The Current Situation of Renewable Energy in Latin America

Transcription

1 The 6th International Conference on Integration of Renewable and Distributed Energy Resources The Current Situation of Renewable Energy in Latin America Dr. Jorge M Huacuz Renewable Energy Unit Electrical Research Institute (IIE) Cuernavaca, Mexico jhuacuz@iie.org.mx

2 A glimpse at Latin America General Information Surface area 22, km 2 Number of countries 26 Total population 588 million Urban population 79% Official languages Spanish, Portuguese (Brazil) Installed electrical capacity 336 GW Electricity production (2011) 1,348 TWh Energy use 1,292 kg o.e./capita People w/o electricity 34 million CO 2 emissions 2.7 Tons/capita CO2 emissions in the World context (2011) Electricity Generation in the World context (2011)

3 The LATAM electricity matrix Hydro 30.70% Nat Gas 29.40% Oil Derivative 16.10% Coal 8.50% Biofuels & W 5.10% Nuclear 3.90% Geothermal 3.90% Imports 2.10% Wind & solar 0.22% Crude Oil 0.08% GWh/year Industry 44.80% Residential 25.30% Commercial 20.30% Other 4.70% Export 4.50% Transport 0.40% Source: IDB Energy Innovation Center, Latin America Electricity Matrix 2011 (GWh/year) Source: Yepez-García R.A., et al, Meeting the Electricity Supply/Demand Balance in Latin America & the Caribbean. ESMAP, The World Bank, 2010

4 Challenge: increasing per capita electricity use Per capita electricity use and total electricity production in Latin America are still relatively low Economic growth is pushing up electricity demand but capacity growth projections heavily rely on natural gas and big hydro Electricity Production in GWh LATAM generation capacity growth ICEPAC scenario Source: Yepez-García R.A., et al, Meeting the Electricity Supply/Demand Balance in Latin America & the Caribbean. ESMAP, The World Bank, 2010

5 Will renewables get a chance? Capacity expansion for electricity generation in Latin America is expected to grow about 600 GW by the year 2030 An investment close to 430 billion US$ will be required for capacity expansion Fossil energy use will reach 41% due to substantial reliance on natural gas However, the Latin American region could produce close to 80 PWh from renewable energy, corresponding to a peak capacity of about 34 TWh

6 Investment capital is flowing in US$ ~108 bn

7 Bright future for Photovoltaics World PV Attractiveness Chart 9/26 Latin American countries highly attractive for PV investment COUNTRY PV PROJECTS AMOUNT TOTAL GW Brazil Chile Mexico Source: 1 PV Magazine, PHOTOVOLTAIC PROJECT CATEGORY LATIN AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA Under construction 1 GW 22 MW Expected within 5 years 9 GW 1.5 GW Project portfolio 22 GW ---- Source: NPD Solarbuzz IHS Technology Regional PV Portfolios

8 Wind, on its way and growing COUNTRY INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) Brazil 3,461 Mexico 1,917 Chile 335 Argentina 218 Costa Rica 148 Nicaragua 146 Honduras 102 Dominican 85 Republic Uruguay 59 The 136 Caribbean Others 74 Total 6,681 Fraction of World Total: 2.1% Source: GWEC-Global Wind 2013 Report

9 Renewable energy targets Feed-in Tariff/ Premium payment Electric utility quota obligations/rps Net metering Tradable REC Tendering Heat obligation/ mandate Biofuels obligation/ mandate Capital subsidy or rebate Investment or production tax credit Tax reductions Energy production payment Public investment, loans or grants COUNTRY ENABLING REGULATORY POLICIES FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AND PUBLIC FINANCING Key Existing Revised New Argentina Barbados Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Grenada Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru St. Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Source: Own construction with data from REN21 Renewable Energy Global Status Report 2014

10 Concluding Remarks Given its abundant renewable energy resources, growing electricity demand and evolving enabling legal and regulatory framework, Latin America may become a major player in the arena of green power However, for this to happen in the near future, a number barriers have to be removed, including: The growing tendency of the regional electrical sectors to rely on natural gas The concerns of the electric utilities regarding the variability and intermittency of some renewable energy resources, notably wind and solar The set of subsidies applied to fossil fuels and to fossil-fueled electricity generation The limited number of regional analysis for the valuation of renewable energy as a motor for economic growth, job creation and development of new forms of the electricity business The hesitation of government officials to move swiftly towards a green economy

11 Electrical Research Institute Gracias... Thank you...