Run-of-River Hydroelectric Resource Assessment for BC

Transcription

1 Run-of-River Hydroelectric Resource Assessment for BC Small Hydro Engagement Session November 19, 2007 *PRELIMINARY RESULTS* Please note that the results presented here are considered draft results only.

2 Outline Kerr Wood Leidal Team Project Objectives Key Assumptions Methodology Power Calculation Screening Cost Estimating Social / Environmental Results Conclusions Questions & Answers

3 Kerr Wood Leidal Ron Monk, M.Eng., P.Eng. Project Manager Stefan Joyce, P.Eng. Project Engineer - Hydrotechnical Mike Homenuke, EIT Project Engineer - GIS

4 Project Objectives Develop an inventory of run-of-river (ROR) hydroelectrical potential for all BC with GIS tools developed by KWL Develop approximate cost estimates for potential ROR sites.

5 Transmission/Distribution System

6 Key Assumptions Water Shed Atlas definition of Stream Reach (460,000 stream reaches for BC) Penstock lengths are 500 to 5,000m in 500m increments Run-of-river analysis (no storage) Sites downstream of major reservoirs not included Considers sites upstream of reservoirs Not constrained by capacity of existing power lines

7 Key Assumptions Fortis BC & other non-bc Hydro service area not included in assessment Fisheries flow assumed 15% of the mean annual flow (MAF) Northern Transmission Line to Bob Quinn area assumed to be developed

8 Methodology - Power Calculation Power Potential for each reach of the stream Power = γqhη γ = 9810 N/m 3 Q = flow (m 3 /s) H = head (m) η = efficiency (assumed 85% & shut off at 20% of design) Q is estimated by multiplying area by mean annual unit runoff H is elevation drop derived from the digital terrain model

9 Methodology - Site Screening Sites screen out if: Developed or being developed Salmon Parks Terrain (e.g. ice, too high) Low flow (<0.1 m 3 /s) 200 m 3 /s maximum flow Streams originating outside BC

10 Methodology - Hydrology Regional hydrology analysis included: Statistical analysis of Water Survey of Canada (WSC) data Used GIS capabilities to distribute statistics to proposed sites Used flow duration curves to estimate: Average annual energy total quantity of energy that could be generated annually on average for the entire period of record Firm energy total quantity of energy that could be generated during the lowest flow water year (October to September) on record Dependable capacity power that can be generated 85% of the time in January and December

11 Normal Annual Runoff Isolines and Surface

12 WSC Gauge Locations and Hydrologic Zones

13 Methodology - Social/Environmental Construction jobs estimated based on capital cost Permanent jobs based on size of project Hectares impacted (land environmental) based on estimated right-of-way (ROW) areas for penstocks, access roads and power lines

14 Methodology - Cost Estimating Physical characteristics and site location were used to estimate development costs Completed using: Conventional cost estimating RETScreen (by NRCan) modelling GIS capabilities Cost data based on actual projects and KWL s professional experience Unit energy costs based on average energy production and annual and capital costs Assumed a 40 year amortization period, with a real discount of 6% (also 8% for comparison) Each site was treated in isolation of others (i.e. no clusters)

15 Methodology - Cost Estimating Development Costs Regional factors and remoteness Penstock (based on length, diameter and head) Powerhouse Intake and Civil (based on flow, head and power) Generation Equipment (based on head and power) Switchyard (based on power and voltage) Power line (based on voltage, length and terrain) Access Road (based on length and terrain) Engineering, Environmental & Other (% of capital cost) Annual cost Estimated O & M cost (% of development cost) Water rental and taxes (power)

16 Estimated Cost Map for Roads

17 Estimated Cost Map for 25 kv Power Line

18 Estimated Cost Map for 69 kv Power Line

19 Cost Estimating - Site Categories The remoteness of a site greatly influences the cost of the project for especially items such as: Access roads & power lines Camp and transportation Mobilization and demobilization The costs estimates included factors based on site remoteness by site categories as follows: Site A: < 50 km radius from a major town or city centre Site B: < 200 km radius Site C: < 400 km radius Site D: > 400 km radius A major town or city centre defined as > 25k people Fort St. John treated as a major town

20 Costs Breakdown by Component

21 Results Overview Identified over 8,000 potential sites with a total of: Over 12,000 MW of potential capacity Approx. 500 MW of dependable capacity Over 50,000 GWh annual energy Over 38,000 GWh annual firm energy

22 Map of Hydro Potential in BC

23 Results by Cost Bundle

24 Results by Region Totals

25 Results by Region <$100/MWh

26 Discussion on Unit Energy Cost Unit energy cost is greatly influenced by the remoteness of the site: Access and power line costs ~50% of total in remote areas Access and power line costs ~25% of total near larger centres Unit energy costs could be reduced if areas were developed in clusters Unit energy costs could be reduced if new transmission lines or roads were constructed in advance of development

27 Questions & Answers