Long term perspectives (2050) on chemical food safety in the food chain. Future challenges and policy preparedness

Transcription

1 Lng term perspectives (2050) n chemical fd safety in the fd chain Future challenges and plicy preparedness

2 Objectives T identify pssible future challenges t the EU fd safety and nutritin plicy and regulatry framewrk T assess whether the current fd plicy and regulatry framewrk is sufficiently resilient t deal with the challenges and, if apprpriate, identify research needs and develp plicy recmmendatins

3 Fresight apprach Des nt predict the future; cnsiders it as smething that can be shaped Assumes that there are numerus pssible futures, alternative develpments Gathers anticipatry intelligence frm a wide range f knwledge surces in a systematic way Enhances future thinking beynd established pathways and links it t tday s decisin making

4 Scenaris Plausible: must fall within the limits f what might cnceivably happen Internally cnsistent: the cmbinatin f lgics within a scenari must nt have any built-in incnsistency that culd undermine the credibility f the scenari Diverse: shuld be structurally different, nt t clse t each ther t avid being simply variatins f a base case Useful fr decisin-making: shuld prvide specific insights int the future that will infrm decisinmaking (fr us: challenging scenaris)

5 Study prcess Drivers Scenaris Future challenges Evaluatin & ptential plicy respnses

6 Drivers EU ecnmic grwth Glbal trade Agr-fd industry structure Glbal ppulatin grwth Scial chesin EU fd chain Climate change Technlgy uptake Fd values Natural resurce depletin

7 Driver characteristics per scenari Driver "Glbal Fd" "Reginal Fd" "Partnership Fd" "Pharma Fd" Glbal trade Full liberalisatin Disrupted and fragmented EU trade fcus n the US & Canada Full liberalisatin EU ecnmic grwth Medium Decupled, GDP n lnger used as indicatr Stagnatin High Agr-fd chain structure Technlgy uptake Cncentratin High Diversificatin, alternative fd chains High with fcus n envirnmental sustainability Scial chesin Lw High Cncentratin High Limited t lcal cmmunity Cncentratin High with fcus n nutritin & health High Fd values Lw High with fcus n lcal prductin & quality Lw High with fcus n nutritin & health Climate change 2 C threshld f temperature increase will be reached by 2050 Depletin f natural resurces Wrld ppulatin grwth Prgressive natural resurce depletin twards 2050 Wrld ppulatin will increase t abut 9 billin by 2050

8 Glbal Fd Liberalised trade and glbal fd chain EU ne f many players Raw materials surced glbally lng cmplex fd chains Brad technlgy acceptance Cncentratin f agr-fd industry; mass prductin f prcessed, affrdable fds Diets driven by price, taste, cnvenience Health and scial inequalities CC, natural resurces depletin, glbal ppulatin grwth

9 Reginal Fd Lcalisatin/reginalisatin/ hmesteading Technlgy fr sustainable use f resurces Mix f large entities and lcalised fd prductin High scial value f fd; diets lw in animal prtein Strng sense f cmmunal values and cmmunity respnsibility CC, natural resurces depletin glbal ppulatin grwth

10 Partnership Fd Ecnmic stagnatin in EU Transatlantic trade blck Nvel technlgies are imprted, and accepted Big crpratins dminate fd chain (efficient mass prductin) Price and cnvenience drive fd chice, trans-atlantic fd culture Inequalities CC, natural resurces depletin, glbal ppulatin grwth

11 Pharma Fd High-tech wrld maximise HLY, CC adaptatin, diversity "Phd": Pharma & fd sectrs cnverge + ICT; cncentratin EU is a strng player wrldwide Glbal trade and glbal fd chains Health is the main driver fr fd chices, persnalised nutritin Scial well-being? CC, natural resurces depletin, glbal ppulatin grwth

12 Priritised challenges Challenge Title "Glbal Fd" "Reginal Fd" "Partnership Fd" "Pharma Fd" Suitability f the current EU risk assessment prcedures fr new fd ingredients, fd prducts and fd-related technlgies including suitability f expsure data and maximum residue levels Increased sedentary behaviur and snacking due t changed life-style Prvisin f cmplex quality labelling infrmatin t the cnsumer and pprtunity fr fraud Ability t perfrm fficial fd-related cntrls in different future fd systems Fd f different safety and quality classes Differences in the handling f fd in third cuntries due t diverging fd safety standards Intensive animal and plant prductin systems: disease transmissin and nutritinal quality Failure t prvide apprpriate fd safety infrmatin t the cnsumer Temprary shrtage f fresh prduce and fd pverty in a self-sufficient fd system Re-intrductin f fd waste and rganic side-stream prducts in the fd chain Diets based exclusively n plant-based prducts Fd safety respnsibility in the hands f individual prducers Inadequate fd safety and nutritin literacy, lss f fd traditins and increased expsure t unreliable surces f infrmatin The lss f scientific and technlgical knwhw in Eurpe Diets based predminantly n highly prcessed fds and decreased availability f fresh prduce Increased expsure t chemicals and nan-materials frm fd cntact materials migrating in fd and frm the envirnment via packaging waste Safety challenges f prcessed and pre-packaged fd: appearance f new prcessing cntaminants and fd-brne disease utbreaks Ptential drawbacks f persnalised nutritin as a predminant dietary practice Emerging bilgical risks: (b) Differences in the virulence f micrrganisms and parasites and the appearance f new strains

13 Glbal Fd: priritised challenges Main Priritised Challenges Differences in the handling f fd in third cuntries due t diverging fd safety standards Suitability f the current EU risk assessment prcedures fr new fd ingredients, fd prducts and fd-related technlgies (including suitability f expsure data and current maximum residue levels) Ability t perfrm fficial fd-related cntrls Increased sedentary behaviur and snacking due t changed lifestyles & Diets based predminantly n highly prcessed fds and decreased availability f fresh prduce Prvisin f cmplex quality labelling infrmatin t the cnsumer and pprtunity fr fraud

14 Glbal Fd: Plicy ptins Main Priritised Challenges Differences in the handling f fd in third cuntries due t diverging fd safety standards) Suitability f the current EU risk assessment prcedures fr new fd ingredients, fd prducts and fd-related technlgies (including suitability f expsure data and current maximum residue levels) Ability t perfrm fficial fd-related cntrls Increased sedentary behaviur and snacking due t changed lifestyles & Diets based predminantly n highly prcessed fds and decreased availability f fresh prduce Prvisin f cmplex quality labelling infrmatin t the cnsumer and pprtunity fr fraud Ptential plicy ptins Building efficient fd safety standards that als include implementatin details C-regulatin r enfrced self-regulatin by fd business peratrs Enhance cllabratin between risk assessment bdies Hrizn scanning t identify vulnerabilities in the supply chain Lng-term funding mechanisms Expand third cuntry cntrls Enhancing surveillance t ensure fd safety during transprtatin Imprving traceability using related technlgies Fiscal measures Fd refrmulatin and ther incentives Zning and ther limitatins Standards and guidelines fr public prcurement Funding f natinal and Eurpean fd and diet related actins Imprve nutritin educatin Imprve the prvisin f nutritin infrmatin Harmnisatin at internatinal level

15 Reginal Fd: priritised challenges Main Priritised Challenges Fd safety respnsibility in the hands f individual prducers Failure t prvide apprpriate fd safety infrmatin t the cnsumer Re-intrductin f fd waste and rganic side-stream prducts in the fd chain Temprary shrtages f fresh prduce and fd pverty in a self-sufficient fd system

16 Reginal Fd: plicy ptins Main Priritised Challenges Fd safety respnsibility in the hands f individual prducers Failure t prvide apprpriate fd safety infrmatin t the cnsumer Re-intrductin f fd waste and rganic side-stream prducts in the fd chain Ptential plicy ptin Expansin f the scpe f the General Fd Law and hygiene regulatins and the related cntrl implicatins t individual fd prducers Establishment f a list f "risk" prducts Fd safety educatin Scial netwrks and ICTs Expansin f the scpe f General Fd Law and feed hygiene regulatins t individual prducers Cmmunal fd waste handling r recycling centres Temprary shrtages f fresh prduce and fd pverty in a self-sufficient fd system Practive educatin initiatives Emergency mechanisms fr fd re-distributin Qutas Practive nutritin educatin

17 Partnership Fd: priritised challenges Main Priritised Challenges Inadequate fd safety and nutritin literacy, lss f fd traditins and increased expsure t unreliable surces f infrmatin Diets based predminantly n highly prcessed fds and decreased availability f fresh prduce The lss f scientific and technlgical knw-hw in Eurpe Suitability f the current EU risk assessment prcedures fr new fd ingredients, fd prducts and fd-related technlgies (incl. suitability f expsure data and maximum residue levels)

18 Partnership Fd: plicy ptins Main Priritised Challenges Ptential plicy ptin Inadequate fd safety and nutritin literacy, lss f fd traditins and increased expsure t unreliable surces f infrmatin Diets based predminantly n highly prcessed fds and decreased availability f fresh prduce The lss f scientific and technlgical knw-hw in Eurpe Suitability f the current EU risk assessment prcedures fr new fd ingredients, fd prducts and fd-related technlgies (incl. suitability f expsure data and maximum residue levels) Mandatry fd safety and nutritin educatin Increase Trans-Atlantic Cnsumer Dialgue Fiscal measures Fd refrmulatin and ther incentives Zning and ther limitatins Standards and guidelines fr public prcurement Funding f natinal and Eurpean fd and diet related actins Imprve nutritin educatin Imprve the prvisin f nutritin infrmatin Addressing fd gvernance barriers Reduce cst f regulatry cmpliance Imprving cnsumer perceptin f innvatin Increased c-peratin with fd business peratrs Risk-benefit assessment and management Streamlining risk assessment by increasing the cllabratin between all actrs

19 Pharma Fd: priritised challenges Main Priritised Challenges Ptential drawbacks f persnalised nutritin as a predminant dietary practice Ability t perfrm fficial fd-related cntrls Suitability f the current EU risk assessment prcedures fr new fd ingredients, fd prducts and fd-related technlgies (incl. suitability f expsure data and maximum residue levels)

20 Pharma Fd: plicy ptins Main Priritised Challenges Ptential drawbacks f persnalised nutritin as a predminant dietary practice Ptential plicy ptin Adapting r creating an effective regulatry framewrk Redefining health and nutritin claims Regulating "phd" manufacture: "Phd licence" Ability t perfrm fficial fd-related cntrls Pst-market mnitring and nutrivigilance" cntrls Expand third cuntry cntrls Suitability f the current EU risk assessment prcedures fr new fd ingredients, fd prducts and fd-related technlgies (incl. suitability f expsure data and maximum residue levels) Dealing with cumulative effects and lng term expsure

21 Key insights The legislative framewrk gverning fd safety in the EU is rbust, effective and efficient Actin needed fr imprving the effectiveness f EU nutritin plicies Harmnisatin f risk assessment appraches t allw fr the inclusin f ther legitimate factrs such as health benefits and sci-ecnmic cnsequences A suitable and harmnised metric fr benchmarking and mnitring fd safety perfrmance in the EU needs t be established An effective early warning system fr emerging hazards at EU level is missing Adaptatin f fficial cntrl and inspectin services t future needs Investment in prviding fd safety and nutritin educatin t the public

22 Cmmn cnsideratins Cmplexity f fd system Safe, nutritius, affrdable, sustainable Hlistic, integrated plicy apprach Future stresses Challenging resilience, adding cmplexity Trade-ffs necessary? Hw t address them (transparency)

23 JRC Team: Kallipi Mylna Petrs Maragkudakis Anne-Katrin Bck Jan Wllgast Sandra Caldeira Franz Ulberth The reprt can be fund here