TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 RENEWABLES 2017

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1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary Recent renewable energy deployment trends Highlights Electricity Technology deployment summary Regional deployment summary Transport Ethanol markets Biodiesel markets Electric vehicles Heat References Renewable electricity forecast Highlights Technology forecast summary Regional forecast summary China Main case forecast Accelerated case forecast Asia and Pacific India: main case forecast Japan: main case forecast Other countries in Asia and Pacific: main case forecast Asia and Pacific: accelerated case forecast North America United States: Main case forecast Canada: Main case forecast Mexico: Main case forecast North America: Accelerated case forecast Europe Germany: Main case forecast France: Main case forecast United Kingdom: Main case forecast Turkey: Main case forecast Other countries in Europe: Main case forecast Europe: Accelerated case forecast Latin America Brazil: Main case forecast RENEWABLES 2017

2 Argentina: Main case forecast Chile: Main case forecast Latin America: Accelerated case forecast SSA South Africa: Main case forecast Ethiopia: Main case forecast Kenya: Main case forecast Nigeria: Main case forecast Other countries in SSA: Main case forecast SSA: Accelerated case forecast MENA Morocco: Main case forecast United Arab Emirates: Main case forecast Jordan: Main case forecast Other countries in MENA: Main case forecast MENA: Accelerated case forecast References Renewable transport Highlights Overview of renewable energy consumption in road transport Conventional biofuel markets Global overview Could new import tariffs in key markets constrain biofuel trade prospects? Ethanol markets regional outlook Biodiesel markets regional outlook Conventional biofuels accelerated case Advanced biofuel markets Advanced biofuels main case forecast Advanced biofuels accelerated case forecast Status update on advanced biofuel projects Cellulosic ethanol Plants using other technologies Project pipeline Integrating advanced biofuel technologies into conventional biofuel facilities Advanced biofuel policy developments Renewable energy consumption by EVs Global overview Electric cars Electric car country targets scenario Assessing transport decarbonisation from EVs and biofuels References RENEWABLES

3 4. Renewable heat Highlights Global overview and outlook Outlook for renewable heat technologies Bioenergy for heat Solar thermal Heat pumps Geothermal Policy developments in key heat markets References Renewable energy technology trends and costs Highlights Electricity Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Hydropower Bioenergy CSP Geothermal Transport biofuels Prospects for advanced biofuel competitiveness versus fossil transport fuels Renewable heat References Data tables Glossary Regional and country groupings List of acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1. Global total electricity capacity, Figure 1.2. Net renewable capacity additions by technology, Figure 1.3. Renewable capacity additions in 2016 and MTRMR 2016 forecasts Figure 1.4. Global electricity generation by technology, Figure 1.5. Renewable capacity additions in 2015 and 2016 by country/region and technology.. 22 Figure 1.6. Ethanol (left) and biodiesel (right) production in selected markets, 2015 and Figure 1.7. Global renewable electricity consumption by EVs (left) and electric cars (right) in Figure 1.8. Total global energy consumption for heat (left) in 2015 and modern renewable heat consumption by source (right) 2009 and RENEWABLES 2017

4 Figure 2.1. Global net renewable capacity growth by technology, historical and forecast Figure 2.2. Global renewable electricity generation by technology (left) versus coal and gas generation (right) Figure 2.3. Global growth in net generation of renewable and fossil fuel electricity Figure 2.4. Variable renewable electricity generation in selected countries, 2016 and Figure 2.5. Net additions to renewable power capacity by selected countries and regions Figure 2.6. Net additions to renewable power capacity under accelerated and main cases by region (left) and technology (right) Figure 2.7. Off-grid PV capacity additions and additional initial access per year from SHSs... in Asia (left) and SSA (right), Figure 2.8. Breakdown of SHS prices for units purchased with PAYG vs. cash, split by size and provider Figure 2.9. China renewable electricity consumption in 2016, targets for 2020 and percentage wind curtailment in Figure China renewable capacity annual additions (left) and generation (right), Figure Asia and Pacific renewable electricity capacity growth, (left) and generation by source, 2016 and 2022 (right) Figure Current state-level status of India s UDAY scheme Figure India solar PV and onshore wind annual net capacity additions (left), announced... solar and wind auction prices versus average coal tariffs (right) Figure Japan annual net renewable capacity additions, (left) and estimated cancellation and possible installation of solar PV project pipeline (right) Figure ASEAN cumulative renewable capacity, 2016 and Figure North America renewable electricity capacity growth, (left) and... generation by source, (right) Figure United States RPS-driven generation (left) and announced corporate PPAs (right) Figure United States annual net wind and solar PV capacity additions, Figure Canada annual net renewable capacity additions, Figure Mexico CEL auction results and annual net renewable capacity additions, Figure Price differences in Mexican auctions for selected zones (left), example of month-... and region-specific hourly adjustment factors, area of Laguna in 2026 (right) Figure Europe renewable electricity capacity growth, (left) and generation by source, 2016 and 2022 (right) Figure Germany onshore wind capacity (left) and PV annual additions by segment (right) Figure France annual net renewable capacity additions, (left) and average... solar PV winning bids, (right) Figure UK annual net renewable capacity additions, (left) and 2017 CFD auction results (right) Figure Turkey annual net renewable capacity additions, Figure Latin America renewable electricity capacity growth, (left) and generation... by source, 2016 and 2022 (right) Figure Brazil renewable electricity auction results, (left) and annual net renewable capacity additions, (right) Figure Argentina RenovAR 1 and 1.5 auction results Figure SSA renewable electricity generation by source, 2016 and RENEWABLES

5 Figure South Africa annual net renewable capacity additions (left), and solar PV annual net additions by segment (right) Figure MENA renewable electricity capacity growth, (left) and generation by... source, 2016 and 2022 (right) Figure Morocco total renewable capacity, 2016 and 2022, and generation, Figure United Arab Emirates cumulative renewable capacity (left) and natural gas supply... vs power demand (right) Figure Jordan annual net renewable capacity additions (left) and solar PV additions by segment (right) Figure 3.1. Overall renewable energy consumption in road transport 2016 (left) and 2022 (right) Figure 3.2. Global conventional biofuel production (left) and forecast output growth in Figure 3.3. key regions (right) Global biodiesel and HVO production (left) and feedstock use for HVO production by Neste (right) Figure 3.4. Indexed gasoline and diesel demand trends for selected countries, Figure 3.5. Global biofuel exports, Figure 3.6. Annual fuel ethanol production in major (left) and other key markets (right), Figure 3.7. Global biodiesel production, Figure 3.8. Advanced and conventional biofuel proposals in the Energy Winter Package Figure 3.9. Forecast annual advanced biofuels production (left) and capacity additions (right). 107 Figure Figure Figure Electricity consumption in EVs globally (left) and in electric cars by major market in 2022 (right) Carbon intensity of electricity generation in selected EV markets (left) and GHG emissions reduction from selected biofuels under Germany s CPQ (right) On-road WTW CO 2 emissions from electric cars for selected countries and regions in 2015 (left) and reference WTW CO 2 emissions from selected biofuels (right) FIgure 4.1. Heat in total final consumption, FIgure 4.2. Global final renewable heat consumption (left) and split between sectors (right), 2015 and FIgure 4.3. FIgure 4.4. Renewable heat consumption (left) and share of renewables in heat consumption (right), selected countries/regions, Final energy consumption of bioenergy by industry sector in 2015 (left) and global wood pellet production and demand by end use (right) FIgure 4.5. Solid biomass consumption for heating in China, , and 2020 target FIgure 4.6. Solar thermal cumulative capacity by region and global gross additions, FIgure 4.7. Net solar thermal consumption growth by sector (left) and by region (right), FIgure 4.8. HP sales in Europe by technology, (left) and share of heat pumps per households (right) FIgure 4.9. Geothermal direct use by country, Figure 5.1. Figure 5.2. Fixed remuneration contract type for utility-scale renewable capacity commissioned in 2016 and (left) and by technology (right) Onshore wind and solar PV auction capacity and average price by project commissioning date RENEWABLES 2017

6 Figure 5.3. Figure 5.4. Figure 5.5. Figure 5.6. Figure 5.7. Figure 5.8. Figure 5.9. Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Global average LCOEs and auction results for projects by commissioning date PV module prices (left), manufacturing capacity and net annual additions (right), Average solar PV system prices for commissioned projects, Historical and forecast LCOE range for typical utility-scale solar PV plants versus recent auction results Historical and forecast LCOEs for commercial and residential solar PV applications, LCOE of residential PV vs. average residential electricity price in selected states countries, Onshore wind annual demand and nacelle manufacturing capacity Onshore wind investment costs in selected countries, Onshore wind capacity by age, 2017 and 2022 (left), and maintenance cost ranges and annual maintenance market in 2022 by turbine age (right) Onshore wind LCOEs for typical systems and recent auctions results, Offshore wind investment costs for fully commissioned projects, Offshore wind turbine size, foundation per MW (left) and LCOE range (right) Offshore wind auction results and LCOEs by expected commissioning date Hydropower investment costs, Global PSP capacity (left) and generation forecast (right) Global investment cost and LCOE ranges for bioenergy technologies Announced investment costs and base PPA price of historical and forecast CSP projects (left) and corresponding estimated capacity factors (right) Geothermal capacity segmentation by technology (left) and forecast (right) Indexed costs of onshore oil and gas rigs (left) and well cost structure (right) Levelised production costs and feedstock share of production cost for selected conventional biofuels in the United States and Europe Brazilian hydrous ethanol consumption and price relative to gasoline (left) and fuel ethanol production versus international sugar price (right), Impact of carbon taxation on advanced biofuel break-even crude oil price Indicative cost ranges for residential renewable heat and fossil fuel alternatives (delivered heat) Biomass boiler investment costs by capacity LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1. Top five countries/regions for renewable capacity additions by technology in Table 2.1. Top five countries for renewable capacity growth by technology, Table 2.2. China renewable energy targets and achievements under 12th FYP, 13th FYP targets and Renewables 2017 main case forecast for Table 2.3. China main drivers for and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 2.4. China renewable electricity capacity projection (GW), main and accelerated case Table 2.5. Asia and Pacific drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 2.6. Asia and Pacific main and accelerated cases summary, 2016 and RENEWABLES

7 Table 2.7. North America drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 2.8. North America main and accelerated cases summary, 2016 and Table 2.9. Europe drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table Europe main and accelerated cases cumulative capacity, 2016 and Table Latin America drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table Latin America main and accelerate cases summary, 2016 and Table SSA main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table SSA main and accelerated case summary, 2016 and Table MENA drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table MENA main and accelerated cases summary, 2016 and Table 3.1. Global conventional biofuel production Table 3.2. Mandates, targets and support policies for biofuels in selected countries Table 3.3. Annual fuel ethanol production: accelerated case (billion L) Table 3.4. Annual biodiesel and HVO production: accelerated case (billion L) Table 4.1. Global trends and forecast for renewable heat, Table 4.2. Bioenergy drivers and challenges: industrial and district heating applications Table 4.3. Solar thermal heating drivers and challenges Table 4.4. HP drivers and challenges Table 4.5. Geothermal heating drivers and challenges Table bioenergy auction results Table 5.2. Cellulosic ethanol and W&R HVO feedstock cost estimates Table 5.3. End-user heating fuel price comparison Table 6.1. Ethanol production (billion litres) Table 6.2. Biodiesel production (billion litres) Table 6.3. Total renewable electricity capacity (GW) Table 6.4. Total renewable electricity generation (TWh) LIST OF BOXES Box 1.1. Implications of Brexit on the UK renewable energy market Box 2.1. Off-grid solar PV: an initial step to electrification in developing Asia and SSA Box 2.2. Mexican energy auction design and grid integration Box 3.1. Key biofuels proposals within the European Commission s 2016 Energy Winter Package Box 3.2. Two new global initiatives could support accelerated biofuel market growth Box 3.3. A portfolio of biofuels offers diesel alternatives in road freight transport Box 3.4. Estimation of EV renewable electricity consumption: methodology explanation Box 4.1. Modern renewable heat technologies Box 4.2. Scaling up solid biomass heating in China Box 4.3. Geothermal district heating in Hungary Box 5.1 China solid biomass and natural gas economic assessment RENEWABLES 2017