SEMI Northeast Forum The Impact of Materials on PV Technology. Stanley Merritt Global Business Development Manager DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions

Transcription

1 SEMI Northeast Forum The Impact of Materials on PV Technology Stanley Merritt Global Business Development Manager DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions September 28, 2011

2 The Vision of DuPont To be the world s most dynamic science company, creating sustainable solutions essential to a better, safer, healthier life for people everywhere. We are a market-driven science company.

3 DuPont is a Global Leader in PV Materials Cell Materials Module Materials Balance of System Materials Solamet metallizations Tedlar films for backsheet Rynite frames Kapton substrates Elvax Ionomer PVB encapsulants Kalrez Zalak parts & seals Niapure sodium metal Teflon frontsheets Vespel parts Kapton photo courtesy of Solarion AG

4 Addressable Market in PV Materials c-si Modules Bill of Materials Jcn Box 6% Other 13% Silicon 44% Standard $17B FS Ag 13% Backsheet 10% Encapsulant 7% Glass 7% High Efficiency Glass 10% Silicon 38% Other 10% $37B Metaliz's 15% Backsheet 13% FntSheet Wet Chem 1% 1% Encap Film 9% Jbox-Inverter 3% TF Flex Modules Bill of Materials Source: DuPont Jcn Box 5% Other 25% Gases/ Targets 10% a-si $0.3B Frame 16% Backsheet 11% Encapsulant 7% Substrate 26% Cell (Gases/ Targets) 41% Jcn Box 9% CIGS $1.2B Encapsulant 4% Frontsheet 28% Substrate 7% Backsheet 11%

5 Materials Cost Impact on PV Cells & Modules Bill of Materials Other Materials (3%) Packaging (2%) Cost of Materials in US$/W Other Mat ls (11%) Junction Box (3%) Encapsulant (7%) Backsheet (10%) Front Glass (10%) Metal Paste (17%) Gasket/Edge Seal (4%) Junction Box (5%) Encapsulant (5%) Gases (6%) Targets (7%) Module Frame (13%) Backsheet (18%) Silicon Metal (42%) TCO Front Glass (36%) 0 Crystalline Silicon Thin Film Source: DuPont

6 Materials Impact Three Critical Areas Essential to Achieving Grid Parity 1. Efficiency 2. Lifetime 3. Cost Drive Lower PV LCOE to Achieve Grid Parity

7 Grid Parity Expected in Most Major Electricity Markets by 2020 Residential Markets at Grid Parity Industrial Markets at Grid Parity Italy Brazil Spain Japan Germany Australia Mexico France S. Korea UK USA India China Canada Taiwan Iran Russia S. Africa Ukraine Saudi Arabia Italy Brazil Spain Mexico China Japan India Germany USA UK Russia Australia S. Africa France Iran Ukraine S.Korea Saudi Arabia Taiwan Canada Note: Electricity usage in Top 20 countries accounts for 80% of global demand Source: Q-Cells

8 Achieving Grid Parity in the U.S. Requires ~50% Further Reduction in PV LCOE PV LCOE and Grid Price (US /kwh) Residential ~23 c/kwh (c-si) (Small Scale) 52% Commercial ~19 c/kwh (c-si) (Med Scale) 46% Utility 10 ~14c/kWh (CdTe) (Large Scale) 53% Unsubsidized PV Cost Avg Resid'l grid price (2010) Unsubsidized PV Cost Avg Comml grid price (2010) Unsubsidized PV Cost Avg Industrial grid price (2010) Source: DuPont, US DOE

9 Roadmap to Grid Parity Industry Technology Roadmaps Timeline Standard Selective Emitter Back Contact c-si 14% 21% Average Module Efficiency Tandem Junction High Efficiency Tandem TF 10% 14% TF Flex a-si on Flex CIGS on Flex Roll-to-Roll CIGS 6% 13% Module Lifetime yr warranties yr warranties 30-40yr warranties System Cost Bankable Capacity >10 GW Retail Grid Parity in portions of EU & US <$2/W < 8 cents/kwh PV LCOE

10 Key Drivers of PV Levelized Cost of Electricity IRR IRR System Revenue System Cost Modules BOS O&M Financing PV LCOE Lifetime Power Output System Efficiency System Life Insolation Annual Degradation Shading Low-light performance Component failures

11 Materials Impact Three Critical Areas Essential to Achieving Grid Parity 1. Efficiency 2. Lifetime 3. Cost Industry roadmap to 20+% c-si cells, enabled by new materials Robust materials enabling >25 year module lifetimes with high performance Lower cost, lightweight polymers to replace glass and metals

12 1. Efficiency 2. Lifetime 3. Cost Industry roadmap to 20+% c-si cells, enabled by new materials Robust materials enabling >25 year module lifetimes with high performance Lower cost, lightweight polymers to replace glass and metals

13 PV Technology Roadmap: c-si Cells/Modules Improved metallization pastes have enabled improvements in conventional cell designs ~1.5% / year (relative) 2011-Future Additional metallization improvements required for new cell designs >20% Module Efficiency ~14% Module Efficiency Conventional Cells High Efficiency Cells Selective Emitter Local BSF Rear Passivation N-type Wafers Back Contact Cells Metal Wrap-thru Emitter Wrap-thru Interdigitated BC Source: DuPont

14 1. Efficiency 2. Lifetime 3. Cost Industry roadmap to 20+% c-si cells, enabled by new materials Robust materials enabling >25 year module lifetimes with high performance Lower cost, lightweight polymers to replace glass and metals

15 Materials Impact Module Lifetime & Performance Performance Backsheet Requirements Ultra Violet (UV) Reliability Durability Power Output Power Output Time Time Transmitted Reflected Temperature Peak Cycling Corrosion Precipitation Humidity Safety Electrical Insulation Shock Shorting Materials Choices Drive Real Differences in Lifetime Power Output Joint Research Center: In-Field Study 2 Power Loss of 204 Field Aged c-si Modules 1: Ross, R. G., Jr. and Smokler, M. I. (1986) Electricity from photovoltaic solar cells: Flat-Plate Solar Array Project final report. Volume VI: Engineering sciences and reliability. JPL Publication, 86-31, volume VI. NASA, Springfield, VA 2: Joint Research Centre (JRC), The Results of Performance Measurements of Field-aged c-si Photovoltaic Modules, Prog. PV: Res. Appl, 2009.

16 Relying on Tier 1 Status Alone Does Not Guarantee Quality Modules Module Module :: W c-si c-si Module Module from from Tier Tier 1, 1, Bankable Bankable Module Module Maker Maker Manufactured Manufactured in in with with PET PET backsheets backsheets Degradation Issues Financial Impact Cell corrosion Polymer discoloration Loss of insulation (unsafe for use) Power degradation: -1.4%/yr compounded vs. expected -0.5%/yr Energy Value (US$ 000's) Lifetime Energy Value Reduction ~10% or US$500,000 in Present Value (1MW 12 /kwh*) ~10% Reduction in Energy Value over life of project = ~$500,000 in Present Value *Financials projected with System Adviser Model from NREL, Nominal Values Shown Years Assumptions: 1MW System, 12c/kWh flat sell rate, 8% Discount Rate, 2.5% Inflation

17 1. Efficiency 2. Lifetime 3. Cost Industry roadmap to 20+% c-si cells, enabled by new materials Robust materials enabling >25 year module lifetimes with high performance Lower cost, lightweight polymers to replace glass and metals

18 Metal & Glass Replacement Reduces Both Weight and Total Installed Cost Conventional New Design Module Front Glass Fluoropolymer film Module Frame Aluminum Polymer composite Racking System Aluminum or Steel Polymer composite Number of Parts Dozens 3 Installed Cost Standard 25% reduction System Weight Standard > 50% reduction Source: DuPont

19 Dozens of Materials Innovations in Development >20% by Efficiency 2012 N-type silicon wafers Improved cell metallization Higher aspect ratio metallization Improved anti-reflective coatings Textured tabbing ribbons Improved transparent conductive oxides Better reflector films Higher blue light transparent materials More temperature resistant substrates Thermally conductive substrates Source: DuPont Cost by 2015 Thinner Si wafers Upgraded metallurgical grade silicon Faster lamination cycle time Simpler mounting & racking systems Lower moisture sensitivity encapsulants Thinner encapsulant films Thinner backsheet films New backsheet constructions Lighter weight materials 30+ years Lifetime by 2015 Improved encapsulants Improved anti-soiling/fouling coatings More durable backsheets Better edge sealing Higher reliability inverters Thermally conductive substrates Microinverters Flexible moisture barriers More durable interconnects $2/Wp Installed LCOE LCOE (US (US /kwh) /kwh)

20 Summary Reduce PV LCOE by 50% to achieve broad-based grid parity Materials improvements deliver improved efficiency, lifetime performance and cost Clear roadmap to grid parity driven by materials innovations Understanding material choices and specifications is critical to delivering your targeted project returns For More Information on PV Materials: photovoltaics.dupont.com

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22 Backsheet Type Has Significant Impact on Module Power Degradation JPL: Module Performance Study 1 Standard Reliable Module Design Key Safety Standards Functional and Reliability Requirements All modules approved in the final specification contained Tedlar Percent Power Loss (%) Joint Research Center: In-Field Study 2 Power Loss of 204 Field Aged c-si Modules (19-23 years outdoor exposure) Glass Plastic Polyester, Al Silicone Backsheet Type Tedlar, Al Tedlar Consistent low power loss of TPT TM backsheet in PV modules over >20 years Materials Choices Drive Real Differences in Lifetime Power Output and are Seldom Reflected in Financial Models Used by Banks & Developers 1: Ross, R. G., Jr. and Smokler, M. I. (1986) Electricity from photovoltaic solar cells: Flat-Plate Solar Array Project final report. Volume VI: Engineering sciences and reliability. JPL Publication, 86-31, volume VI. NASA, Springfield, VA 2: Joint Research Centre (JRC), The Results of Performance Measurements of Field-aged c-si Photovoltaic Modules, Prog. PV: Res. Appl, 2009.