Learning from Recent Modeling Projects. Shanon Phillips- OCC Steve Patterson- BioXDesign

Transcription

1 Learning frm Recent Mdeling Prjects Shann Phillips- OCC Steve Pattersn- BiXDesign OCLWA April 5-6, 2017

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3 Are we Insane? Hw many majr watersheds/waterbdies in OK have been mdeled just ONE time? When an issue is identified with a water mdel, hw many times is it the same issue identified with a previusly cmpleted mdel?

4 Purpse f Presentatin T summarize cmments/ideas frm reginal water management experts in rder t explre pssible actin t imprve the effectiveness and utility f water mdels This presentatin is NOT intended t: Cmplain abut any persn/agency/ther entity s perfrmance/experience in mdeling Thrw ut the baby with the bathwater Imply that gd wrk and/r useful results have nt been accmplished thrugh the use f water quality r water quantity mdels Slve the wrld s prblems r necessarily identify new ideas that haven t been heard frm befre Just a summary s we can further discuss; just t be, we re nt trying t be

5 Methd: Cnducted phne r in-persn interviews f the fllwing peple and asked them the same set f basic questins. Mnty Prter and Chris Adams Oklahma Water Resurces Bard Je Lng, David Akakp, and Sjung Lim- OK Dept. f Envirnmental Quality Darrell Twnsend- Grand River Dam Authrity Brian Haggard- Arkansas Water Resurces Center and University f Arkansas Thad Sctt- Baylr University Greg Klxin- Oklahma Cnservatin Cmmissin Randy Wrden- Central Oklahma Master Cnservancy District Summarized the cmmn themes as well as the many different insights and suggestins abut hw we culd wrk tgether t imprve mdel input, utput and usage

6 Benefits f Mdels Estimating system respnses Evaluating management scenaris Standards changes Cnservatin practices Manipulatin f hydrlgy Other things humans can cntrl Filling in fr missing data Ttal Maximum Daily Lads

7 Benefits f Mdels They re s SEXY!!!

8 Cmmn Issues: Is There Ever Enugh Data? Hw much is nt enugh? T shrt a time perid (i.e. nly ne year) Limited hydrlgic cnditins/hydrlgic data Limited spatial cverage f data Limited chemical and hydrlgic data fr watersheds f Oklahma lakes Assessment prgrams dn t typically cllect all types f data required fr water mdels Frequently lack sufficient data t d independent calibratin and validatin f mdels May lack data t fully evaluate water quality standards impairment Wh knew that temperature f inflw was ne f the mst critical factrs t predict strength f stratificatin in a SE OK lake? Smetimes available data is nt used in a mdel Aren t we using a mdel t substitute fr data we dn t have???

9 Cmmn Issues: Knwledge Mst peple are nt trained t r d nt actively mdel Many mdelers are experts in IT but nt in eclgy Mdels are ften run by experts unfamiliar with the waterbdy Use f a water quality standards in mdel is nt necessarily the equivalent f use f a standard fr assessment purpses

10 Cmmn Issues: Cmmunicatin Many diverse grups with different backgrunds, skills, and gals generally invlved in mdeling Smetimes we dn t speak the same language r allw sufficient pprtunities fr everyne t give input Cnsiderable wrk ften happens in the lag time between cmmunicatin amng mdeler and peple wh will use the mdel Sensitive issues related t pssible regulatin can serve t limit cmmunicatin Frequently, we nly have the utput f a mdel t evaluate; the mst cmplicated mdels are t expensive fr average entities t maintain and therefre we can t replicate mdel utput urselves

11 Cmmn Issues: Chse the Right Mdel/Parameters/Data Nt always certain that we use the best mdel Often must rely n experts t make that chice. Experts may have bias and may als nt really understand the cnditins in the waterbdy Tend t favr mst cmplex mdels that we may lack sufficient data fr Nt always certain that we fcus n the mst apprpriate endpint(s) fr the mdel Nitrate in lake mdels can be an effective guide fr hw well the mdel is wrking

12 Cmmn Issues: Resurces Trying t d t much with nt enugh Mney: many mdels were limited in scpe because f available resurces, leading t a pr prduct Time- we typically dn t allw enugh time: Fr cmmunicatin Fr the changes in management resulting frm the mdel t wrk Peple: we dn t have the right stakehlders and experts at the table thrughut enugh f the prcess Fllw-up: in many cases, nce the mdel is dne, there isn t much dne t verify that it was right r t cllect missing pieces necessary t imprve it.

13 Hw Can We Imprve?? Is it even pssible?

14 Pssible Slutins Mre cmmunicatin frm the beginning, maybe ging as far back as the wrkplan Priritize watersheds r parts f watersheds fr intensive fcus Frce the mdelers t talk t yu frequently alng the way Invlve EVERYONE- even the scary peple The mre partners, the mre ptential resurces yu have Peple invlved frm the beginning are generally less inclined t pick apart the end prduct if they feel they had a rle in designing it Need mdelers, eclgists, hydrlgists, water users, water managers Cllect/Use mre (apprpriate) data Simpler mdels

15 Pssible Slutins, cnt. What abut smething ther than a mdel??? In the Wister Watershed, we re investing abut $40,000 t mnitr all HUC 12s in the watershed fr ne year and determine where it makes the mst sense t fcus future effrts Lets spend mre mney n fixing the prblem and less mney n cming up with a number that defines the prblem- maybe delay the regulatry apprach Watershed Plan in Lieu f TMDL- lets make this a reasnable alternative in places where it makes sense.

16 Pssible Slutins, cnt. D sme fllw-up Keep wrking in the same place t evaluate whether what yu re ding is wrking. Expect that slutins take a while t happen Cllect mre data- spend mney n thse things and yu might be further alng than if yu had a millin dllar mdel.

17 Final Thughts Interviewee thught: Science needs t drive these things but science in a vacuum desn t fulfill all the gals. We need t have plitics and input frm ther surces t have a wrkable slutin. Interviewer thught: Everyne we interviewed wanted the same thing- better mdels (r use f) t prtect water resurces- nne f the slutins recmmended are impssible if we supprt each ther and wrk tgether

18 Questins???