6th EU Framework IP Project 1 November October 2010 Coordination at CESR and SYKE 23 partners, 17 countries 7 Million euros EU contribution

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1 The SCENES Project Focusing on Work Package 3 Water Quality Modelling, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Waste Water Forum Marlow 20 th November 2008 Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States 6th EU Framework IP Project 1 November October 2010 Coordination at CESR and SYKE 23 partners, 17 countries 7 Million euros EU contribution 1

2 Aim of the project To develop and analyse a set of scenarios of Europe s freshwater futures up to 2050 (2025) The scenarios will: provide reference point for strategic planning alert policymakers and stakeholders allow river basin managers to test water plans Aim of the Project Scenarios for water quality and quantity Qualitative and quantitative scenarios On a pan-european scale Using stakeholder participation, modelling and indicators 2

3 Organisation of the Project Continental Scale Modelling Based on an existing Water resources model called WaterGap Version 2 Develop fine-scale (5 arc-minutes) model of Europe s hydrology (Improved capability for simulating extreme events droughts, floods; enable water quality modeling ) (WaterGAP 3) Develop continental-scale model of non-point source loading from agriculture Develop continental-scale model of point source loading Develop continental-scale water quality model (coliform bacteria, dissolved oxygen, salinity ) (Extend WaterGAP) 3

4 Water Quality Modelling Establishing inputs to the model Objectives 1. Generate country scale estimates of loads of selected water quality variables 2. Determine the means to downscale loads estimates to the grid cells used in the WaterGap model 3. To make these estimates for year 2000 and then for 2005, 2025 and

5 Water Quality Variables Full List BOD TDS Total Coliforms Nitrogen Phosphorus Water temperature Dissolved Oxygen down-the drain chemical Water Quality Variables So Far BOD TDS Total Coliforms Nitrogen Phosphorus Water temperature Dissolved Oxygen down-the drain chemical 5

6 Pollutant Loads Considered Point sources Domestic effluent Industrial discharges Urban runoff Diffuse Sources Land Use (livestock, Cropping, Forestry..) Scattered Settlements Point Source Estimates Domestic Effluent Population x per capita emission factor Rates of connection to sewerage Level of treatment at STP Downscaling is based on population in grid squares 6

7 Point Sources BOD per Capita Country/Region BOD 5 (g/cap/day) Africa 37 Egypt 34 Asia, Middle Est, Latin America 40 West Bank and Gaza Strip (Palestine) 50 Canada, Europe, Russia, Oceania 60 Denmark 62 Germany 62 Greece 57 Italy 60 Sweden 75 Turkey 38 Point Sources Levels of treatment % removal Determinand None Primary Secondary Tertiary BOD (2) Nitrogen (1) Phosphorus (1) TDS (3) Sources: (1) Grizetti and Bouraoui (2006); (2) Perry and Venderklein (1996); (3) No data available: 7

8 Point Sources Connections and Treatment COUNTRY Connected (%) Rural (%) Urban (%) Prim. Second Tert. Not Treated Albania Algeria Austria Belarus Belgium Point Source Estimates Domestic Effluent Population x per capita emission factor Rates of connection to sewerage Level of treatment at STP Downscaling is based on population in grid squares Industrial Effluent Typical concentrations for industrial sectors x return flows from sector At least secondary treatment (linked to national domestic treatment) Downscaling by return flows per grid square 8

9 Manufacturing Effluent concentrations all sectors (mg/l) Determinand Mean Min 25% 50% 75% Max Sample size BOD TN TP TDS Manufacturing BOD Effluent concentrations by sector (mg/l) Industrial sector Mean Min 25% 50% 75% Max Sample size Food Textile Paper Metal Mixed Chemical

10 Predicted [tonnes/km^2/yr] % Agricultural Land /28/2009 Point Source Estimates Domestic Effluent Population x per capita emission factor Rates of connection to sewerage Level of treatment at STP Downscaling is based on population in grid squares Industrial Effluent Typical concentrations for industrial sectors x return flows from sector At least secondary treatment (linked to national domestic treatment) Downscaling by return flows per grid square Urban Runoff Typical concentrations x urban runoff volume Treatment in STPs assumed Downscaling by Urban runoff per grid square Diffuse Source Estimates - BOD Calibrated export coefficients for land use classes (a) (b) R2= Observed [tonnes/km^2/yr] Livestock [units/km^2] diff LSU agri agri LSU 10

11 Diffuse source estimates - TDS Main source is Irrigation Irrigation return flows x typical salt concentration Salt concentration depends on Natural salinity Likely irrigation technology (based on GDP) Arid or humid areas No downscaling because salinity is calculated at the grid cell level En v i r o n m e n t a l Sy s t e m s Re s e a r c h Domestic - BOD En v i r o n m e n t a l Sy s t e m s Re s e a r c h 11

12 BOD - Manufacturing BOD Diffuse Pollution 12

13 TDS - Domestic TDS - Diffuse 13

14 Notes of Caution Manufacturing typical concentration data are very variable and not sufficient across all sectors Manufacturing return flows are related to population and not locations of industry BOD estimation methods are preliminary give very different results and we need to know which is better Developing another method Generally we need to a lot of checking against measurements or other estimates of point and diffuse loads. Objectives of water quality modelling in SCENES 1. Build a simple water quality model on global scale to assess future state of aquatic ecosystems and for developing pan- European scenarios with reference to the objectives of the Water Framework Directive 2. Develop long-term (up to 2050) water quality scenarios with full European coverage. 3. Develop a tool for on-going assessment of water quality in Europe. 4. Develop innovative continental-scale approach to water quality modeling. 14

15 Basic variables and set-up 14 Input from tributaries Input from upstream Q 0, C 0 Q 1, C 1 C d, q d L Input from diffuse and point sources Basins with available WQ instream data 15

16 TDS [mg/l] TDS [mg/l] river discharge [m3/s] river discharge [m3/s] 1/28/2009 River discharge July Danube river length [km] river discharge measured grdc measured others Vistula river length [km] river discharge measured grdc measured others TDS concentration Danube river length [km] TDS concentration - January measured calculated TDS concentration - July river length [km] measured calculated 16

17 TDS [mg/l] loading acc. [t/month] loading acc. [t/month] TDS [mg/l] 1/28/2009 TDS loading Danube TDS loading - January river length [km] monthly loading accumulated (t/month) measured monthly loading, t/month TDS loading - July river length [km] monthly loading accumulated (t/month) measured monthly loading, t/month TDS concentration Danube Time series upstream year-month 600 measured calculated downstream year-month measured calculated 17

18 BOD5 [mg/l] BOD5 [mg/l] 1/28/2009 BOD concentration Danube July river length [km] measured Existing Diffuse calculated river length [km] measured Diffuse x 5 calculated A quick look at Future Scenarios for Points Sources Markets First The dominant characteristic of this scenario is the tremendous faith placed in the market to deliver not only economic advances, but also social and environmental improvements. Security First The dominant characteristic of this scenario is the emphasis on security, which consistently overshadows other values. It is a fairly narrow notion of security, implying increased limits on how people live, both physically and psychologically. 18

19 What do we change Point Sources % population connected to a sewerage network The % of the different types of treatment that are used Changes from current conditions as identified by a Pan European Panel of Experts for different parts of the region Typically connectivity will go up, but a different rates for the various scenarios Treatment level will go up except for Security First in which case it sometimes goes down from Tertiary to Secondary BOD pollution loading (2050, SCENES - Markets First) Legend increasing BOD load no change decreasing BOD load Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, October

20 BOD pollution loading (2050, SCENES - Security First) Legend increasing BOD load no change decreasing BOD load Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, October 2008 Summary WorldQual development First steps of the WorldQual model development were successfull. WorldQual is able to reproduce the right levels of TDS for selected river basins. More work for BOD! First Scenario runs have been completed for Point Sources Next concrete steps Connection of the BOD decay rate to water temperature. Distribution of annual data input into montly values. Implemention of the next substances: Total coliforms 20