WRITTEN EVIDENCE FROM THE CLIMATE CHANGE BILL TEAM. Factual Briefing Document - December 2008 Climate Change (Scotland) Bill

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1 WRITTEN EVIDENCE FROM THE CLIMATE CHANGE BILL TEAM Emissins reductin targets (Sectins 1 44) Overall aim f the Bill Factual Briefing Dcument - December 2008 Climate Change (Sctland) Bill T reduce Kyt Prtcl greenhuse gas emissins by 80% by The emissins reductins targets in the Bill relate t Kyt Prtcl greenhuse gases, carbn dixide, methane, nitrus xide, hydrflurcarbns, perflurcarbns and sulphur hexafluride, the latter three being described as the F-Gases. Public Cnsultatin Between 29 January and 23 April 2008 the Scttish Gvernment ran a public cnsultatin n its prpsals fr a Scttish Climate Change Bill. The cnsultatin primarily addressed the subjects cvered in Parts 1 t 4 f the Bill. A ttal f 21,046 respnses were received. The majrity f respndents welcmed the cnsultatin, the cmmitment and intentin t intrduce legislatin r establish a framewrk, and/r the leadership shwn by Sctland. Further infrmatin abut the cnsultatin, including a detailed reprt f the analysis f the respnses, is available n the Scttish Gvernment website frm the fllwing address: Change/16327/Climate-Change-Bill/SCCBCnsultatin Stage 2 The Scttish Gvernment des nt anticipate making significant amendments at Stage 2 t the prvisins cntained in Parts 1 t 4 f the Climate Change (Sctland) Bill. Part 1 Emissins Reductin Targets The Bill places a duty n the Scttish Ministers t reduce the net Scttish emissins accunt by 50% by 2030 and 80% by The net Scttish emissins accunt cmprises all Scttish greenhuse gas emissins and remvals (i.e. carbn sinks such as frestry etc.) plus r minus any carbn units used r traded. The Bill requires Ministers t set annual emissins reductin targets. Annual targets will be set in batches, the first fr 13 years then fr five years thereafter: , , and and s n until , which will nly cver three years. With the exceptin f the first batch, annual targets must be set at least 12 years in advance. Ministers must seek advice frm the relevant bdy (the Cmmittee n Climate Change r Scttish equivalent) befre setting any annual targets. The Bill permits Scttish Ministers t designate a share f the emissins frm internatinal aviatin and internatinal shipping as being attributable t Sctland. Scttish Ministers have cmmitted t including Sctland s share f internatinal aviatin and internatinal shipping emissins and an rder will be laid in the Scttish Parliament in time fr these emissins t be included in the first batch f annual targets.

2 Part 2 Advisry Functins The Scttish Ministers have cmmitted t using the Cmmittee n Climate Change, established under the UK Climate Change Act 2008, t prvide expert advice and independent scrutiny regarding Sctland s climate change targets. This situatin will be reviewed and if it is cncluded that a dedicated Scttish bdy wuld prvide advice and scrutiny mre suited t Sctland s particular circumstances, the prvisins enable equivalent pwers t be cnferred upn an existing Scttish public bdy r fr a Scttish Cmmittee n Climate Change t be established. Part 3 Reprting Duties The intentin is that the Scttish Ministers must reprt regularly t the Scttish Parliament n Sctland s emissins, and n the prgress being made twards the emissins reductin targets set in the Bill. The majrity f reprting duties are cntained in Part 3 f the Bill but tw requirements are cntained in Parts 1 and 5 respectively. These additinal reprting duties are described here fr ease f reference. The reprting requirements are as fllws: Annual reprting duty (Sectins 28 and 29): the Scttish Ministers will be placed under a duty annually t lay a reprt befre the Parliament setting ut specific infrmatin abut the net Scttish emissins accunt fr the year in questin. It is these figures which will determine whether r nt the relevant annual target has been met. If the annual emissins target has been exceeded, the reprt shuld als explain why. Reprt n prpsals and plices fr meeting annual targets (Sectin 30): as sn as reasnably practicable after setting any set f annual emissins targets, the Scttish Ministers will be required t lay a reprt befre the Scttish Parliament setting ut prpsals and plicies fr meeting the current and future annual emissins targets, up t and including the annual targets just set. In practice, this reprt will require t be made at least nce every five years. Reprt n prpsals and plicies t cmpensate fr excess emissins (Sectin 31): where Scttish emissins exceed an emissins target, Scttish Ministers shuld als lay a reprt n the prpsals and plicies by which they will cmpensate fr the excess emissins. Requirement t seek scrutiny f relevant bdy (Sectin 8): each year, fllwing the annual statement n emissins, Scttish Ministers will be required t seek the views f the relevant bdy (the UK CCC) n prgress twards achievement f the annual targets that have been set, the mid-pint 2030 target and the 2050 target. Ministers will be required t lay a respnse in the Scttish Parliament t the pints made in the reprt by the advisry bdy. Final statements fr 2030 and 2050 (Sectins 32 and 33): Scttish Ministers will als lay a final statement setting ut whether the 2030 and 2050 emissins reductin targets have been met and, if nt, why nt. These reprts will be distinct fr the annual reprts in respect f 2030 and 2050 which will fcus n the actin in these tw calendar years as ppsed t the lng term targets. Reprts n prpsals and plicies fr adaptatin t climate change (Sectin 45): Scttish Ministers must lay a prgramme befre the Scttish Parliament setting ut their bjectives in relatin t adaptatin t climate change, prpsals and plicies fr meeting these bjectives and the timescales within which they will be intrduced. These prgrammes shuld respnd t the risks psed by climate change identified in each UK-wide risk assessment prepared in accrdance with the sectin 56 the UK Climate Change Act. In practice, the UK risk assessment will be published every five years and the Scttish Ministers respnse made as sn as practicable thereafter.

3 Prvisin f further infrmatin t the Scttish Parliament Sectin 34 f the Bill requires that, where the Scttish Ministers lay certain reprts befre the Scttish Parliament they must as sn as reasnably practicable thereafter, and in s far as reasnably practicable (i.e. the Parliament agrees t it), make a statement t the Parliament relating t the reprt. These are: Reprt n annual target; Reprt n prpsals and plices fr meeting annual targets; Reprt n prpsals and plicies t cmpensate fr excess emissins; Reprt n interim 2030 target; and Reprt n 2050 target. Sectin 34 additinally requires that where the Scttish Ministers lay a reprt n the annual target, as sn as reasnably practicable thereafter, and in s far as reasnably practicable, they must meet with the Cnveners f the Cmmittees f the Scttish Parliament. Part 4 Duties f Public Bdies Relating t Climate Change Scttish Ministers are cmmitted t wrking in partnership with the public sectr in reducing the target greenhuse gas emissins which affect climate change. The prvisins in Part 4 f the Bill are nly intended fr use if emissins reductins becme harder and mre expensive t deliver and it is cncluded that the Scttish Ministers have t use statutry measures t ensure cnsistent and fair cntributins t delivery acrss the public sectr. Therefre the Bill cntains an enabling pwer (Sectin 36) which allws Scttish Ministers t create secndary legislatin t impse public sectr duties, t take actin n climate change. Scttish Ministers are required t carry ut apprpriate cnsultatin befre creating such climate change duties If duties are impsed, Scttish Ministers recgnise the need t wrk with public bdies t help deliver these duties. Sectin 37 prvides pwers t issue statutry guidance in relatin t these climate change duties. If such duties are impsed, it will be imprtant t mnitr cmpliance. Sectin 38 f the Bill gives Ministers the pwer t require reprting n prgress and Sectin 39 allws Scttish Ministers t appint a mnitring bdy t mnitr the carrying ut f any climate change duties placed n public sectr bdies under the Bill. Climate Change (Sctland) Bill Variatin f permitted times fr making muirburn (Sectin 46) Summary f Bill prvisins This prvisin prvides an enabling pwer fr the Scttish Ministers t lay Orders t vary the permitted dates fr undertaking muirburn where they cnsider it necessary r expedient t d s in relatin t climate change. In Sctland, there are discernible changes in the climate and in seasnal weather patterns. These climatic changes have impacted n the ability t undertake muirburn and have reduced the frequency f suitable burning days. As a result, the ability t use muirburn has been negatively affected. Muirburn is an imprtant land management technique which assists new grwth n rugh grassland and mrland managed fr livestck, game and wildlife; and assists in the management f lder vegetatin which can act as a surce f fuel fr wildfires. The Bill prvisin aims t prvide flexibility t enable it t cntinue t be used.

4 Implementatin f any variatin in the permitted dates will require Ministers t lay an Order in Parliament which will entail a Regulatry Impact Assessment. There is n expectatin that the current muirburn seasn wuld need t be changed immediately. Public Cnsultatin A cnsultatin n the prpsal that Ministers shuld have a pwer t vary the permitted dates fr muirburn was launched n 25 August and ended n 17 Nvember Analysis f the cnsultatin is currently underway and the cnsultatin respnses will be available t view n the Scttish Gvernment web page by the end f December The cnsultatin analysis reprt will be issued in January Climate Change (Sctland) Bill Pwer t mdify functins f Frestry Cmmissiners (Sectin 47) Summary f Bill prvisins These prvisins will enable Frestry Cmmissin Sctland t play a greater rle in tackling climate change. They will allw Scttish Ministers (by rder) t mdify the functins f the Frestry Cmmissiners in r as regards Sctland. Such an rder may als allw the Frestry Cmmissiners t delegate their functins t ther bdies. Public Cnsultatin A cnsultatin ( Climate Change and the Natinal Frest Estate ) was launched n 4 Nvember 2008 and the cnsultatin will clse n 27 January This dcument can be fund at: angebill.pdf This cnsultatin seeks views n permitting: Frestry Cmmissin Sctland t enter int jint ventures fr the purpses f participating in renewable energy prgrammes; Scttish Ministers t lease land fr frestry purpses and the Frestry Cmmissin Sctland t grant cutting rights ver this frest; Scttish Ministers the ptin f transferring wnership f leased land t a nt-fr prfit trust and funds t be used t prmte wdland creatin t help mitigate greenhuse gas emissins. Ministers are seeking a reprt n the results frm the cnsultatin exercise, and an assciated ptins review, by the end f February. The results f this will be reprted t the Parliament as sn as pssible. Stage 2 The need t amend the prvisins at Stage 2 will depend n decisins taken fllwing the utcme f the cnsultatin exercise.

5 Climate Change (Sctland) Bill Prmtin f energy efficiency (Sectins 48-49) Summary f Bill prvisins These prvisins are aiming t imprve the energy efficiency f dmestic, business and public sectrs in Sctland. These prvisins will require Scttish Ministers t develp and publish an Energy Efficiency Actin plan within ne year f the prvisin being enacted; t reprt n the implementatin f the actin annually, laying this in parliament; and t review this plan at least every three years. Althugh primary legislatin is nt required t prepare the plan, setting this in statute demnstrates the cmmitment f Scttish Ministers t imprving energy efficiency acrss Sctland. The actin plan will set ut all the actin being taken acrss Gvernment t imprve energy efficiency in Sctland. Public Cnsultatin The previus administratin cnsulted n a draft Energy Efficiency and Micrgeneratin Strategy fr Sctland between 13 March and 11 June Links t this and the assciated dcuments are listed belw: Energy Efficiency and Micrgeneratin: Achieving a Lw Carbn Future: A Strategy fr Sctland draft cnsultatin (13 March 2007) Energy Efficiency and Micrgeneratin Strategy fr Sctland: SEA Envirnmental Reprt (30 March 2007) Energy Efficiency and Micrgeneratin - Achieving a lw carbn future - A Strategy fr Sctland: Cnsultatin Respnses (9 August 2007) On 4 June 2008 the Scttish Gvernment published a cnsultatin analysis reprt summarising the issues raised by respndents. As the cnsultatin had been initiated under the previus administratin, the Scttish Gvernment published a separate respnse t the issues raised during the cnsultatin alng side the analysis reprt. Links t these dcuments are: Energy Efficiency and Micrgeneratin: Achieving a Lw Carbn Future: A Strategy fr Sctland: Cnsultatin Analysis Reprt (4 June 2008) Energy Efficiency and Micrgeneratin: Achieving a Lw Carbn Future: A Strategy fr Sctland: The Scttish Gvernment Respnse (4 June 2008) Stage 2 Officials are currently in discussin with the Steering Grup fr Sarah Byack s Members Bill n Energy Efficiency and Micrgeneratin and separately the Green Party ver pssible measures which culd be included in either the Climate Change Bill r the Energy Efficiency Actin Plan.

6 There is the pssibility that these discussins may result in the need fr Amendments at Stage 2. Climate Change (Sctland) Bill Energy perfrmance f nn-dmestic buildings (Sectin 50) Summary f Bill prvisins The aim f these prvisins is t imprve the energy perfrmance f existing nn-dmestic buildings which will raise the cntributin that the existing nn-dmestic stck can make t mitigating climate change. Buildings accunt fr ver 40% f emissins and there is scpe t further reduce these levels. Why are they necessary? The prvisins are required t make regulatins prviding fr the assessment f the energy perfrmance f nn-dmestic buildings and the emissins f greenhuse gases prduced r assciated with such buildings. The regulatins fr the assessment f existing nn-dmestic buildings culd include: type f nn-dmestic buildings cvered; persns wh are required t btain assessments; time perids fr carrying ut assessments; prcedures and methdlgies that must apply; persns wh can carry ut such assessments; certificates issued fllwing assessment; enfrcement authrities; and keeping f recrds and enfrcement and ffences. Public Cnsultatin A public cnsultatin Actin n Climate Change: Prpsals fr imprving the energy perfrmance f existing nn-dmestic buildings was launched n 2 September 2008 and clsed n 24 Nvember The cnsultatin dcument can be accessed at A ttal f 70 respnses have been received and analysis f the respnses is n-ging and will be cmpleted by the end f January Tpics cvered in the cnsultatin include: Extending the scpe f energy perfrmance certificates int Assessment f Carbn and Energy Perfrmance (ACEP) t take accunt f peratinal ratings as well as asset ratings and als embdied energy/carbn when a rbust methdlgy is available t address the issue f histric and traditinal buildings. This includes varying the lifespan f such assessments/certificates; Requiring wners r their delegated persns t btain ACEPs (even thugh they are nt selling r renting ut their buildings); Requiring wners f nn-dmestic buildings t frmulate actin plans fr building wrk arising frm the advice n their ACEPs and encuraging them t implement their actin plans; Develping apprpriate standards fr such building wrk e.g. energy efficient lighting, rf space insulatin r sub-metering; and Empwering lcal authrities, r similar public bdies, t check ACEPs. Scttish Climate Change Bill Prmtin f Renewable Heat (Sectin 51) Summary f Bill prvisins This prvisin will enable Scttish Ministers t take steps t prmte the use f heat prduced frm renewable surces.

7 This is needed t build a cmmercially viable renewable heat industry in Sctland in supprt f the Scttish Gvernment 2020 renewable energy target (11% f heat demand t cme frm renewable surces). This will help t reduce carbn emissins. It is recgnised that Scttish Ministers already have pwers t prmte renewable heat heat is nt mentined in the Sctland Act, therefre is devlved by missin. Hwever setting this in statute (e.g. by putting an bligatin n Scttish Ministers t develp and publish a Renewable Heat Actin Plan) shws the imprtance and cmmitment by Scttish Ministers t increase the uptake f heat frm renewable surces. Public Cnsultatin In 2006, the previus administratin asked a sub grup f the Frum fr Renewable Energy Develpment in Sctland (FREDS) t identify and develp recmmendatins fr the key cmpnents f a Scttish Renewable Heat Strategy. The grup published a reprt in February The link t the reprt can be fund at: Sctland s Renewable Heat Strategy: Recmmendatins t Scttish Ministers Renewable Heat Grup (RHG) Reprt On the 6 Octber 2008 the Scttish Gvernment published a framewrk dcument seeking cmments n the develpment and deplyment f renewable energy in Sctland. The cnsultatin clsed n 1 December The dcument cntained a sectin n renewable heat (sectin 6) which included a prpsed Actin Plan fr Renewable Heat in respnse t the reprt frm FREDS. be fund at: The link t the reprt can Making Sctland a Leader in Green Energy draft framewrk fr the develpment and deplyment f renewables in Sctland The respnses t the cnsultatin are currently being cnsidered. Hwever there appears t be brad supprt fr the need t prmte renewable heat and fr the target f 11%. In additin ther views expressed cmmented n the need t raise awareness by shwcasing gd practice, targeting ff-gas grid areas and the need t prduce a renewable heat rute map. All cmments received will help infrm the cmpletin f the Actin Plan Stage 2 The respnses t the cnsultatin are currently being cnsidered. It is pssible that Scttish Ministers may seek t include an amendment at Stage 2 t require the prductin f a Renewable Heat Actin Plan fr Sctland. The Actin plan culd include a wide range f actins such as: Rute map Infrmatin prvisin Links with waste heat Fuel pverty Planning Skills and Training Additinal infrmatin Steps are being taken t intrduce a UK wide financial mechanism t help supprt the take-up f renewable heat. The UK Energy Act includes enabling pwers t design such a mechanism. Renewable heat is a mixture f devlved and reserved prvisins (while Scttish Ministers have pwers t prmte renewable heat, any regulatry incentive administered by Ofgem will cut acrss reserved functins).

8 Scttish Ministers have agreed with UK Gvernment that Westminster can legislate n their behalf in terms f a renewable heat incentive (RHI) but that Scttish Ministers will be fully cnsulted. There is brad supprt frm stakehlders f this apprach. Any future Renewable Heat Actin Plan will fcus n actins that are within Scttish Ministers devlved pwers and will enhance any RHI intrduced at a future date. Scttish Climate Change Bill Waste reductin and recycling (Sectins 52-61) Summary f Bill prvisins Scttish Ministers may, thrugh regulatins, intrduce new bligatins fr prviding: Waste preventin and management plans Infrmatin n waste Facilities fr depsit f recyclable waste Prcurement f recyclate Targets fr reductin f packaging Depsit and return schemes Charges fr supply f carrier bags These pwers are being taken t reduce the impact f waste management and, misuse f resurces have n climate change. It is intended that regulatins (by affirmative prcedure) wuld be used t set ut detailed requirements, fr example: Cntents f a waste plan; Wh shuld give what infrmatin n waste; Wh shuld prvide facilities t recycle, what shuld thse facilities be and fr what types f wastes; What types f recyclate shuld be prcured and the quantities; What targets wuld apply t packaging placed n the market, the types f packaging and n whm the targets wuld apply; Hw a depsit and return scheme wuld functin, in relatin t which materials supplied by whm; and Charges fr carrier bags - what charges, fr which bags and the applicatin f the charge revenue. Public Cnsultatin A cnsultatin n Ptential Legislative Measures t Implement Zer Waste was launched n 28 July 2008 and clsed n 6 Octber Publicatin f the respnses and assessment, by Calednian Envirnment Centre is expected shrtly. The cnsultatin respnses indicated general supprt fr the principal f taking measures in the Bill t implement zer waste. The level f supprt varied accrding t specific prvisin (and, indeed, between taking pwers and actually exercising them). The least supprt was fr charges fr carrier bags. Stage 2 Amendments at Stage 2 are nly likely if there is a need t refine prvisins in the Bill in the light f discussins at Stage 1.

9 TECHNICAL NOTE: Climate Change (Sctland) Bill: Greenhuse gas (GHG) Emissins, Annual Reductins and Targets Purpse The purpse f this Technical Nte is t describe in mre detail the trajectry prescribed in the Climate Change (Sctland) Bill fr reducing Scttish emissins f Kyt Prtcl greenhuse gases, in particular the annual percentage rate f reductin necessary t achieve the targets. The apprach described includes estimated emissins frm internatinal aviatin and shipping. The target greenhuse gases fr the Bill are carbn dixide, methane, nitrus xide, hydrflurcarbns, perflurcarbns and sulphur hexafluride, the latter three being described as the F-Gases. GHG Data Figures fr Scttish greenhuse gas emissins at surce are currently published apprximately twenty mnths after the end f the calender year t which they refer - 5 mnths after publicatin f the final UK inventry. The latest published figures, the 2006 GHG emissins, were published in September Disaggregated figures fr internatinal aviatin and shipping emissins, fr each f the fur cuntries f the UK, have recently becme available and the Scttish figures are included in this analysis 2. Baselines 1990 is the base year fr emissins f carbn dixide, methane and nitrus xide, and 1995 is the base year fr emissins f flurinated cmpunds (F-Gases) in accrdance with Article 3.8 f the Kyt Prtcl. Fr ease f reference, the figures shwn as 1990 in this dcument cmbine 1990 figures fr carbn dixide, methane and nitrus xide with the 1995 figures fr the F-Gases. The first year fr which an annual target will be set under the Bill, nce enacted, is Emissins Reductins The emissins reductin framewrk in the Climate Change (Sctland) Bill is based n the fllwing pillars: The annual target fr the year 2010 must be an amunt which is less than the estimated net Scttish emissins accunt fr The emissins reductin targets fr each year in the perid must be an amunt which is less than the target amunt fr the previus year. In the perid the annual percentage rate f reductin in greenhuse gas emissins will be driven by targets which must be at least 3% lwer than the target fr the previus year. Greenhuse gas emissins in 2030 must be at least 50% belw emissins reprted fr Greenhuse gas emissins in 2050 must be 80% belw emissins reprted fr Jacksn, J. et al, Greenhuse Gas Inventries fr England, Sctland, Wales and Nrthern Ireland: , Reprt t the Department fr Envirnment, Fd and Rural Affairs, The Scttish Gvernment, The Welsh Assembly Gvernment and The Nrthern Ireland Department f Envirnment, AEA, September 2008, available frm: 2 Thmas, J. and Thistlethwaite, G., Internatinal Aviatin and Shipping Emissins, , Reprt t the Department fr Envirnment, Fd and Rural Affairs, The Scttish Gvernment, The Welsh Assembly Gvernment and The Nrthern Ireland Department f Envirnment, AEA,, available frm:

10 Fr infrmatin, n the basis f the 2006 GHG inventry (including internatinal aviatin and shipping emissins) Scttish emissins were 70.1 megatnnes f carbn dixide equivalent (Mt CO 2 e) f GHG emissins relevant t the 1990 baseline (1995 fr F-gases). Emissins in 2009 It is necessary t make certain assumptins abut the starting pint fr the new statutry emissins reductins trajectries because the statutry regime is being put in place befre the actual emissin levels fr 2009 will be knwn. The first assumptin is that greenhuse gas emissins in 2009 will fllw a similar trend t , taking accunt f the EU Emissins Trading Scheme fr emissins in 2005 and On this basis the average annual rate f reductin in GHG emissins between 1990 and 2006 was 1.23%. While we have infrmatin n UK allcatins under the EU Emissins Trading Scheme fr the perid , there is as yet n agreed methdlgy n hw t apprtin a share f the allcatins fr Sctland s carbn budget. Reductins t 2019 Assuming the 2009 emissins have fallen at an average rate f reductin f 1.23% since 1990, emissins in 2009 wuld equate t sme 55.4 Mt CO 2 e. If the average annual rate f reductin in the perid ranges between 1.23% % (as described in the example scenaris belw), n the basis f these assumptins, emissins in 2019 wuld be estimated between Mt CO 2 e. This represents a reductin f 30-40% belw the 1990 value. Befre setting the levels fr annual targets, Scttish Ministers will be infrmed by the advice f the UK Cmmittee n Climate Change. This advice is expected t detail the ptimal, mst cst effective emissins reductins ptins t pursue and may define a different trajectry t the range utlined in the paragraph abve. Fr illustrative purpses a number f emissins reductins scenaris are described belw and detailed in Table 1. The reductin rates relate t the perid Scenari % average annual reductin in greenhuse gas emissins Annual rate f reductin is in line with the average rate in the perid Scenari % average annual reductin in greenhuse gas emissins Emissins reductin required t achieve a 34% reductin in emissins in 2020 against 1990 baseline this target relates t the emissins reductins required by the interim carbn budget set ut by the Cmmittee n Climate Change in its inaugural reprt Building a lw carbn ecnmy, published n 1 December Scenari % average annual reductin in greenhuse gas emissins Scenari % average annual reductin in greenhuse gas emissins Scenari % average annual reductin in greenhuse gas emissins Scenari % average annual reductin in greenhuse gas emissins Emissins reductin required t achieve a 42% reductin in emissins in 2020 against 1990 baseline this target relates t the emissins reductins required by the intended carbn budget set ut by the Cmmittee n Climate Change in its inaugural reprt Building a lw carbn ecnmy, published n 1 December 2008.

11 Reductins frm 2020 t 2030 Frm the estimated emissins level f Mt CO 2 e in 2019, which wuld be the psitin if emissins cntinue t reduce at 1.23% per year, in line with the average rate in the perid , emissins wuld need t have an average annual rate f reductin frm 2020 f 3.95% in rder t achieve an 80% reductin by On such a trajectry, emissins in 2030 wuld be apprximately 55% less than in The Bill requires that emissins in 2030 be reduced by at least 50% cmpared t the amunt in T achieve a reductin f exactly 50% in 2030 frm a psitin f Mt CO 2 e emissins in 2019, the annual rate f reductin f emissins in the perid 2020 t 2030 wuld have t average 2.99%. The Bill sets a minimum annual reductin f 3% frm Reductins frm 2030 t 2050 Having achieved the 2030 target f 50% reductin in emissins, relevant t the 1990 level f emissins, the average annual rate f reductin required t achieve the 2050 target (an 80% reductin frm 1990 emissins) wuld be 4.5%. Chart 1 shws the pattern f reductins required t achieve the targets assuming that emissins in 2009 in line with the rate f reductin frm and that annual percentage reductins are cnstant in each perid and as described abve. Table 1 prvides estimates f the key figures fr the 6 scenaris.

12 Chart 1 Mt CO 2 equivalent 80 Greenhuse gas emissins t includes internatinal aviatin & shipping & takes accunt f trading in the EU Emissin Trading Scheme in 2005 and Assumes that emissins in 2009 are n the same trajectry as and this cntinues t annual rate f reductin 1.23% Cnstant average annual rate f reductin f 2.99% required t achieve 2030 target Cnstant average annual rate f reductin f 4.48% required t achieve 2050 target Interim Target 50% reductin frm Target 80% reductin frm

13 Table 1 Emissins reductins necessary t achieve 50% reductin target in 2030, and 80% reductin target in 2050; taking accunt f trading in the EU Emissin Trading Scheme in 2005 and 2006 Scenaris cnsidered: emissins in 2009 are in line with the rate f reductin between 1990 and 2006 (1.23%); between 2009 and 2019 rate f reductin ranges between 1.23% and 2.75% Scenaris 1 (1) 2 (2) (2) Assume average annual % 1.23% 1.49% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2.75% reductin Baseline emissins (Mt CO 2 e) Emissins in 2005 (Mt CO 2 e) Emissins in 2006 (Mt CO 2 e) Assume 2009 in line with trend in perid (Mt CO 2 e) Emissins in 2019 (Mt CO 2 e) Annual rate f reductin in 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% perid required t meet minimum 50% reductin target by 2030 (minimum f 3%) (3) Emissins in 2020 (Mt CO 2 e) Percentage change % -34.0% -34.1% -37.4% -40.5% -42.0% Resulting emissins in (Mt CO 2 e) (3) Percentage change % -51.3% -51.4% -53.8% -56.1% -57.2% Annual rate f reductin in 4.47% 4.35% 4.34% 4.10% 3.85% 3.73% perid required t meet 80% reductin target by 2050 (minimum f 3%) (3) 2050 target is 80% reductin frm 1990 baseline (Mt CO 2 e) Surces: 2006 GHG Inventry fr England, Sctland, Wales and Nrthern Ireland, Internatinal Aviatin and Shipping Emissins, EU Emissin Trading Scheme allcatins and emissins fr Sctland (1) This scenari shws that if emissins in 2009 have fallen in line with the average annual rate f reductin in the perid (1.23%) and this annual rate f reductin cntinues in the perid , fllwed by a 3% annual rate f reductin in the perid this wuld result in the 2030 target f 50% f 1990 emissins (i.e Mt CO 2 e) being achieved and wuld necessitate an annual rate f reductin f 4.47% in the perid in rder t achieve the 2050 target. (2) These scenaris give the annual rate f reductin required in rder t achieve emissin reductins f 34% and 42% in 2020 against a 1990 baseline. The figures f 34% and 42% relate respectively t the emissins reductins required by the Interim and Intended carbn budgets set ut by the Cmmittee n Climate Change in its inaugural reprt Building a lw-carbn ecnmy - the UK's cntributin t tackling climate change, December 2008, available frm: (3) Frm 2020, the Bill requires minimum annual reductins f 3% cmpared with the target fr the previus year. In these scenaris, such reductins lead t emissins in 2030 belw 50% f 1990 baseline emissins (35.06 Mt CO 2 e), and the subsequent annual rate f reductin in the perid required t achieve the 2050 will differ frm the 4.48% annual rate f reductin if 2030 emissins were exactly 50% f 1990 emissins. 13