Permit & Photochemical Modeling Update James W. Boylan Georgia EPD Air Protection Branch Unit Coordinator, Data and Modeling Unit

Transcription

1 Permit & Photochemical Modeling Update James W. Boylan Georgia EPD Air Protection Branch Unit Coordinator, Data and Modeling Unit AWMA Regulatory Update Conference June 6, 2012 Atlanta, GA

2 Data & Modeling Unit Jac Capp Air Protection Branch Jimmy Johnston, P.E. Planning & Support Program Jim Boylan, Ph.D. Data & Modeling Unit Permit Modeling Team Yan Huang, Ph.D. Henian Zhang, Ph.D. Yunhee Kim, Ph.D. SIP Modeling Team Byeong Kim, Ph.D. Tao Zeng, Ph.D. Di Tian, Ph.D. 2

3 Permit Modeling C( x, y, z) 2 2 = Q 1 y z exp + 2 πuσ 2 2 yσ z σ y σ z

4 Nakanishi Property Line Coile Middle School Property Line Coile Middle School 1 mile buffer surrounding Nakanishi TCE Con cen trations Mil es

5 Permit Modeling Guidance PSD Modeling - AERMOD Georgia EPD PSD Permit Application Guidance Document, 2012 Significance Analysis - Class I and II NAAQS Compliance Analysis Increment Analysis - Class I and II Class II Visual Plume Analysis Air Toxic Modeling AERMOD or ISC Guideline for Ambient Impact Assessment of Toxic Air Pollutant Emissions, 1998 Acceptable Ambient Concentrations Quarry Modeling AERMOD or ISC Guideline for Modeling PM10 Ambient Concentration in Areas Impacted by Quarry Operation Producing Crushed Stone, 2008 PM10 NAAQS 5

6 PSD Modeling Updates Streamlined Review Process PSD Coordinator Detailed Schedule of Deliverables Increased Manager Involvement Modeling Data Requests Off-Site Emissions Inventory Meteorological Data Background Concentrations 6

7 Off-Site Emissions Inventory GA EPD will create a statewide emission inventory for the PSD air impact analysis NAAQS & Increment PM10, PM2.5, NOx, SO2, and CO Follow 40 CFR 51 Appendix W Request for Qualifications (RFQ) Hope to complete inventory by early 2013 GA EPD will maintain future updates to the emission inventory through the permit application process. All emissions will be available on-line 7

8 Meteorological Data GA EPD will develop 5-years of meteorological data for each ASOS surface and upper air pairing Based on distance and climatological zone Each data set will have three different surface roughness values (0.05, 0.5, 1.0) Applicant will run AERSURFACE for the proposed plant site to determine which data set to use Hope to complete by early 2013 All data sets will be available on-line 8

9 Stations & Climate Zones 9

10 DRAFT Station Pairings 10

11 Background Concentrations GA EPD will develop background concentrations for each county based on the most recent 3-year design values Ozone, PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, Pb Hope to complete by end of 2012 Will be updated annually All data sets will be available on-line GA EPD will make available (by request) hourly pollutant concentrations for Tier 3 analyses and other advanced analyses. 11

12 Secondary Impacts Earlier this year, EPA granted the Sierra Club s Petition to engage in rule making to evaluate updates to Appendix W and, as appropriate, incorporate new analytical techniques or models for ozone and secondary PM2.5. AERMOD does not have the ability to model secondary impacts EPA s Timeline 11th Conference on Air Quality Modeling (2014) 12

13 Options to Consider SCI-CHEM and CALPUFF Dispersion models with full chemistry PM2.5 Off-Set Trading Ratios EPA s default 40:1 for SO2:PM2.5 and 200:1 for NOx:PM2.5 were withdrawn by EPA Need to perform region specific fine grid photochemical modeling to develop new ratios Ozone Emission Sensitivities ppb ozone/ton NOx, ppb ozone/ton VOC Full blown photochemical modeling? Resource intensive (computer and personnel) 13

14 Annual PM2.5 Offset Ratios

15 Photochemical SIP Modeling Meteorology (WRF) Air Quality (CMAQ) Emissions Inventory (NIF) Emissions (SMOKE) MOVES Inputs

16 CMAQ is a Grid-Based Model u i K i u i K i R i u i K i c t i + ( uc ) ( ) i = K ci + Ri + Si S i S i

17 Solving the ADE Need to solve the Atmospheric Diffusion Equation for EACH species in EACH grid cell for EACH time step (200 * 100 horizontal grid cells) x (19 vertical layers) x (100 species) x (4 time step/hour) x (24 hours/day) x (365 days/year) IN AN ANNUAL SIMULATION, NEED TO SOLVE OVER 1,300,000,000,000 PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS!!!!

18 Attainment SIP Updates Georgia is meeting the 1997 ozone NAAQS (85 ppb) and the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS (15 µg/m 3 ) Working on approval of ozone maintenance plan for Atlanta and PM2.5 maintenance plans for Atlanta, Macon, Floyd County, and Chattanooga Atlanta was designed nonattainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS (75 ppb) 15 counties Marginal ozone areas do not require modeling Regional Haze periodic reports do not require photochemical modeling. 18

19 SEMAP Project SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project STAD and Coordinating Committee Workgroups Technical Analysis, Emission Inventory, Meteorology, Emissions & Air Quality Modeling, MOVES, EGUs, Fires, Regional Haze, SO2 Managed through SESARM Same group of states that were involved with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV 19

20 Current SEMAP Work Emission Inventory Development 2007 (completed) and 2018 WRF Meteorological Modeling 2007 (completed) SMOKE and CMAQ Modeling Ozone, PM2.5, Regional Haze 2007 and 2018 Ozone Emission Sensitivities NOx and VOC emissions Regional Haze Periodic Reporting 20

21 SO2 Emissions

22 NOx Emissions

23

24 CMAQ Modeling Domain 24

25 SEMAP 12-km Modeling Domain

26 2018 Air Quality Modeling 2018 Annual Emissions Modeling SMOKE for most source sectors MOVES: Ratio Approach using Inventory Mode 2018 Annual CMAQ Modeling Projections of ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze Follow EPA s RRF approach Ozone Emission Sensitivity Modeling Statewide 30% NOx and VOC emission reductions Ozone season (5 months) at 12 km Performed for 10 individual SEMAP states, Maryland, and neighboring RPOs (28 model runs) 26

27 Georgia NOx vs. VOCs Georgia Sensitivities: Summer GA_PNOx GA_SNOx VVOC O3 (ppb) Athens_GA Atlanta_1_GA Atlanta_2_GA Augusta_GA Columbus_GA Macon_GA Murray_GA Red numbers indicate number of days used in RRF calculations

28 VOC/NOx Sensitivity Updates Previous Sensitivity Modeling Planned Sensitivity Modeling CMAQv4.4 CMAQv5.0 1-Month Summer Episode 5-Month Ozone Season VISTAS 2009 OTW BaseD SEMAP 2018 SEMAP-wide VOC Reductions State-wide VOC Reductions County/State NOx Reductions State-wide NOx Reductions MOBILE6 MOVES Absolute Difference RRF Approach >70 ppb Cutoff >60 ppb Cutoff 28

29 SEMAP Modeling Schedule 29

30 Regional Haze Obligations 5-year Periodic Reports First reports due December 2012 (NC, SC) 2018 Regional Haze SIP Revisions Due July 31, 2018 Work must begin by mid

31 SEMAP Regional Haze TSD Current Visibility Conditions Examine IMPROVE Measurements Emission Inventory Changes VISTAS 2002 (actual), 2007 SEMAP (actual), VISTAS 2009 (projected), and VISTAS 2018 (projected) Update 2007 SEMAP with 2009, 2010, 2011 CEMS Status of Emission Controls in SIP Federal and State Controls Assessment of Current SIP 31

32 Regional Haze SO2 Emissions

33 Regional Haze at COHU Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide Path Cohutta - W20% Data Days Haziness Index (Deciviews) Year Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction Rolling Average

34 Contact Information Jim Boylan, Ph.D. Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA