Energy visions under TYNDP 2017 and impacts on network development

Transcription

1 Brussels 27 May 2016 Energy visions under TYNDP 2017 and impacts on network development Cross-sectoral Regional Groups seminar 27 May 2016 Céline Heidrecheid System Development Business Area Manager

2 TYNDP 2017 contribution to 3rd PCI process Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr ACER Opinion TYNDP 2015 Scenario and assumption building Stakeholder engagement Data collection and check Demand Assessment and editing Projects Demand and project data publication Release Submission to ACER Public consultation Strong stakeholder involvement through 5 full-day working sessions 2

3 TYNDP sets the basis for PCI selection TYNDP assesses the gas system over the 20 coming years Supply potentials Demand 3 scenarios Network Multi-criteria assessment Security of Supply Market Integration Competition Sustainability The multi-criteria assessment supports the PCI selection 3

4 Scenarios Which future for the EU energy demand? 4

5 Over the part years Gas demand decreased, due to > Economic conditions > Climatic conditions > Energy efficiency improvements > Development of renewables > Increase of coal generation Hard coal Gas Lignite > Gas: 50% CO2 emissions compared to coal > Coal preference is counter-productive Fossil fuels generation evolution Source ENTSO-E Will recent developments change the trend? Demand increase in 2015, lower gas price improving clean spark spread 5

6 EU energy & gas demand is uncertain EU energy sector influenced by numerous factors requiring a scenario approach General factors Residential, Commercial and Industrial sector Power sector Transportation sector On track with EU targets? Economic conditions Energy efficiency Gas vs elec for heating Gas vs coal RES development Elec grid development Elec and gas in transports TYNDP 2015: 2 scenarios TYNDP 2017: 3 scenarios 6

7 Economic growth 3 constrasting scenarios for TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution Blue Transition On track EU 2050 targets High green ambitioon High economic growth High CO2 price Slow Progression Not on track EU 2050 targets Low green ambition Low economic growth Low CO2 price Low energy efficiency impr. Low heating electrification Mostly on track EU 2050 targets Moderate green ambition Moderate economic growth Moderate CO2 price Moderate energy efficiency impr. Moderate heating electrification Moderate RES development Gas before coal (on regulatory basis) High energy efficiency impr. High heating electrification High RES development Gas before coal (on regulatory basis) => Decreasing EU gas demand Low RES development Coal before gas => Increasing EU gas demand => Mainly stable EU gas demand Green ambition Blue transition makes the best out of today s assets 7

8 High consistency with ENTSO-E TYNDP 17 strongly builds on e-tyndp 16 for the power sector Alignment between ENTSOG Scenarios and ENTSO-E Visions > Generation & capacities used as input together with gas expertise & gas vs coal sensitivity TYNDP 2017 Slow Progression Blue Transition Green Revolution ENTSO-E 2030 Visions Vision 1 Vision 3 Vision 4 For TYNDPs 2018, ENTSOs are further strenghtening their cooperation on scenarios 8

9 TYNDP 2017 Scenarios 3 contrasting scenarios based on fully-fledged story lines > EU targets Slow Progression Blue Transition Green Revolution Energy efficiency Lowest Moderate Highest Generation from RES Aligned with ENTSO-E (43% for Vision ) In between CO2 emissions Mostly stable Decrease Decrease EU targets Not on track Mostly on track On track Aligned with ENTSO-E (~60% for Vision ) > To learn more on TYNDP 2017 scenarios: NDP17_Scenarios_storylines.pdf Next step: stakeholder information on demand data in July 9

10 Infrastructure fit for EU energy needs? 10

11 Gas infrastructure is supply-related Supply needs and related infrastructures will keep on being a key issue In addition to current sources: Supply needs New EU production (Black Sea, Cyprus) Biomethane LNG, Azeri gas 11

12 Infrastructure supports supply diversification Infrastructures have a key role to play in supply diversification > Europe is still faced with regional situations hindering competition Minimum share of Russian gas in countries yearly mix TYNDP 2015 Low infrastructure level 12

13 Infrastructure supports security of supply Security of supply requires that the grid is fit for peak situations 1-day design case W11/12 daily peak even under disruption situations > Gas demand is temperature-sensitive peak not directly correlated to volume > Gas is the cleanest partner to renewables 50% CO2 emissions compared to coal Flexible&highly efficient electricity production Peak situation under Ukrainian transit disruption TYNDP 2015 Low infrastructure level 13

14 TYNDP approach to projects TYNDP has a cautious approach to needs > TYNDP identifies where only infrastructures can solve the issue ( hardware solutions) To do so it assumes perfect market functioning Because infrastructures should not substitute software measures, such as full implementation of EU Regulations, reconsideration of specific transmision tariffs > TYNDP assumes cooperation between EU countries wherever relevant TYNDP lists projects at EU level: only part of them will materialise > TYNDP 2015 showed 1 st PCI list projects already solved most of the needs approx. 100 projects out of 260 > TYNDP 2017 will provide an additional insight Assessment of advanced projects, in addition to assessing FID projects and 2 nd PCI list Market demand should remain the main project s driver 14

15 Gas infrastructure: fit for Europe s energy needs > Gas is the cleanest partner to renewables and a flexible power source 50% CO2 emissions compared to coal Green gasses Road and maritime mobility (LNG/CNG) Flexible and highly efficient electricity production Power-to-gas options > Gas infrastructure Available infrastructure able to transport vast amount of energy across Europe Geographically diversified supplies, significant LNG capacities Existing gas storage ensuring flexibility An energy and economically efficient long-haul transportation Additional instructure will improve security of supply and wellfunctioning markets EU-wide Gas and gas infrastructures deliver on tomorrow s requirements. TYNDP provides the EU-wide assessment frame. 15

16 Thank You for Your Attention Céline Heidrecheid System Development Business Area Manager ENTSOG -- European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas Avenue de Cortenbergh 100, B-1000 Brussels EML: WWW: