PHILIPPINES IS AT RISK TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Transcription

1 RISK-BASED ADAPTATION TOWARDS CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE ENGR. NOEL ANTONIO V. GAERLAN Commissioner Climate Change Commission 1 PHILIPPINES IS AT RISK TO CLIMATE CHANGE 2 1

2 464 lives lost 185,004 residences destroyed 1,268 lives lost 51,144 residences destroyed 6,300+ lives lost 1,140,332 residences destroyed LOSSES DAMAGES DISRUPTION TYPHOON ONDOY (2009) TYPHOON SENDONG (2011) TYPHOON YOLANDA (2013) B 500+ dead (debris flow) Pablo (2012) 35.5B 6,000+ dead Yolanda (2013) 1B 465 dead Ondoy (2009) 15B 97 dead Pedring (2011) 27.3B 465 dead (landslide) Pepeng (2009) 13.5B 644 dead Frank (2008) 4 2

3 Climate Change Change in mean and/or the variability of global temperature Persists for an extended period, decades or longer Source: IPCC AR5 5 Tropical cyclones that entered PAR from

4 7 Damage caused by Pablo was placed at P36,949,230, so far, including P7,565,044,810 in infrastructure, P26,526,663, in agriculture, and P2,857,522,703 in private properties. On the other hand, it said the death toll remained at 1,067, with 2,666 injured and 834 still missing. The NDRRMC also said Pablo had affected 711,682 families or 6,243,998 people in 3,064 villages in 318 towns and 40 cities in 34 provinces. Of these, 3,011 families or 13,940 people are staying in 87 evacuation centers. 8 4

5 Vinta made landfall in the country twice as a severe tropical storm first in Cateel, Davao Oriental early Friday, December 22, 2017 then in Balabac, Palawan late Saturday, December 23, Vinta had struck right after Tropical Storm Urduja (Kai-tak), which battered Eastern Visayas. Urduja left more than 50 people dead and around P1 billion in agricultural damage SOURCE: ABS-CBN News, 21 July

6 Habagat (Southwest Monsoon), Aug 2012 Illegal logging. Agusan del Sur, June 2012 Solid waste problem, Manila 17/08/2018 DISASTER RISKS FROM NATURAL HAZARDS: THE CASE OF THE PHILIPPINES The Philippines is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world; also one of the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Changing patterns in risk factors, including the environment, require hastened, systematic anticipatory climate change adaptation & disaster risk reduction. Despite many gains, significant gaps in C/D/ENRM efforts remain, especially in the areas of policy, tools, financing & competencies. 11 CLIMATE CHANGE COMMISSION The lead policy-making body of the government tasked to coordinate, monitor and evaluate government programs and ensure mainstreaming of climate change in the national, local and sectoral plans towards a climate-resilient and climate-smart Philippines. 12 6

7 RA 9729: CLIMATE CHANGE ACT OF 2009 All LGUs must craft their own local Climate Change Action Plan (LCCAP) 13 NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLAN Food Security Water Sufficiency Ecosystem and Environmental Stability Human Security Climate Smart Industries and Services Sustainable Energy Knowledge and Capacity Development Enhanced adaptive capacity of communities, resilience of natural ecosystems, and sustainability of built environment to climate change Successful transition towards climate-smart development LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLAN 14 7

8 RISK-BASED ADAPTATION IS THE KEY TO TRANSFORMATION 17 KEY CONCEPTS 18 8

9 VULNERABILITY is Weakness 19 EXPOSURE elements at risk such as population, assets, structures, economic activities and environmental resources which are located in areas exposed to potential impacts of climate change and damaging hazard events 20 9

10 HAZARD is an object, material, situation with inherent dangerous properties that can pose a threat to life, health, property and the environment around it 21 is the probability that a hazard will materialize into a consequence of a defined magnitude 22 10

11 23 DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (DRR) DISASTER RISK REDUCTION is the concept and practice of reducing disaster risks

12 DRR focuses on extreme events, the damage they cause, and short-term response. These extreme events often are conceptualized and defined as aberrant, isolated moments outside the norm, and the appropriate government response should to be bring the environment and social life in the affected zone "back to normal" as soon as possible 25 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION (CCA) ADAPTATION refers to the changes in processes, practices, and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change

13 SYNERGIES Simplification of the burden of programming for development assistance Minimising duplication of effort and redundancies Reducing potential conflicts in policy development Making efficient use of scarce resources Increasing recognition, especially at community level, that both intervention converges 27 So what do we do now? 28 13

14 29 WHAT ARE THE IMPERATIVES? Strong scientific basis needed for appropriate response actions. Enhanced capacities to design & implement adaptation / disaster risk reduction/ ENR management options & climate change mitigation actions in the context of national development. Enhanced capacities to monitor changes in impact parameters & adjust responses accordingly

15 THE EMERGING APPROACH: PDP Chapter 20 Ensuring Ecological Integrity, Clean and Healthy Develop, maintain, and ensure the accessibility of climate and geospatial information and services completing the coverage and ensuring access to large scale probabilistic hazard maps conducting nation-wide geo-referenced mapping of exposed elements developing risk estimation models to determine value of potential loss and damages for different scenarios 31 Section 2. Declaration of Policy REPUBLIC ACT (d) Adopt a disaster risk reduction and management approach that is holistic, comprehensive, integrated, and proactive in lessening the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of disasters including climate change, and promote the involvement and participation of all sectors and all stakeholders concerned, at all levels, especially the local community (e) Develop, promote, and implement a comprehensive National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan (NDRRMP) that aims to strengthen the capacity of the national government and the local government units (LGUs), together with partner stakeholders, to build the disaster resilience of communities, and to institutionalize arrangements and measures for reducing disaster risks, including projected climate risks, and enhancing disaster preparedness and response capabilities at all levels; 32 15

16 REPUBLIC ACT Section 3. Definition of Terms (j) "Disaster Preparedness" - Preparedness is based on a sound analysis of disaster risk and good linkages with early warning systems, and includes such activities as contingency planning, stockpiling of equipment and supplies, the development of arrangements for coordination, evacuation and public information, and associated training and field exercises. These must be supported by formal institutional, legal and budgetary capacities. (q) "Early Warning System" -... A people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four (4) key elements: knowledge of the risks; monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that warning systems need to span all steps from hazard detection to community response. 33 Section 3. Definition of Terms REPUBLIC ACT (ii) "Risk Assessment" - a methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that together could potentially harm exposed people, property, services, livelihood and the environment on which they depend. Risk assessments with associated risk mapping include: a review of the technical characteristics of hazards such as their location, intensity, frequency and probability; the analysis of exposure and vulnerability including the physical, social, health, economic and environmental dimensions; and the evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative coping capacities in respect to likely risk scenarios

17 IPCC Assessment Report 5 (Summary for Policy Makers) SPM.3.1. Foundations of decision-making about climate change Effective decision-making to limit climate change and its effects can be informed by a wide range of analytical approaches for evaluating expected risks and benefits, recognizing the importance of governance, ethical dimensions, equity, value judgments, economic assessments and diverse perceptions and responses to risk and uncertainty. 35 WHAT WOULD THIS ENTAIL? 1.) Characterizing the multi-hazards natural- meteorological/ geological; anthropogenic- pollution, depletion, degradation) Understanding the danger 2.) Estimating the risks (probability of the impacts from the hazards, including the costs) / conducting vulnerability (risk) & adaptation assessment Quantifying the magnitude 36 17

18 3.) Mainstreaming the results into national, sub-national and local planning, programming & regulatory processes Disaster/climate proofing ; 4.) Monitoring results & adjusting plans, programs & implementation processes according to monitored impacts. 5.) Managing knowledge generated for continuous changes & innovations on CC/DRM/ENR responses on the ground. 37 RISK MANAGEMENT ACTION RISK AVOIDANCE relocation proper land use zoning HIGH RISK RISK MITIGATION contingency planning early warning systems re-engineering / retrofitting ADDRESSING RESIDUAL RISK risk transfer sharing mechanisms insurance LOW RISK 18

19 How do we manage risk under uncertainty? 40 19

20 Where we are now??? Climate-VULNERABLE Province, Municipality & City Sustain Losses, Damages and Disruptions (LDD) 41 Where we are now? What could we be? Climate-VULNERABLE Province, Municipality & City Sustain Losses, Damages and Disruptions (LDD) 42 20

21 Where we are now? What we could be? Climate-VULNERABLE Province, Municipality & City Climate- SMART Province, Municipality, City, Province, Region Sustain Losses, Damages and Disruptions (LDD) Anticipate Potential LDD (PLDD) Reduced PLDD (ability to anticipate and implement adaptation measures) Where we are now? What we could be? Climate-VULNERABLE Province, Municipality & City Would we want to get there? Climate- SMART Province, Municipality, City, Province, Region Sustain Losses, Damages and Disruptions (LDD) Anticipate Potential LDD (PLDD) Reduced PLDD (ability to anticipate and implement adaptation measures)

22 Where we are now? What we could be? Climate-VULNERABLE Province, Municipality & City How can we TRANSFORM Climate- SMART Province, Municipality, City, Province, Region Sustain Losses, Damages and Disruptions (LDD) Anticipate Potential LDD (PLDD) Reduced PLDD (ability to anticipate and implement adaptation measures) Need for an End-to-End support system to facilitate Transformation 46 22

23 Climate-VULNERABLE Province, Municipality & City TRANSFORMATION Climate- SMART Province, Municipality, City, Province, Region 1. SCIENCE-BASED INFORMATION Need for an End-to-End support system to facilitate Transformation 47 Climate-VULNERABLE Province, Municipality & City TRANSFORMATION Climate- SMART Province, Municipality, City, Province, Region 1. SCIENCE-BASED INFORMATION 2. WELL-ADJUSTED PLANS & INVESTMENT PROGRAMS Need for an End-to-End support system to facilitate Transformation 48 23

24 Climate-VULNERABLE Province, Municipality & City TRANSFORMATION Climate- SMART Province, Municipality, City, Province, Region 1. SCIENCE-BASED INFORMATION 2. WELL-ADJUSTED PLANS & INVESTMENT PROGRAMS 3. APPROPRIATE ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS Need for an End-to-End support system to facilitate Transformation 49 Transformation 1. SCIENCE-BASED DATA 2. WELL-ADJUSTED PLANS & PROGRAMS 3. APPROPRIATE ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL Safety Business Continuity CLIMATE PROJECTIONS ENVI ECON SOCIAL HAZARD EXPOSURE BASEMAPS P L D D CDRA LCCAP CP CDP CLUP LDIP CLIMATE-SMART PLANS AND INVESTMENT PROGRAMS CLIMATE- SMART ADAPTATION MEASURES Ecological Integrity Effective and efficient delivery of public services Well functioning support services to facilitate economic growth to support better quality of life Science, Technology and Innovations

25 Science, Technology, Innovation Solutions for Resiliency Sensors Doppler LiDAR advancements in PH S&T infrastructure now allow for better monitoring, information gathering, and the use of decision support systems. Hazard maps Satellite 51 GEOSPATIAL ANALYTICS NATIONAL PLATFORM (GANaP) Insert GANaP pictures 52 25

26 FLOOD HAZARD 5-yr RCP FLOOD HAZARD 25-yr RCP

27 While humans will always be impacted by disasters to some degree, no matter what we do, preparedness and planning will reduce risks and levels of impact. It is not enough anymore to say that we can adjust to occurrences when they happen. Climate change is having an amplifying effect on disasters - meaning they are happening more frequently and their intensity appears to be strengthening. -This is an adaptation of a quote from a survivor of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. 55 Thank you Unit 510, West Insula, 135 West Avenue cor EDSA, Quezon City (02) gaerlann.ccc@gmail.com 27