Quantitative Evaluation of Sustainable Development in the SIDS

Transcription

1 4 th International Conference on National Evaluation Capacities Quantitative Evaluation of Sustainable Development in the SIDS The Case of the English Speaking Caribbean By Edwin St Catherine, Director of Statistics CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE OF SAINT LUCIA Small Island Developing States Challenges and Innovations in Evaluating Sustainable Development Wednesday 28 th October 2015

2 Introduction and background The impact of changing climatic conditions on SIDS and the Caribbean in particular in the last decade has been increasing in intensity. The Caribbean has seen this manifested in several events, namely: Grenada 2004 Ivan Dean 2007 Jamaica and Martinique, Hurricane Dean 2007 Hurricane Tomas - Haiti and Saint Lucia (2010) Christmas Eve Trough St Vincent and Saint Lucia (2013) Tropical Storm Erika Dominica 2015 Typically these events require data to assess and value the impact of the Disaster on economic and social conditions in the country To assist in efforts at relocation To plan for and build resilience to future disasters Limited, not fully thought out way of documenting the impacts

3 Introduction and background Weather related events have in many cases huge short term and in many cases long term effects Increasing impacts of droughts and the issue of water scarcity The worst drought in five years is creeping across the Caribbean in From Puerto Rico to Cuba to St Lucia, crops are withering, reservoirs are drying up and cattle are dying while forecasters worry that the situation could only grow worse in the coming months The Caribbean s last severe drought was in The current one could grow worse if the hurricane season ending in November produces scant rainfall and the region enters the dry season with parched reservoirs, said Cedric Van Meerbeeck, a climatologist with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology.Associated Press Puerto Rico The challenge of measurement of the changes in bio-diversity in countries of the region by improving the systems for collecting basic environmental statistics Measuring/Monitoring the extent of households and persons Adaptation to Climate Change Knowledge/Attitudes and Behaviors of our populations allows for the improved impact of strategic policy making Measurement of the use of natural environmental assets in the process of climate change adaptation is also of major impotance

4 Introduction and background What has been the response of the statistical community in the Caribbean so far: Census 2001 Inclusion of a question on waste disposal Census 2010 and Planning for Census 2020 Inclusion of questions on waste disposal Inclusion of water availability questions Number of times per week on average in the past 12 months you have water in the tap (Trinidad and Tobago Census 2011) Inclusion of questions on source of drinking water as water quality issues increase in prominence Inclusion of adaptation related questions actively being considered, purchase of solar panels Surveys of Living Conditions Module on shocks to economic and social life due to climate impacts Expenditures related to the repair of buildings Actions taken to build resilience by the population Increased collection of basic administrative environmental statistics particularly focused on human settlements but also assisting in informing the environment and sustainable development arm of the government in compiling State of the Environment Reports

5 Strategy and action plan Problem with social and environmental indicators: Many Indicators from Multiple Sources As communications instruments, one frequent criticism is that they lack what has made GDP a success: the powerful attraction of a single headline figure allowing simple comparisons of socio-economic performance over time or across countries (Stiglitz, Sen, Fitoussi, 2009) Report on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress we are urged to use a method that has this elegance for communication where necessary. Improvement of our methods of measuring an MPI Forster/Alkire Income poverty: important but doesn t proxy key indicators Economic Growth obscures weakness in the social fabric of society No single non-income proxy (harness multiple data sources) Income/expenditure is not a sufficient proxy for measuring multidimensional progress

6 Trinidad and Tobago -SLC Dimensions & Indicators Dimension Indicator Deprivation Cut-offs Weight Education Educational Attainment Level Persons in Households with All Persons at Primary School Level or Below who are 12 Years and over Connectivity No Access to the Internet Labour Decent Work Eight of the criteria specified for the attainment of decent working conditions was achieved. Health Household with Any Person in long term unemployment over the age of 29 years Household with Any Person between 15 and 29 who is unemployed Level of Health Insurance Coverage (Private/Free or subsidized) Children Living in Over- Crowded Housing Person is unemployed for six or more months out of the last 12 months Person is unemployed based on the national definition of unemployment Person is deprived if living in household where less than 80% of Individuals have health Insurance Coverage Person s Under 15 years living in household with 2.5 or more persons per bedroom 1/10 1/10 1/15 1/15 1/15 1/10 1/10 1 / 5 1 / 5 1 / 5

7 Trinidad and Tobago -SLC Dimensions & Indicators Dimen sion Indicator Deprivation Cut-offs Weight Living Standa rds Environ ment Preventive Security Measures Asset Ownership Adults Living in Over- Crowded Housing Household is fearful of crime and has employed less than three measures to combat it Ownership of less than 7 Assets Person s 15 years and over living in household with 2.5 or more persons per bedroom Type of Housing Persons Living in Poor Quality Housing Dwelling units appears to be in dis-repair Deprived water source Deprived in access to regular water supply Deprived in Toilet Facilities Deprived in Response to Climate Change Household with water piped into yard or worse Household where water supply is received less than 3 times a week Household with pit latrine or worse Household has not taken any action to mitigate the effect of climate change 1 / 5 1 / 5

8 Strategy and action plan Linking GDP to SEEA Conventional economic aggregates generated through national accounting, such as GDP, do not reflect the extent to which production and consumption activities may be using up environmental assets and limiting the capacity for these assets to generate ecosystem services in the future. - TEEB Guidance Manual for Countries (2013) Intensity work on System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA) Various SEEA accounts capture different types of information but one needs to understand how the information in these accounts link together into one integrated system of information.

9 Strategy and action plan Linking GDP to SEEA Given the data challenge this entails our strategy is to: Continue to develop the basic environmental statistics Focus on the most formal sectors (WATER and ENERGY) of the economy where data is most available and ensure that we develop Accounting systems for Physical flows of environmental assets Accounting systems for monetizing Environmental Assets linked to the National Gross Domestic Product Accounting Framework Environmental Activity Accounts & Subsystems, Applications and Extensions Continue to report as much as possible using this framework to bring to the attention of the Ministries of Finance the issues of the sustainable use of environmental resources since the impact on the GDP would be directly observed and monetized.

10 Strategy and action plan Greater use and mapping of Census and Survey Data Issue of the use of Population and Housing Census Data All countries are pursuing adaptation planning at national and local level through various agencies The censuses, together with the growth of other population data, provides an unparalleled opportunity to have detailed information on people s location, age and sex, education, migration patterns, housing and more - all information that is vital for adaptation efforts. More sophisticated Census Data allowing highly disaggregated analysis aligned to the geography of projected climate impacts and to the communities which is not sufficiently used

11 Strategy and action plan - Greater use and mapping of Census and Survey Data There is an imperative to correct minimal use of the social and demographic data gathered especially in the Census into components of vulnerability and adaptation planning The work of UNFPA on the greater use of tools which can be customized to generate standardized summary climate related statistics on small areas is very important and needs to be supported and developed UNFPA has published methods and case studies and generated demonstration projects for geospatial population analysis in the context of climate hazards (Malawi, Indonesia) These tools provide highly disaggregated population data by space and demographic characteristics This will help bridge to the broader, spatially informed and disaggregated Data Revolution for Sustainable Development Jamaica, Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago are pilot countries working with UNFPA in undertaking this project. Household Surveys, such as, MICS will assist in monitoring the impact of shocks on the health outcomes for children given current evidence Household surveys on Disaster Risk Reduction to inform credit granting facilities developed by the World Bank in Saint Lucia is a useful approach Oversampling more vulnerable areas and the conduct of structural assessments are useful approaches to planning for and mitigating future risk.