estimation for E&M Equipment and Installation The cost of procurement and installation expenses of hydroturbine, generator, Lifting Equipment, Hydro-mechanical Auxiliary, Electrical Equipment, plant bridge machine, Relay protection equipment, computer monitoring equipment, transformer substation (including main transformer and high-voltage electrical equipment), fire-fighting equipment, Mechanic Repairing and Maintenance Equipment, Water Supply and Drainage Equipment, Ventilation and air-conditioning equipment, communication equipment, Labor Safety and Industrial Health Equipment, Safety Monitoring Equipment, transportation equipment, etc Cost Estimation for Transmission Line Construction & Substation Upgrading Since Thailand is the key target market of Pak Lay Hydroelectric Power Project, the cost estimation is done for transmission network from the power plant to the Lao-Thai border, by assuming a transmission line voltage of 500kV and taking into account the unit price of similar transmission network project. Such cost estimation includes costs for both transmission line construction and that for substation upgrading works, subject to future adjustment after the final design of transmission network is acknowledged by the GOL and EGAT Project Cost Estimation for Monitoring and Management Works Environmental and Fish Protection, Soil and Water Conservation The cost of environmental protection, fish protection and soil and water conservation works, including the measure expense of the construction environment protection, was estimated based on the relevant special reports. 10-5

8 Monitoring on Hydrology, Water Regime and Sedimen The cost for monitoring system on hydrology, water regime and sediment was estimated according to the relevant special report Management and Monitoring on Dam Safety The cost for management and monitoring on dam safety covers the identification and analysis cost of hazardous factors of construction layout, main buildings, equipment, natural disaster, hazard during production and construction, etc. and the counter measure of the above Cost Estimation for Land Acquisition and Resettlement The land acquisition and resettlement cost was calculated based on the relevant special reports, the regulation of Lao PDR and the practice of other hydropower projects in Lao PDR Cost Estimation for Company s Scope of Work Costs for Company s scope of work consists of Development Cost, Project Company Management Expenses, Construction Supervision, Exploration, Surveying and Test for Pre-FS stage, Exploration and Design Fee for FS stage, ESIA Consulting Fee, Technical, Legal, Insurance Consulting Fee, Project Construction Insurance, Testing & Commissioning, Construction Safety Management, Working Capital and GOL Charges and Fundings Basic Contingency The basic contingency was calculated in consideration of the unpredictable risk of geology, construction, etc Cost Estimation for Exchange Rate Risk Cost for exchange rate risk is to offset the cost escalation due to exchange rate fluctuation during the construction period Price Contingency The price contingency is the budget for the cost escalation of materials, labor, equipment, and machinery, etc during construction period. 10-6

9 10.12 Financing Cost The financing cost of the project consists of four parts, including loan interest during construction, upfront fee, bank commitment fee and overseas investment insurance fee Total Project Investment The project cost is equivalent to the sum of costs for Project Main Construction Work, Project Monitering and Management Works, Land Acquisition and Resettlement cost, cost for Company s scope of work, Basic Contingency, Cost Estimation for Exchange Rate Risk and price contingency. Total project investment consists of total project cost and financing cost. 10-7

10 10.14 Estimation on Project Cost and Investment Sees Table Table 10-2 Estimation of Total Project Cost and Investment for Paklay HPP (14x55MW=770MW) No. Item USD I Project Main Construction Works 1,082,487,564 1 P&G Works 101,954,686 2 Civil Works 571,340,944 3 Metal Structure Manufacture & Installation 100,119,272 4 E&M Equipment and Installation 309,072,662 II Transmission Line Construction & Substation Upgrading Works 90,000,000 III Project Monitering and Management Works 25,000,000 1 Environmental and Fish Protection, Soil and Water Conservation 10,000,000 2 Monitoring on Hydrology, Water Regime and 10,000,000 Sediment 3 Management and Monitoring on Dam Safety 5,000,000 IV Land Acquisition & Resettlement 75,000,000 V Company's Scope of Work 221,989,851 1 Development Cost 30,000,000 2 Project Company Management Expenses 35,000,000 3 Construction Supervision 22,000,000 4 Exploration, Surveying and Test for Pre-FS stage 15,000,000 5 Exploration and Design Fee for FS stage 65,000,000 6 ESIA Consulting Fee 4,000,000 7 Technical, Legal, Insurance Consulting Fee 3,000,000 8 Project Construction Insurance 12,989,851 9 Testing & Commissioning 3,000, Construction Safety Management 15,000, Working Capital 3,000,000 GOL Charges and Fundings (incl. land lease 14,000, fee, EMU/RC/RMU, budget for natural resources, and government consulting fees for legal advisory service and engineering service) Sum(I+II+III+IV) 1,494,477,415 VI Basic Contingency 55,000,000 Ⅶ Cost Estimation for Exchange Rate Risk 7,000,000 Ⅷ Price Contingency 25,000,000 Total Project Cost(excl. financing cost) 1,581,477,415 Ⅸ Financing Cost 552,767,005 1 Interests During Construction Period 393,773,431 2 Upfront fee 11,951,769 3 Bank Commitment Fee 54,081,

11 No. Item USD 4 Overseas Investment Insurance 92,960,052 The Total Investment Cost 2,134,244,

12 Table 10-3 Cost Breakdown for Project Main Construction Work Sr Item Total Amount (USD) 1 P&G works 101,954, Road for External Site Access 26,125, Internal Construction Road within Site 7,595, Power Supply for Construction 2,997, Water Supply for Construction 6,517, Air Supply for Construction 709, Communication System for Construction 1,344, Information System for Construction Management 753, Quarry Protection System 398, Aggregates Production System 7,205, Concrete Mixing and Placing System 8,978, Buildings for Production, Construction and Management 27,215, Compensation for Navigation Suspension due to Construction 2,812, Other P & G Works 9,301,232 2 Civil Work 571,340, First-stage Upstream Horizontal Cofferdam 4,006, First-stage Downstream Horizontal Cofferdam 3,792, First-stage Longitudinal Cofferdam 16,207, Drainage of First-stage Cofferdam Foundation Pit 406, Second-stage Upstream Horizontal Cofferdam 16,967, Second-stage Downstream Horizontal Cofferdam 9,309, Second-stage Longitudinal Cofferdam 5,684, Drainage of Second-stage Cofferdam Foundation Pit 318, Dam Construction 181,467, Powerhouse 221,685, Navigation Project 74,600, Fishway Project 8,481, Permanent Buildings 11,285, Other Civil Work 17,127,317 3 Metal Structural Manufacturing and Installation 100,119, Flood Discharge Works 51,421, Generation Engineering 42,851, Navigation and Ship-passing Structures 5,734, Fishway System 110,603 4 E&M Equipment and Installation 309,072, Turbine Equipment and Installation 133,258, Generator Equipment and Installation 89,090, Lifting Equipment and Installation 2,744, Hydro-mechanical Auxiliary Equipment and Installation 2,156, Electrical Equipment and Installation 19,298, Communication Equipment and Installation 774,

13 Sr Item Total Amount (USD) 4.7 Ventilation and Air-conditioning Equipment and Installation 889, Mechanic Repairing and Maintenance Equipment and Installation 200, Main Transformer and Installation 13,723, High-voltage Electrical Equipment and Installation 31,837, Firefighting Equipment and Installation 909, Water Supply and Drainage Equipment and Installation 280, Labor Safety and Industrial Health Equipment and Installation 181, Safety Monitoring Equipment and Installation 2,575, Transportation Equipment 909, Grounding of Whole Plant 909, Others 9,333,333 Project Main Construction Work -Sum ( ) 1,082,487,