( * Home of Jacques Robidas- Manseau, my great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, grandfather, b Le Mans, France d.

Transcription

1 ( * Home of Jacques Robidas- Manseau, my great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, grandfather, b Le Mans, France d Quebec, Canada) *

2 Bioeconomy Policy Under Political Climate Change: Will Made in the USA Trump Cheap Fossil Fuels? Techno-Economic Outlook Paul F. Bryan Independent Consultant SF Bay Area, California July 24, 2017

3 Key Conclusions Biomass Conversion Economics will Diverge High-value substrates High-value products (BIO / chemical routes) Low-value substrates Low-value products (Thermochemical routes) Biomass Fuels will remain marginal without: Further technical development Monetization of GHG & other benefits Biomass High-Value Products: Will proceed at least gradually regardless Will be enabled by toolbox growth Will be greatly accelerated by monetization of GHG and other benefits on par with biofuels

4 BIO er Beware! I won t get into detailed TEA numbers these are conclusions based on doing, guiding, and assessing lots of them, though I ll be talking about scalable developments all sorts of strange things will happen in unusual or one-off situations I will not say much about bio-energy today. It has its place, but the unique opportunity to derive liquid fuels & materials from biomass will be my focus

5 Horses for Courses Possible Biomass Stuff Routes Sugars & Starches To fuels via biological (or chemical) conversion To non-fuel products via biological (or chemical) conversion Fats & Oils To fuels via chemical conversion To non-fuel Xproducts via chemical conversion LC Biomass To sugars + lignin Convert sugars to fuels Convert sugars to non-fuel products Burn lignin Upgrade lignin Whole biomass conversion To fuels To non-fuel products Nope Maybe Nope Maybe

6 Why so glum, sugarplum? In the long run, on a truly level playing field, sugars & starches will simply be too costly (and too valuable) to use as fuels The same will largely be true of fats & oils, with exceptions being lowquantity, low-quality, and remote feedstock sources With the entire value chain considered, the effective cost of LC sugars will never be as low as conventional sources, except... There will be some scope for LC sugars, but always limited by the market size and marginal economics of lignin derivatives Thermochemical conversion of whole LC biomass will in general produce mixtures too messy for isolation of high-value products The future lies in high-value products from sugars, starches, fats & oils, and in low-ghg fuels from LC biomass via thermochemical conversion

7 You Know the Drill Total Production Cost ($US/BBL) Transportation Fuel Supply Curve 2020 Prediction (Source: The Future of Alternative Transportation Fuels Booz & Co. Study (2008)) Conventional Oil Hvy Oil, GTL, CTL, Oil Shale Biofuels Where we are today = 87 million BPD ~ 2,000 billion gpa EtOH (give or take) Renewable Corn 80 Electricity Marginal (Shale?) Where we need to be very soon! Arctic, EOR & Deep Water Fossil 20 Middle East OPEC Other OPEC Other Conventional FSU Venez. Cane Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent per Day

8 More Hydrocarbons than you can Stick a Sheik at! The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone... and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil. -- Sheikh Zaki Yamani, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister 1975 Source: IEA Resources to Reserves 2005

9 The Long Good-BIO Biofuels require monetization of GHG and other societal & environmental benefits to achieve significant* market penetration ( * In the context of climate change, energy security, etc.) Bio-products also need this for their markets to grow rapidly; they will continue to grow otherwise, but slowly) Policy, investment, and R&D activity should be focused on the biomass production and conversion value chains most likely to be scalable and profitable in the long run, as described above.