2015 Chatham County Hurricane Conference. Lori R. Dauelsberg, Mark A. Ehlen National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center

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1 NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 2015 Chatham County Hurricane Conference Lori R. Dauelsberg, Mark A. Ehlen National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center April 7, 2015

2 OCIA Overview OCIA assesses strategic risks to the Nation s critical infrastructure to inform risk management decisions by Federal, State, and local partners. Strategic Analysis Critical infrastructure consequence analysis and prioritization Includes operational and strategic analysis of incidents and emerging risks Supports interagency, intergovernmental, international, and private sector partners with risk and consequence analysis Infrastructure Prioritization Capability and Capacity Development Operational Analysis

3 OCIA-NISAC Enterprise OCIA oversees the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) program, which is comprised of analysts from OCIA, Los Alamos National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratory. NISAC conducts modeling, simulation, and analysis of the Nation's critical infrastructure. The purpose of the analysis is to assess potential critical infrastructure risk, vulnerabilities, dependencies, interdependencies, and potential consequences resulting from manmade deliberate or accidental or natural events. NISAC analysis supports Federal, State, and local stakeholders in developing or improving risk mitigation strategies and policy planning.

4 All Hazards NISAC provides crisis action analysis support for hurricanes, floods, ice storms, wildfires, and other natural disasters. NISAC Analysis Team uses the full range of capabilities to provide actionable information about population, economic, and infrastructure impacts, and resilience and recovery strategies. Natural Disasters Hurricane Drought Earthquake Flood Storm surge Ice storm Pandemic Wildfire Terrorism Events Biological Chemical Explosive Radiological Nuclear Physical assault Insider Cyber

5 NISAC Analyses Restoration Recovery Prioritization Supply Chain Analysis

6 Planning for Natural Disasters Short-term Informing first responders and leadership decision making Pre-positioning supplies and resources Understanding potential impacts to critical infrastructures Describing criticality of an event Long-term Exercises, including modeling hypothetical events Increasing maintenance programs Improving systems based upon risks Incorporating new technologies

7 Hurricane Scenario Analysis Sequence

8 Savannah Hurricane Scenario Category 3 hurricane diminishing to a Category 1 Loses strength as it passes through South Carolina and into North Carolina Modeling and simulation parameters: Maximum wind intensity: 120 miles per hour (mph) Forward speed: 11.5 mph Landfall: 31.2 ºN, 81.3 ºW (near Brunswick, GA) Radius of 50-knot winds: 144 statute miles Radius of 34-knot winds: 201 statute miles Hypothetical track and strength similar to Hurricane David in 1979 and similar in width to Hurricane Ivan in 2004

9 Savannah Projected Electric Power Outage Areas Projected outage areas are based on wind speed, wind direction, and orientation of transmission grid: Red area: 76 to 100% outage Orange area: 51 to 75% outage Yellow area: 26 to 50% outage Light green area: 11 to 25% outage Dark green area: <10%

10 Electric Power Restoration An estimated 1.7 million people live in areas where projected damage to the electric power system exceeds 75 percent Approximately 2.95 million people (about 1.34 million utility customers) will experience some level of electric power outage due to the scenario hurricane Approximately 95 percent of customers should have power restored in just over 16 days, with complete power restoration requiring up to 24 days

11 Electric Power Restoration

12 Storm Surge Projection Analysts use projected inundation areas as a basis for further sector and population analysis, as well as for restoration time estimates Storm Surge Marker, Tybee Island, GA, 2014 Source: L. Inkret

13 Storm Surge Impacts About 42,300 people live in areas projected to experience at least 2 feet of storm surge Surge (feet) Population ages 0 16 Population ages Population ages 65+ > 8 2,900 9,700 2, ,200 3, ,900 5,700 1, ,600 5,200 1, ,

14 Electric Power: Kraft Power Plant The Kraft Power Plant, located on the west bank of the Savannah River just north of Savannah in Port Wentworth is the only asset within the storm-surge inundation area The power plant contains three coal-fired steam-turbine generating units with a combined capacity of 200 MW, one natural gas-fired steam-turbine generating unit with a 115-MW capacity, and one natural gas-fired gas-turbine generating unit with a 17-MW capacity The loss of these units is unlikely to have a significant effect on the power grid because there is less demand in the aftermath of a storm. The substation just west of the power plant is not affected

15 Nuclear Power Plants 4 nuclear power plants located in the 26- to 75-percent electric power outage areas Edwin I Hatch, Johnson Corner, GA Vogtle in Girard, GA C. Summer in Monticello, SC H.B. Robinson in North Hartsville, SC Even though the plants would remain online, because nuclear power plants rely on offsite power provided by neighboring substations, an outage of the local substation that provides power for safety systems will impede operations If a utility takes a nuclear facility offline for this reason, it would likely keep it on hot standby, forestalling the need to complete the entire start-up process, which takes several days

16 Natural Gas There are no gas-processing plants in the projected electric power outage or storm-surge inundation areas According to available data, there are no compressor stations within the storm-surge inundation zones. Loss of compression would not stop the flow of pipeline gas, but it would likely reduce pipeline delivery capacity to downstream customers Natural gas deliveries would likely continue to electric power outage areas, including Savannah and Brunswick Due to interconnections in the subsector s infrastructure, the ability to deliver gas to customers outside the storm area would be impacted only minimally

17 Transportation Fuels Widespread regional disruptions are not expected, but shortages of transportation fuels are likely to occur locally along the coast, especially around Savannah and Brunswick, GA Drawing down inventory and transporting fuel from operating facilities in the region would enable partial mitigation of the local impacts

18 Food and Agriculture Forsyth Farmer s Market, Savannah Source: Forsyth Farmer s Market National-level impacts from this hurricane scenario are limited More than 12 million acres of crop and other vegetation production is at risk from storm-surge inundation and/or damaging winds in excess of 50 mph Significant local and regional impacts are possible to agricultural products (i. e., hay, grasses, and hog and poultry production) especially in Georgia and South Carolina Poultry production in GA and the Carolinas is at risk. Hog production in South Carolina will also be impacted

19 Financial Services Impacts to the Financial Services sector are unlikely 20 bank branches are located in areas projected to receive surge inundation of 2 feet or more. Many of these branches are part of large national banks The population in the directly affected areas will likely experience ATMs and an inability to process credit and debit card transactions Wells Fargo Branch, Savannah Credit: FlickrRiver

20 Chemical Sector No national-level impacts to commodity chemical supply chains are expected, but regional and specialty-chemical shortages are possible Most-severe disruptions to Chemical Sector activity are expected in Georgia and South Carolina, but Chemical Sector activity in the Southeast is relatively diffuse

21 Emergency Services Chatham County has the most 651 facilities within the 76- to 100- percent likelihood of electric power outage area Storm-surge inundation and the 76- to 100-percent electric power outage will likely result in increased requests for emergency responders Limited access to roads will cause logistical difficulties and increased response times for law enforcement, fire, and medical services responding to emergencies, possibly necessitating the use of aerial operations Facility Type Emergency Medical Responder Station Facilities in % Electric Power Outage Area Facilities in More Than 4 Feet of Surge 77 4 Fire Station Fire Station and Emergency Medical Response Station Law Enforcement Office Total Emergency Services Facilities 651 9

22 Healthcare 4 hospitals are within ½ mile of or within areas with 5 feet These hospitals have about 400 patients who will likely require evacuation Relocating these patients is likely to affect up to 24 hospitals in the surrounding area 2 nursing homes in 3 feet of storm surge Evacuated Hospitals

23 Communications Services No national impacts are expected Local access and transport areas that cover southeastern South Carolina and eastern Georgia are most at risk This impact represents a potential service area of over 680,000 households. Over 90 percent of the wire centers that provide cellular service are also at risk

24 Transportation Storm surge and debris are likely to have significant local and regional impacts on the roads in and around Savannah, GA The Ports of Savannah and Brunswick will suffer some damage from storm surge and high winds All airports in the region will suffer electric power outages Light-to-moderate rail disruption is expected at a regional level, with nearly complete recovery within 1 to 2 days of storm passage Transportation impacts from stormsurge inundation will be confined to the counties along the Atlantic Coast of Georgia and the southern portion of South Carolina Flooded Road, Tybee Island, GA Credit: J. Evans, Georgia Sea Grant

25 Water and Wastewater There are 12 water treatment plants located within the 76- to 100- percent electric power damage contour These facilities serve more than 376,000 people in Georgia and South Carolina State Number of Wastewater Treatment Facilities State Electric Power Percent Damage (%) Georgia North Carolina South Carolina Virginia Total Water Treatment Plant Electric Power Percent Damage (%) Georgia North Carolina South Carolina Virginia Total wastewater treatment facilities in Georgia and 1 in South Carolina located within the 76- to 100-percent electric power damage contour These facilities serve approximately 91,500 people

26 Government Facilities National-level impacts to Department of Defense (DOD) sites are not expected Storm surge is expected to significantly impact Marine Corps Recruit Depot at Parris Island in South Carolina Likely significant impacts to Kings Bay Naval Submarine Base and Fort Stewart s Hunter Army Airfield in Georgia

27 Business Interruptions The estimated range of the direct gross domestic product (GDP) reduction resulting from this hurricane scenario is $3.5 to $5.3 billion Estimated total national reduction to the GDP is between $9.0 and $13.7 billion, which includes lost regional economic output and its indirect effect on total output

28 For more information contact: National Protection and Programs Directorate Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis U.S. Department of Homeland Security