John Gale General Manager IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme

Transcription

1 The role of CCS as a climate change mitigation option, Energy technology perspectives p John Gale General Manager IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme Public Power Corporation Seminar on CCS Athens, Greece June 24 th 2008

2 Introduction Climate change is it happening? The impacts of climate change The role of CCS in climate change mitigation WEO 2007, IPCC AR4 and Stern Report Update on Energy Technology Perspectives

3 Climate change is it real? There is an accepted body of scientific knowledge that indicates climate change is happening IPCC Assessment Reports There is consensus among NGO s that it is real There is no real consensus among NGO s consensus on how to deal with it There is a growing consensus that the need for action is becoming urgent

4 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (2007) There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades. The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, 2000) projects an increase of global GHG emissions by 25-90% (CO2-eq) between 2000 and 2030, with fossil fuels maintaining their dominant position in the global energy mix to 2030 and beyond. Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

5 Predicted Future Global Warming Global Temperature Global CO 2 Emissions Source: IPCC

6 Predicted Surface Temperatures

7 STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change (already at about 430 ppm CO 2 e all GHG, not just CO 2 )

8 Risks from Climate Change Source: Parry (2001), and IPCC WG 2, April 2007 Water shortages harm up to 250 million in Africa by 2020 Certain agriculture yields in Africa may fall 50% by 2050 Decreased availability of fresh water in Asia might effect more than a billion people by Some areas of Europe are projected to lose up to 60% of their species by The Americas will see reduced snowpacks, leading to water supply problems by 2020

9 Predicted Future Global Warming Characteristics of stabilization scenarios Stabilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq) Global mean temp. increase at equilibrium (ºC) Year CO 2 needs to peak Year CO 2 emissions back at 2000 levell to to to +5 Reduction in 2050 CO 2 emissions compared to to to to +140 Mitigation efforts over the next 2-3 decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels Source: IPCC 2007

10 Role of CCS in climate change mitigation? IPCC Special Report (2005) CCS contributing 15-55% of CO2 mitigation to 2100 IEA Technology Perspectives (2006) CCS 20-28% of mitigation to Second only to energy efficiency. Stern Report (2006) CCS ~10% mitigation by 2025, ~20% by Marginal mitigation costs without t CCS increase by ~60%. EC/Shell (2007) - 7 yrs delay CCS = 90GT CO2 to 2050 = 3 yrs global emissions = 10ppm World Energy Outlook CCS is one of the most promising routes for mitigating emissions in the longer term and could reconcile continued coal burning with the need to cut emissions in the longer term.

11 World Primary Energy Demand 18 l equivalent tonnes of oil billion 18 Other renewables 16 Biomass Hydro 14 Nuclear 12 Gas Oil Coal Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms (IEA/OEACD WEO 2007)

12 How much energy is left in the world? Coal Oil Gas Uranium* Europe Russian Federation North tha America Middle East China South America Africa Other Asia/Pacific Australia/New Zealand Sources: BP Statistical Review 2005; WEC Survey of Energy Resources 2001; Reasonably Assured Sources plus inferred resources to US$80/kg U 1/1/03 from OECD NEA & IAEA Uranium 2003; Resources, Production & Demand updated 2005; *energy equivalence of uranium assumed to be ~20,000 times that of coal

13 Reference Scenario: China & India in Global CO 2 Emissions United States Cumulative Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions European Union Japan China India billion tonnes Around 60% of the global increase in emissions in comes from China & India

14 WEO 2007 Reference Scenario: World s Top Five CO 2 Emitters Gt rank Gt rank Gt rank US China Russia Japan India China overtook the US to become the largest emitter in 2007, while India becomes the third-largest by 2015

15 Carbon Lock-in - New and replacement fossil fueled power plants ,883 2,000 Lifetime Carbon 1,391 Coal = 145 GtC Gas = 63 GtC 1,500 Oil = 20 GtC GW 1, Coal Gas Oil

16 Coal Will Dominate the Power Generation Mix in China CO 2 Emissions from China's Coal-fired Power Plants Existing New to 2015 New O 2 Mt of C Source: WEO Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology, and be crucial for emissions through 2050 and beyond

17 45 42 Gt of CO 2 Gt CCS in industry - 3% CCS in power generation - 9% Nuclear - 13% Renewables - 20% Switching from coal to gas - 8% End Use electricity efficiency - 17% CSS is part of the portfolio of End Use fuel efficiency i - 30% 27 Gt options 23 Gt 15 ALL Options are needed Source: WEO 2007

18 World Energy Outlook 2007 Conclusions Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system New policies i now under consideration would make a major contribution Next 10 years are critical The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid Technology will be locked-in for decades Growing tightness in oil & gas markets Challenge is global so solutions must be global

19 IEA WEO 2007 Reference Scenario: Cumulative Investment, Electricity Oil 53% 24% $11.6 trillion $5.4 trillion Biofuels 1% $4.2 trillion Gas 19% Coal 3% Total investment = $21.9 trillion (in $2006)

20 CCS Commercialization Too few large scale demonstrations to accelerate deployment of CCS technologies This approach could result in risk of project failure High profile failures concerning CCS projects will result in a reluctance to invest in the deployment of CCS technologies We need a path forward to rapid commercialisation of CCS

21 ETP 2 nd Edition, building on ETP2006 and WEO2007 TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONA L In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA AGENCY

22 Energy Technology Perspectives Publication 2008 How to get there TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Short and medium term technology policy needs Special attention ti for technology roadmaps Scenarios & Scenario analysis Baseline WEO2007 Reference Scenario Global stabilization by 2050 (ACT) Global 50% reduction by 2050 (BLUE) Technology chapters: Power sector End-use sectors Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONA L In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA AGENCY

23 Goals This is a study about the role of technology It will result in key technology roadmaps that specify development needs It can be a basis for an international technology cooperation framework It is not meant for country target setting in a post-kyoto framework It is not a study about climate policy instruments In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONA L AGENCY

24 Key Technology Options Supply side Coal + capture Gas + capture CO2 storage Nuclear III + IV Solar PV Solar CSP Wind Biomass IGCC 2 nd generation biofuels Demand side Energy efficient appliances & lighting Efficient building shells Energy efficient motor systems Efficient ICEs Heat pumps p Hybrid cars Car Batteries Fuel cells Industrial CCS TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONA L In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA AGENCY

25 Roadmaps Outline TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONA L In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA AGENCY

26 Scenarios Five power sector ACT MAP and BLUE MAP Fewer nuclear constraints (2000 GW) TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Less renewables expansion Scenarios & Strategies Less CCS to 2050 Less end-use efficiency Three transport sector variants (BLUE) Biofuels, plug-ins and hydrogen (Map) Maximum plug-in hybrids (EV) Maximum hydrogen FCVs (FCV) INTERNATIONA L In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA AGENCY

27 ACT Energy CO 2 emissions in 2050 back to the level of 2005 Revision of ACT as published in ETP2006 Options p with a cost up to USD 50/t CO 2 worldwide (model outcome) This implies a significantly adjusted energy system TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONA L In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA AGENCY

28 Blue Case -50% energy related CO 2 in 2050, compared to 2005 This could be consistent with 450 ppm (depending on post-2050 emissions trends) Options with a cost of up to USD 200/t CO 2 needed (model outcome) Significantly ifi higher h cost with less optimistic assumptions Blue is uncertain, therefore a number of cases needed d Blue is only possible if the whole world participates fully This implies a completely different energy system In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONA L AGENCY

29 The Carbon Challenge Emissions in BASELINE Power sector TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES [Gt CO2 2/yr] Industry Buildings Scenarios & Strategies to Transport Emissions in BLUE Improved efficiency and decarbonizing the power sector could bring emissions back to current levels by To achieve a 50% cut we would also have to revolutionize the transport sector. In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA INTERNATIONA L AGENCY

30 Marg ginal Cost [USD/t CO2] A New Energy Revolution? 1000 Transport alternative fuels High 800 Estimate Industry 600 fuel switching &CCS 400 ETP2008 Power Sector ACT MAP Low 200 Estimate End-use efficiency ETP2008 BLUE CO2 Emissions Reduction From Baseline [Gt CO2/yr] TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 To bring emissions back to current levels by 2050 a CO 2 incentive of $50/t is needed. Reducing emissions by 50% would require a $200/t incentive. In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA INTERNATIONA L AGENCY

31 Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions in the BLUE Case, (DRAFT) Coal-firedwithCCS CCS 38 CCS coal-fired plants (500 MW) TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Gas-fired with CCS 20 CCS gas-fired plants (500 MW) Nuclear Hydropower Biomass Wind Geothermal 26 nuclear plants (1000 MW) 1/3 Canadian hydropower capacity 222 CHP Plants (50 MW) 17,500 Turbines (4 MW) 132 Geothermal Units (100 MW) Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 PV 175 million m 2 CSP 80 CSP plants (250 MW) [GW/yr] In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA INTERNATIONA L AGENCY

32 CCS Use (Draft) ACT Map 6 Gt; BLUE Map 11 Gt CCS Is such expansion really feasible? TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES % REFINERIES ETC. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INDUSTRY 28% POWER 59% BLUE Map CCS shares In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA INTERNATIONA L AGENCY

33 Primary Energy Demand (Draft) 10,000 9,000 8,000 Baseline TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES TECHNOLOGY ,000 6,000 Baseline Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 toe M 5,000 ACT Baseline 4,000 3,000 2, ACT BLUE ACT BLUE BLUE BLUE ACT Baseline 1, Coal Oil Gas Biomass INTERNATIONA L In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA AGENCY

34 Key Messages Blue is achievable but is it realistic? Global action needed, extremely challenging Technology is the key to solving the problem We need a step change in government policies, with closer international ti collaboration The roadmaps can provide a focus for this Efficiency/power sector first Blue implies also deep cuts for transport and industry USD trillion cost Important supply security benefits TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONA L In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA AGENCY

35 Next Steps - Process Publication release June 7-8 G8 Energy Ministers meeting, Aomori, Japan UK press conference? German press conference? Others? Japanese Hokkaido initiative to take forward the roadmaps TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 INTERNATIONA L In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA AGENCY

36 Thank You! John Gale IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme