A changing role for Canadian biofuels

Transcription

1 A changing role for Canadian biofuels Warren Mabee, Saeed Ghafghazi, Jean Blair 12 th Annual World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology Montreal, Canada 22 July 2015

2 Role inside NSERC Bioconversion Network Focus on Life Cycle Assessment, techno-economic modelling, policy Put network outputs into context Develop ideas for the future application of technologies

3 Example One important thing to consider is that replacing dirty fossil fuel gives you much greater benefit than converting less GHG intense fossil fuels like gasoline even when we are dealing with residues Wood pellets from residues Cellulosic ethanol from residues Forest carbon Total emissions Bioenergy, excluding forest carbon Mckechnie et al. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45,

4 Lack of action on GHG emissions Total GHG Emissions (MT) National Action Program on Climate Change (1995) Canada s Green Plan (1990) Current goal: 17% below 2005 emissions by 2020 (about 609 MT/a, or about 2% higher than 1990 levels) On track for about 734 MT/a by 2020 Action Plan 2000 Project Green (2005) Kyoto Protocol (1997) Climate Change Plan for Canada (2003)

5 2009 Emissions Total emissions (2009): 690 MT CO 2 -e Other industrial processes Waste Agriculture Fossil fuel production Other transport emissions Fugitive sources Light duty road transport Other stationary combustion sources Heavy duty road transport Electricity production

6 % increase in GHG emissions ( ) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 54% Heavy duty road transport 44% Fugitive sources 27% Light duty road transport 25% Fossil fuel production 20% Other transport emissions 16% Waste 7% Electricity production -18% Industrial processes -33% Other stationary combustion sources

7 Summary (I) Heavy duty transport trucks/diesel fuel is the fastest-growing source of GHG emissions in Canada

8 Forest feedstocks 100 Forest removals (Mt) & LULUCF emissions (Mt CO 2 -equivant) Industrial roundwood (Mt) LULUCF (Total, Mt CO2e) LULUCF (Forest land, Mt CO2e)

9 Canadian feedstock potentials (from literature) Biomass type Low estimate (Mdt/year) High estimate (Mdt/year) Forest harvest residues Processing residues Unharvested biomass 0 30 Disturbance wood (unsustainable) 0 51 Wood pellets Agricultural harvest residues 9 48 Solid waste (Mt/year) Fast growing trees/energy crops (low) Fast growing trees/energy crops (high) TOTAL (Mdt/year) Energy equivalent (gross) (PJ)

10 Canadian potentials for biofuels Fuel potential (PJ/year) Gasoline (2012) Ethanol low Ethanol high Diesel (2012) F-T low F-T high Petroleum Biodiesel (conventional) Ethanol (conventional) Fast growing trees/energy crops Solid waste (Mt/year) Agricultural harvest residues Wood pellets Disturbance wood (unsustainable) Unharvested biomass Processing residues Forest harvest residues

11 Summary (II) Heavy duty transport trucks/diesel fuel is the fastest-growing source of GHG emissions in Canada Review of feedstock supply suggests no advantage in terms of total availability between agriculture and forestry residues; municipal wastes are very limited; energy crops have huge potential

12 Forest fibre cascade

13 Location of forest-based infrastructure Pulp and Paper Canada 2014; Sawmills, 2015

14 Population and transport corridors Pulp and Paper Canada 2014; Sawmills, 2015

15 Summary (III) Heavy duty transport trucks/diesel fuel is the fastest-growing source of GHG emissions in Canada Review of feedstock supply suggests no real advantage between agriculture, forestry; municipal wastes are very limited; energy crops have huge potential Need to capitalize on existing feedstock supply chains, infrastructure availability; build on flows of biomass through the system; production and demand need to line up

16 Takeaway Future role of Canadian biofuels should be to meet our biggest need heavy duty transport There are some likely places for biorefinery development to take advantage of existing feedstock supply chains Technologies developed within the NSERC Bioconversion Network have a big role to play Need is for a policy which deals with a specific Canadian problem, and takes advantage of a unique Canadian opportunity

17 Team and partners DR Stewart Fast DR Saeed Ghafghazi DR Jamie Stephen DR Linghong Zhang Jean Blair PHD FFABnet Functionalized Fibre and Biochemicals Network Jessica Buttery MPA Sinead Earley PHD Megan MacCallum MA Lauren Malo MA Nathan Manion PHD Peter Milley PHD Ricardo Smalling PHD Ashton Taylor MSC