What will the future bring us?

Transcription

1 What will the future bring us? ALFA FINAL CONFERENCE, TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 23 rd, WAALWIJ K Eddy Moors Head Climate change and adaptive land and water management, Alterra Professor Water and Climate, VU University Amsterdam

2 Main message Shifting patterns in time and space Human behavior Stimulating continuous system innovation by incorporation of newly developed concepts, such as climate smart agriculture. Integrated approach combining floods and droughts solutions

3 What can be said about climate extremes?

4 Return periods of daily temperature compared to with a return period of 1 x 20 years (IPCC, 2012) Decrease in return period implies more frequent extreme events

5 Return periods of daily precipitation compared to with a return period of 1 x 20 years (IPCC, 2012) Decrease in return period implies more frequent extreme events

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7 Climate Change Acceptable risk Adaptation (with investments) Frequency x 2 x 1 Adaptation (autonomous) P 2 P 1 Climate parameter (e.g.rainfall)

8 Perceptions See e.g.:

9 Comparing SF Bay area - Netherlands Institutional arrangements How do cultural and political differences shape attitudes toward flood protection and climate change adaptation?

10 Comparing SF Bay area - Netherlands Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

11 Comparing SF Bay area - Netherlands Challenges: overcoming the barriers Long term commitment Integrated solutions Knowledge Finance

12 Higher intensity showers Droughts Heat waves

13 Torrential rains in urban areas Copenhagen: Method 1 larger sewers, underground basins and pumping stations Method 2 manage rainwater locally instead of guiding it into the sewers Method 3 ensure that flooding takes place only where it does least damage so-called plan b

14 Impact of water shortage on economic activities Transport Agriculture (irrigation requirements) Water quality Energy

15 Agri: Key messages - Water scenarios Water stress for agriculture will increase in the Mediterranean region and South Eastern Europe. Socio-economic drivers, technological development and agricultural policies have more effect to irrigation water withdrawals and water stress than climate change Technology innovation can compensate climate change impacts. Model simulations project the amount of fresh water resources available under average future climatic conditions will be sufficient for maintaining irrigation provided that water saving technologies for irrigation are applied. The bulk of the total agricultural production in Europe is produced without irrigation, and climate adaptation strategies should include both irrigated and rain fed agriculture.

16 Water quality Water temperature increased 2.5 degrees since 1970 in the Rhine (BUND 2009) Thermal discharges of anthropogenic origin could further broaden the range of the rise in water temperature to be expected. Especially with regard to the distant future, it might be necessary to adjust the maximum admissible quantities of heat input here. (Hardenbicker et al., 2011)

17 Energy Hydro-power Cooling: 78% of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling

18 Reductions in number of days of usable capacity of power plants Summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of % in Europe depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Van Vliet et al, Nature Climate Change, 2012

19 Were are we heading?

20 Key questions: 1. How to engage stakeholders? Differences in perceptions! 2. Should we make inundation polders (such as the Hördter Rheinaue and La Bassee case) time specific? 3. Can we increase the sponge capacity of our landscape?

21 Key Q1: How to engage stakeholders? Enhancing public participation e.g. by community based monitoring (group learning, ownership, decision making à smartphone) Reducing water loss and water consumption Red for green and blue

22 Key Q2: Should we make inundation polders time specific? How conservative is our way of thinking? Will there be a 3th crop grown in Germany? Distributed but integrated (landscape) solutions

23 Traditional strategy Adaptation strategy Large number of opportunities More commitment provides speed and innovation Project area is increased to the region More spatial functions added Limited opportunities Integrated approach Slow development Small area Quality of living Single purpose Sectoral approach Short time horizon Costs Quality of living Long time horizon Costs

24 Key Q3: Can we increase the sponge capacity of our landscape? Combining land use planning with flood and drought management, creating sponges (River Eden?) Farmland can play a key role in climate adaptation. A transition towards healthy soil conditions improves water infiltration and benefits sustainable agriculture (e.g. conservation tillage, permanent crops, agro-forestry,..., CSA); How do we combine the much needed greening of urban areas with innovative water measures that cool the city environment and improve groundwater infiltration as well (e.g. wadi s, decoupling of rainwater from sewage systems,...).

25 Summary Changes in extremes (dry, wet, hot) are taking place and are expected to increase; Integrated approach combining solutions for floods with those for droughts; Can we further increase the sponge capacity of our landscape? Water demand management is essential, and therefore public participation; How do we share our waters, now and in the future? Keep on adapting!

26 Thank you contact: