International Energy Agency Biofuels & Bioenergy Technology Roadmaps

Transcription

1 Joint Research Center of the European Commission EC JRC National Research Center Kurchatov Institute Workshop International Cooperation in the Field of Bioenergy Moscow, October 2013 International Energy Agency Biofuels & Bioenergy Technology Roadmaps Josef Spitzer IEA Bioenergy based on presentations by Anselm Eisentraut (IEA Secretariat) 1

2 Content IEA Technology Roadmaps Goal and scope Bioenergy Roadmaps Key Policy Actions How2Guides IEA Bioenergy: International Bioenergy RD&D Cooperation 2

3 Content IEA Technology Roadmaps Goal and scope Bioenergy Roadmaps Key Policy Actions How2Guides IEA Bioenergy: International Bioenergy RD&D Cooperation 3

4 CO2 emission reduction scenarios

5 IEA Technology Roadmaps Develop pathways to reach large scale use of low-carbon technologies, based on Energy Technology Perspectives publication, under consultation of industry, governmental and research institutions as well as NGOs Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome these Identify key conversion pathways Identify key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability Identify market requirements and policy needs Define international collaboration needs For more information:

6 IEA Technology Roadmaps Bioenergy for Heat and Power Biofuels for Transport Carbon Capture and Storage Carbon Capture and Storage in Industrial Applications Cement Chemical Industry via Catalytic Processes Concentrating Solar Power Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Energy-efficient Buildings: Heating and Cooling Equipment Energy-efficient Building Envelopes Energy Storage Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles Geothermal Heat and Power High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions Coal-Fired Power Generation Hydrogen Hydropower Low-Carbon Technology for the Indian Cement Industry Nuclear Energy Solar Photovoltaic Energy Smart Grids Solar Heating and Cooling Wind Energy

7 IEA Technology Roadmaps Bioenergy for Heat and Power Biofuels for Transport Carbon Capture and Storage Carbon Capture and Storage in Industrial Applications Cement Chemical Industry via Catalytic Processes Concentrating Solar Power Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Energy-efficient Buildings: Heating and Cooling Equipment Energy-efficient Building Envelopes Energy Storage Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles Geothermal Heat and Power High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions Coal-Fired Power Generation Hydrogen Hydropower Low-Carbon Technology for the Indian Cement Industry Nuclear Energy Solar Photovoltaic Energy Smart Grids Solar Heating and Cooling Wind Energy

8 Key role of bioenergy in a low-carbon future (1)

9 Key role of bioenergy in a low-carbon future (2) 6 C Scenarioemissions: 58 Gt > 2 C Scenarioemissions: 16 Gt > Bioenergy technologies Bioenergy power Bio-power + CCS Bioenergy heat (industry) Bioenergy heat (buildings) Biofuels Total Emissions reduction in Gt CO 2-eq 0.3 Gt CO 2-eq 0.5 Gt CO 2-eq 0.1 Gt CO 2-eq 2.1 Gt CO 2-eq 4.1 Gt CO 2-eq Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 Reaching the 2DS will require 42 Gt CO 2 annual emissions reduction by 2050 through CO 2 -price and strong support policies Biomass is the only renewable energy source that can make a contribution in all sectors, providing around 10% of total CO2 emissions reduction

10 OECD/IEA 2011 Anselm Eisentraut Bioenergy Analyst 2011

11 IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision Final energy (EJ) Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 Demand increases in all regions Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases from 2% today, to 27% in 2050 Diesel/kerosene-type biofuels become particularly important to decarbonise heavy transport modes Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels will be key to meet the roadmap targets Trade will be needed to balance supply and demand for feedstocks and biofuels

12 Advanced Biofuel Production Capacity Note: A load factor of 70% is assumed for fully operational plants. Actual production volumes may be well below nameplate capacity within the first years of production. Currently announced advanced biofuel projects would be sufficient to meet roadmap vision until 2015 Beyond 2015, considerably more new projects will be needed, and even more so after 2020

13 Land Requirements Pressure on agricultural land can be limited and risk of ILUC can be mitigated through: Productivity improvements Efficient use of co-products (biorefinery concept) Use of residues and wastes Use of pasture/ unused land Potential for wood biomass Biomass cascading Land-use zoning and sustainable landuse management schemes Note: This is gross land demand, excluding land-use reduction potential of co-products Land required to produce biofuels increases from 30 Mha today to 100 Mha in 2050, in addition to 1 billion tons of residues Sustainable land expansion will be challenging given increasing demand for food and biomaterial Land-use management is needed (for all agricultural. and forestry land)!

14 Biofuel Production Costs Production costs shown as untaxed retail price Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements

15 OECD/IEA 2011 Anselm Eisentraut Bioenergy Analyst 2012

16 Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Source Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 Bioenergy accounts for 24% of primary energy supply by 2050 in the 2 C Scenario (2DS) In the 2DS Mha of land, i.e. 5-8% of total agricultural land today, will be needed in 2050

17 Bioenergy consumption in buildings declines Traditional biomass use is replaced with more efficient cook stoves, and alternative fuels Buildings becoming more energy-efficient

18 Industry set to triple consumption of bioenergy Bioenergy is low-carbon alternative for coke and coal for high temperature heat production

19 Bioenergy a competitive heat source in many circumstances

20 World bioenergy electricity supply to grow more then ten-fold Bioenergy Share in total electricity generation increases from 1.5% today, to 7.5% in 2050

21 Bioenergy electricity generation costs are strongly scale-dependend

22 Biomass supply prospects - uncertainties remain 2050 (2 C) Source: Based on IPCC SRREN, 2011 Total World Energy Demand 2011 Source: Adapted from IPCC (2011), and supplemented with IEA data Biomass demand for heat and power reaches 5-7 billion tons in 2050 Intermediate targets should be adopted to enhance international biomass trade, and assess costs and impact on sustainability

23 Content IEA Technology Roadmaps Goal and scope Bioenergy Roadmaps Key Policy Actions How2Guides IEA Bioenergy: International Bioenergy RD&D Cooperation 23

24 Ambitious policy framework: Key Policy Actions Create a long-term policy framework for bioenergy, taking into consideration specifics of transport fuels, electricity and heat markets Innovation and Deployment: Provide sustained funding for advanced bioenergy RD&D and commercial deployment. Support research efforts on land availability mapping and biomass potential analysis. Sustainability: Implement internationally agreed sustainability criteria for bioenergy Link economic incentives to sustainability performance of biofuels. Set medium-term targets for sustainable biomass supply to help establish supply chains; incentivize the use of wastes and residues International Collaboration: Engage in international collaboration on capacity building and technology transfer Introduce technical standards for biomass feedstock to promote international trade Promote the alignment of biofuel and other related policies (agriculture, forestry, rural development)

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28 Content IEA Technology Roadmaps Goal and scope Bioenergy Roadmaps Key Policy Actions How2Guides IEA Bioenergy: International Bioenergy RD&D Cooperation 28

29 IEA Bioenergy is an international collaboration set up in 1978 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as one of more than 40 Implementing Agreements within IEA s Energy Technology Network 29

30 Strategic Plan Vision: To achieve a substantial bioenergy contribution to future global energy supplies by accelerating the production and use of environmentally sound, socially accepted and cost-competitive bioenergy on a sustainable basis, thus providing increased security of supply whilst reducing greenhouse gas emissions from energy use. 30

31 Bioenergy already plays a major role supplying ~10% of world primary energy supplies Fuel Shares in World Total Primary Energy Supply 2005 Natural Gas 36% 20% Coal Bioenergy Hydro Other Renewables 6%0% 2% 10% 26% Non renewable waste Nuclear Oil IEA Renewables Information

32 Bioenergy has significant scope to make a greater contribution to secure and sustainable energy provision 32

33 Bioenergy involves a range of feedstocks and technology options that can produce heat, power and liquid fuels 33

34 Agreement Activities Executive Committee Bi-annual ExCo meetings, management of the IA Topical Workshops Annual report, newsletters, website Strategic Position Papers Tasks Coordination of national RD&D programmes, information exchange and joint projects Task meetings, study tours and workshops Publications, reports, newsletters, websites Networking with industrial and other stakeholders 34

35 24 Contracting Parties Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Canada Croatia Denmark European Commission Finland France Germany Ireland Italy Japan Korea Netherlands New Zealand Norway South Africa Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States 35

36 12 Task in three areas Feedstock Forest and agricultural products, MSW and recovered fuels Conversion Combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, anaerobic digestion, fermentation, biorefineries Integrating Research Issues GHG balances, socioeconomic drivers, international trade, systems analysis 36

37 Workshops - held in conjunction with Executive Committee Meetings.. Availability of biomass resources The biorefinery concept Biofuels for transport - part of a sustainable future Bioenergy the impact of indirect land use change Algae the future for bioenergy? Developing sustainable trade in bioenergy Environmental Sustainability of Biomass 37

38 Strategic Position Papers Sustainable Production of Woody Biomass for Energy Municipal Solid Waste and Its Role in Sustainability Benefits of Bioenergy Potential Contribution of Bioenergy to Future World Energy Needs Using a Lifecycle Assessment Approach to Estimate the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Bioenergy 38

39 Annual Reports and Newsletters Annual Report: Report from the Executive Committee, progress reports on each Task, feature article and information on budgets and participation IEA Bioenergy News: Report on ExCo meeting and workshop, editorial from a Member Country, news from the Tasks recent publications and upcoming events 39

40 Acknowledgements Thanks to: The co-authors of the IEA Technology Roadmaps: Anselm Eisentraut, Adam Brown Colleagues from IEA Bioenergy References: Energy Technology Perspectives IEA Technology Roadmaps 40