Minerals and metals for a low Carbon Future: the need for Climate Smart Mining

Transcription

1 Minerals and metals for a low Carbon Future: the need for Climate Smart Mining Kirsten Hund World Bank Energy and Extractives

2 Presentation outline Why a lowcarbon future will be more mineral intensive 2. What does this mean for resourcerich countries and producer companies 3. The need for climate smart mining 4. Way forward

3 Without metals there would simply be no low carbon future possible 3 One 3-MW turbine contains 335 tons of steel. 4.7 tons of copper. 1,200 tons of concrete (cement and aggregates) 3 tons of aluminum. 2 tons of rare earth elements. zinc molybdenum Source: (NW Mining Association)

4 Electric hybrid cars use twice as much copper as non-hybrid cars 4

5 The Growing Role of Minerals for a Low carbon future 5 Examines the implications of changing material requirements for the mining/metals industry as a result of low carbon energy future. How can resource rich developing countries best position themselves to take advantage of the evolving commodities market?

6 IEA s ETP 2016 Scenarios 6 6 degree scenario IEA s Energy Technology Perspective Scenarios For Electricity Installed Capacity 4 degree scenario 2 degree scenario Electricity Installed Capacity (GW) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Hydro (excl. pumped storage) Natural Gas Nuclear Solar Geothermal Coal Oil Wind Biomass Ocean Electricity Installed Capacity (GW) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Hydro (excl. pumped storage) Natural Gas Nuclear Solar Geothermal Coal Oil Wind Biomass Ocean Electricity Installed Capacity (GW) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Hydro (excl. pumped storage) Natural Gas Nuclear Solar Geothermal Coal Oil Wind Biomass Ocean Source: IEA ETP 2016

7 Energy Storage (split between liion, lead-acid, other) Solar Wind Technology Studied 7 Onshore Offshore Photovoltaics crystalline silicon Photovoltaics CdTe Photovoltaics CIGS PV amorphous silicon CSP Automotive Grid-scale Decentralise

8 Example: Change in metal demand from Solar PV (as percentage change from 6 degree scenario) 9 Source: WB Analysis Note: Values are derived from mean value of metal per MW demand

9 Example: Change in metal demand from Energy Battery Storage (as percentage change from 6 degree scenario) 11

10 2. Where will these resources come from? 12

11 Example: Mapping Critical metals: 1: Bauxite/ Aluminum 13 Bauxite Production and Reserves for 2015 (Thousand Metric Tons) Mine Production Reserves Developing Countries % of Bauxite Production represents 52%, without China, 30%. Developing Countries % of Bauxite Reserves represents 65%, without China 63%. AUSTRALIA 80,000 6,200,000 CHINA 60, ,000 MALAYSIA 21,200 40,000 INDIA 19, ,000 GUINEA 17,700 7,400,000 JAMAICA 10,700 2,000,000 GREECE 6, ,000 RUSSIA 6, ,000 KAZAKHSTAN 5, ,000 SURINAME 2, ,000 BRAZIL 2,000 2,600,000 GUYANA 1, ,000 VENEZUELA 1, ,000 VIETNAM 1,100 2,100,000 INDONESIA 1,000 1,000,000 USA N/A 20,000 OTHER COUNTRIES 8,500 2,400,000 TOTAL 274,000 28,000,000

12 Mapping Critical metals: 3: Lithium 15 Lithium Production and Reserves for 2015(Metric tons) Production Reserves AUSTRALIA 13,400 1,500,000 CHILE 11,700 7,500,000 ARGENTINA 3,800 2,000,000 CHINA 2,200 3,200,000 ZIMBABWE ,000 PORTUGAL ,000 BRAZIL ,000 USA N/A N/A TOTAL ~ 32,500 ~ 14,000,000 Developing countries % of lithium production 52%, without China 45% Developing countries % of lithium reserves 91%, without China 68%

13 3. Addressing the carbon footprint of the industry 16

14 Low-emission technologies: Innovation and efficiency New modes of extraction practices Energy and water efficiency Methane emission reduction opportunities Use of smart data Carbon Capture and Storage Mostly Industry-led: role for governments? 17

15 Integrated Landscape Management and planning - including infrastructure 20% of all GHG emissions come from Deforestation Grades diminish, deforestation increases Footprint of associated Infrastructure Spatial Planning/ resource Corridors Challenge: Requires a leading role from government and intergovernmental coordination 18

16 4. Conclusions: Towards a Climate Smart Mineral and Metals Industry? Meeting the Paris climate target will require a radical restructuring of energy supply and transmission systems globally; The clean energy shift will be significantly MORE material intensive This will probably open up new mining frontiers with new opportunities and risks Technology choices matter: Need for a flexible approach Footprint implications of the materiality of clean energy need to be factored into climate change and mineral development strategies of countries and companies Need for a multi stakeholder approach: Governments, industry, Mining and Metals Community, Climate Change/ Sustainable Development Community

17 21 Thank you! full report: