Association of Energy Service Professionals. Midwest Chapter, December 12, 2017 Minnesota Municipal Utility Association

Transcription

1 Association of Energy Service Professionals Midwest Chapter, December 12, 2017 Minnesota Municipal Utility Association

2 10% Solar Goal Statutory Goals and Standards 10% solar goal by 2030 (statewide) 216B.1691 Renewable Energy Objectives. Subd. 2f. (c) It is an energy goal of the state of Minnesota that, by 2030, ten percent of the retail electric sales in Minnesota be generated by solar energy. Credit: NREL Photo exchange Approximately 6 Gigawatts of solar capacity by 2030 Credit: Prairie Restorations Credit: Denver Intnl Airport

3 Over-Arching Goal: Collaborating to find least-risk, best-value strategies for Minnesota to achieve its solar energy goals 3

4 MN Solar Pathways is a $2M, 3-year award from DOE Solar Energy Technologies Officie 4

5 Technical Committee A stakeholder Technical Committee will guide the technical analysis and the development of the Minnesota Solar Pathways model. The Committee is the primary stakeholder oversight for the project, serving as the lens through which the results of stakeholder input is reviewed, and the means by which technical recommendations guide scenario and case study decisions. 5

6 Technical Committee Julie Whitted, Boston Scientific Erik Birkeland, City of Duluth Jim Giebel, City of Saint Paul Allen Gleckner, Fresh Energy Lloyd Nelson, Lake Region Electric Coop Cameran Bailey, Metropolitan Council Brandon Heath, MISO Annie Levenson-Falk, MN Citizens Utility Board Stacy Miller, MN Dept. of Commerce Jennifer Peterson, Minnesota Power David Shaffer, MnSEIA Nathan Jensen, Otter Tail Power Matt Boys, RES Group Dru Larson, Rochester Public Utilities Holly Lahd, Target Corporation Patrick Dalton, Xcel Energy 6

7 Project Staffing Core Team Stacy Miller, MN Dept. of Commerce Josh Quinnell, Center for Energy and Environment Joel Haskard, Clean Energy Resource Teams Morgan Putnam, Clean Power Research Brian Ross, Great Plains Institute Technical Team Morgan Putnam, Clean Power Research Nadav Enbar, Electric Power Research Institute Ran Fu, National Renewable Energy Lab Chad Abbey, Smarter Grid Solutions Josh Quinnell, Center for Energy and Environment 7

8 Key Project Goals 8

9 Project Deliverables Solar Potential Analysis Evaluate how to optimally combine solar and wind with storage, load-shifting, and curtailment to integrate increasing amounts of renewable generation. Enhanced Hosting Capacity Analysis Examine how new technologies can increase the grid s ability to host solar energy in Minnesota. Interconnection Streamlining Assessment Evaluate existing practices and assess opportunities to streamline interconnection Solar Deployment Strategy Develop a cost/benefit framework for evaluating different solar deployment scenarios from the perspective of multiple stakeholders: utilities, solar customers, and non-solar customers. 9

10 Project Timeline 2017 Solar Potential Analysis YR 1 Evaluate the technical and economic potential for solar over the next years modeling various load profiles for renewables 2018 Interconnection Work YR 1 Quantify what can be done to reach envisioned interconnection experience, both statewide and at the individual utility scale 2019 Enhanced Hosting Capacity YR 1-2 Better understand how new technologies can increase the grid s ability to host solar energy and other renewables in Minnesota 2020 Solar Deployment Strategy YR 2-3 Studying policy and rate design to reach goals; cost/benefit analyses for utility, solar customers and non-solar customers

11 Year One (plus) Deliverables Technical Team Design, execution, and alpha result of the Solar Potential Analysis (SPA) model (Q4 2017) Completion of an interconnection streamlining analysis for multiple utilities (Q4 2017) Completion of a hosting capacity analysis (Q1 2018) Outreach and Communications Stakeholder outreach on the varied perceptions of value, opportunities, and constraints associated with different solar deployment strategies and for different stakeholder cohorts. Communications and messaging research on solar deployment, goals, and project results 11

12 Solar Potential Analysis (SPA) Scenario-based analysis that examines the potential for key technologies to overcome the variability and intermittency challenges encountered with increasing solar penetration Key technologies include: demand side management; energy storage; geographic dispersion; synergy with wind; and smart curtailment Seeks to determine the lowest levelized cost of electricity for dependable solar power production requirements at increasing levels of solar penetration 12

13 Prototype SPA Modeling Tool Production Objective Scenarios 13

14 Overcoming Solar Variability (1 of 2) 14

15 Overcoming Solar Variability (2 of 2) 15

16 1.5% of Energy from Solar A. NO PV Base Generation Dispatchable Generation B. PV at 10% Capacity Penetration PV Generation Excess PV Time (14 summer days) 16

17 ~10% of Energy from Solar A. NO PV Base Generation Dispatchable Generation C. PV at 80% Capacity Penetration PV Generation Excess PV Time (14 summer days) 17

18 Proposed Must Run Resources Utility Plant Plant Type Capacity (MW) Min Gen. Cap. (MW) MP Boswell 3 & 4 Coal OTP Big Stone Coal Xcel Monticello Nuclear Xcel Prairie Island Nuclear Xcel/ SMMUA Sherco 3 Coal Xcel Allen S. King Coal Total Represents ~20% of generation capacity within the service territories considered 18

19 Ramp Rate Assumptions Ramp rate per minute as a % of generation capacity (NREL ERGIS) 19

20 Categories of Solar Deployment Residential solar, primarily single-family homes, generally less than 10 KW, interconnected behind the meter; Commercial solar, on rooftops or grounds of businesses, interconnected behind the meter, from small commercial (less than 100 KW) to large commercial installations of 1 MW or more; Community solar or shared solar deployment, where subscribers are retail electric consumers; Utility scale deployment, primarily interconnected on the transmission grid, operating in the wholesale market, owned by or contracted to utilities. Photo credit: Evan Frost, MPR News 20

21 The SPA will model two hypothetical deployment scenarios to achieve a 10% by 2030 solar goal:

22 SPA Scenarios 8 scenarios for each of the two timeframes (2025 and 2050) 22

23 Solar Potential Analysis: Investigating complimentary strategies and technologies to lower the cost of solar energy deployment Baseline technologies: Wind Energy Geographic Dispersion Smart Curtailment Energy Storage Active Load Management (Load Shifting)

24 What is Load-shifting? Using free storage to move load so that it accommodates the solar energy production profile Solar Production Solar Production Load Shifted Load

25 Load Shifting in the SPA Residential: Domestic hot water (DHW) Heating and cooling loads (HVAC) Electric Vehicles (EV) Commercial Loads Cooling loads (AC) Methodology for Calculating Potential Market Penetration The size of the controlled fleet Opportunity Characteristics of devices that make load Constraints The physical limits & customer requirements

26 Load Shifting Scenarios: Summary 2025 Low High Units Load/Unit (MWh) Units HVAC 290, , DHW 140, , EV 16, , Load/Unit (MWh) 2050 Low High Units Load/Unit (MWh) Units Load/Unit (MWh) HVAC 790, ,600, DHW 600, ,800, EV 92, ,300,

27 DHW Power (MW) DHW Capacity (MWh) Example Domestic Hot Water Market: Existing electric DHW + conversion from gas due to strategic electrification Opportunity: Resistance water heaters + conversion to heat pump water heaters Constraints: Water heaters have fixed capacity; consumers have fixed hot water demands Hour of day Non-adjust MW Max Rate MW Min Capacity MWh Max Capacity MWh

28 Number of Electric Vehicles in MN in 2050 MN Transportation By the Numbers US DOT: EV growth projections indicate EVs can become >90% of MN s vehicle fleet by 2050: EIA: 29% Compound Annual Growth Rate Bloomberg: 30% CAGR MN Historical: 24% CAGR

29 Electric Vehicles Solar with electric vehicle charging potentially provides a bigger storage opportunity than behind-the-meter batteries

30 November est Gateway 14, to 2017 Solar Conference Solar Potential Analysis Next Steps Modeling is currently underway MN Solar Pathways Technical Committee will review results in early January Tentative date for public report is March

31 PV Interconnection GAP Analysis & Enhanced Hosting Capacity Analysis Conduct a PV interconnection GAP analysis to determine how to improve the process for PV and other DERs Illustrate the value of advanced distribution control and quantify the benefits of smart inverters, storage, and intelligent curtailment 31

32 Next Phase, 2018, Solar Deployment Strategy (SDS) The SDS will be shaped by a stakeholder engagement process. The SDS will be designed to be a replicable and living analysis to inform choices between different solar deployment strategies without seeking to set policy. The SDS will calculate the economic impacts and market incentives created by different solar portfolios and rate structures and the consequent ability of utilities, ratepayers, institutions, communities and the State of Minnesota to realize their solar priorities or goals 32

33 Envisioned SDS Modeling Tool The Technical Committee will synthesize input from the larger set of stakeholders to define the scenarios studied and certain methods of the calculation 33

34 Stakeholder Engagement Opportunities, Constraints to Solar Deployment 1. Utilities 2. Solar industry 3. Residential customers 4. Business customers 5. Advocacy organizations 6. Governments (local) 7. State agencies 8. Economic development entities 34

35 The SPA will model two hypothetical deployment scenarios to achieve a 10% by 2030 solar goal:

36 Opportunities/Constraints Framework Value Proposition differences Opportunity/ Constraint Types Jurisdictional differences 36

37 Categories of Solar Deployment Residential solar, primarily single-family homes, generally less than 10 KW, interconnected behind the meter; Commercial solar, on rooftops or grounds of businesses, interconnected behind the meter, from small commercial (less than 100 KW) to large commercial installations of 1 MW or more; Community solar or shared solar deployment, where subscribers are retail electric consumers; Utility scale deployment, primarily interconnected on the transmission grid, operating in the wholesale market, owned by or contracted to utilities. Photo credit: Evan Frost, MPR News 37

38 Opportunities/Constraints Framework Elements of the stakeholder value proposition. What stakeholders value about solar defines what is an opportunity or a constraint. Type of opportunity/constraint. Opportunities/constraints grouped into three types: 1. market-based, 2. policy-based (federal, state, local) and 3. regulation-based (state, utility, or local level). Jurisdictional differences. Opportunities/constraints change by jurisdiction (service territories and government authority), and by geographic markets areas. 38

39 Elements of Value Proposition Cohort Description Value Proposition Elements Residential Consumers Business Consumers Utilities Residential homeowners, renters, that consumer electricity. Small and large businesses that consume electricity. Investor-owned, generation & transmission co-ops and municipals, distribution coops and municipals, ISO/RTOs 1. Economic benefit, 2. Environmental benefit 3. Consumer choice/ independence 1. Lower energy costs 2. Predictable energy costs 3. Environmental benefit 4. Resilience 1. Lower operating costs 2. Predictable 3. Environmental benefit 4. Customer preferences 39

40 Elements of Value Proposition Cohort Description Value Proposition Elements Solar industry Advocacy Organizations Businesses directly operating in solar deployment, manufacturing, financing operations, project development, engineering and procurement NGOs actively and routinely involved in solar policy development and regulatory dockets, generally not including trade organizations. 1. Job creation 2. Expanding market/business 3. Market diversity 4. Environmental benefit 1. Carbon reduction 2. Other environ benefits 3. Consumer choice 4. Lower utility/energy costs 40

41 Your Turn! AESP 2017