F e b Des Muller Chairman for NIASA Supply Chain Development Subcommittee

Transcription

1 Aligning our Industry to a Nuclear New Build Program F e b Des Muller Chairman for NIASA Supply Chain Development Subcommittee

2 Content: 1. The Relevance of Nuclear Energy in Africa 2. Why Can SA Have a Nuclear Build Program? 3. Bridging the Industry Gap in Time..

3 1. The Relevance of Nuclear Energy in Africa

4 A Balanced and Sustainable Energy Portfolio for Africa A Balanced and Sustainable Energy Portfolio should deliver Safe, Clean, Reliable and Affordable Energy from a mixed array of energy sources. (Reliability includes Fuel Security) It should also provide Energy Security, Energy Equity and Environmental Sustainability With over 600 million African people without access to power, a large scale sustainable energy strategy is needed based on 21 st Century innovation and lessons learned. Large scale NPPs are suitable for high capacity national or regionalised grids. Small Modular Reactors will be suited to small grids & decentralised energy solutions. Nuclear Energy can deliver to other Sustainability Goals like Desalination, Preservation of Fresh Water, Transmission Loss Reduction and powering Electric Transportation. The size and duration of a nuclear fleet can contribute significantly toward socioeconomic development with long term benefits in local Job and Career creation. Although the total lifecycle costs of NPPs are low, their high construction costs requires careful planning and the most optimal funding solution for the country. A protracted industry readiness programme allows for a structured funding program Industrialisation Must Underpin Transformation CR (SONA 2018)... and Growth

5 2. Why Can SA Have a Nuclear Build Program?

6 The Energy Landscape in South Africa South Africa has a well established nuclear industry with two operating assets. S A N u c l e a r I n d u s t r y The five qualified nuclear vendors are ready to participate in a competitive tender. The contentious cloud around nuclear procurement is being resolved. South Africa s CO₂ emissions per kwh remain one of the highest in the world. Eskom will retire its 50 yr + Coal fleet at an average rate of about 1.25 GW a year. Replacement of Retired Base Load could take up to 10 years. Lessons Learned South Africa s NNBP procurement started in 2007 with the Nuclear One Program SA Govt. Local Industry N u c l e a r V e n d o r s The IAEA performed an Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) in It makes sense from a sustainability point if two nuclear units are on load by 2030 The imminent release of the IRP will determine whether Nuclear is in the mix or not. Komati Duvha Lethabo (By 2050, due to the decommissioning programme, only Medupi, Kusile and Koeberg will be in operation from the current base load fleet)

7 Nuclear New Build Opportunities for the Local Industry Potential New Build Scope: o 2 PWR NPPs for Eskom (Cape Town) 10 Years 30 to 40% Localisation o 1 Production Reactor for NECSA 7 Year Program 40 to 60% Localisation o Small Modular Reactor development (PBMR/AHTR or Other) NPP early Infrastructure Works and Site Establishment (R20Bn 100% local) Koeberg Circa 1980 Nuclear Industry Leadership Development and Training Programmes Nuclear New Build Procurement Process (Technical Legal Financial) Local Industry Supplier Qualification and International Partnering Programme Nuclear-Grade Human Capacity Development and Qualification. (long lead time) Nuclear Power Plant Engineering Project Management Manufacturing Construction. Local spend roughly estimated at ~R26Bn per GW installed. Nuclear Plant Commissioning, Optimisation and Commercial Operation Operations & Maintenance and Outages (60 to 80 Years) - Decommissioning The above is well within our Industry s grasp and should therefore demand it.

8 3. Bridging the Industry Gap in Time.

9 A Perspective on Nuclear Safety Classification & Localisation Nuclear Island Mainly Safety Class 1 & 2 Primary Circuit Strong Nuclear Safety Culture Conventional Island Mainly Safety Class 2 & 3 Secondary Circuit Nuclear Safety Culture Localisation Guideline Units 1/2 Localisation Potential 30 40% 20 NI - 25% Localisation = 14% of total EPC CI - 50% Localisation = 11.25% of total EPC BOP & MW total EPC - 66% Localisation = 14% of Balance of Plant Mainly Safety Class 3 ~ ISO 9001 Tertiary Circuit Safety Culture EPC cost R60 to 70m per MW The Nuclear Island, with its stringent nuclear safety standards and requirements, is a new frontier for industrial excellence and ingenuity for South Africa. IR4 Friendly Rewards are high but so are the Risks. These can be managed through early dedicated commitment, preparation and readiness. 1. Reactor Pressure Vessel 2. Primary Pump 3. Pressuriser 4. Steam Generators x 3 5. Steam Turbine 6. Accumulator 7. Condenser 8. Generator 9. Transformer & Switchyard 10. Fuel Storage & Pool 11. Fuel Handling System 12. Inner Containment Building 13. Outer Containment Building 14. Fuel Storage Building 15. Turbine Building 16. Deaerator Storage Tank 17. Control Room 18. Emergency Generator 19. Balance of Nuclear Island 20. Polar Crane Nuclear Island is ~55% of the scope of work. International Partnering is essential Safety Class 3 work is a good industry gradient but will be highly competitive. (ED)

10 40% Localisation (1) 30% Localisation (2) 20% Localisation (3) IRP RFP Site License Preferred Vendor Sel Early Infra Works Ven. Contract Award Loc. Contract Award Constr. License First Nu Concrete U1 Comm. Operation U2 Comm. Operation Localisation Potential for First Two Nuclear Power Plants (Target 30 to 40%) Timeline Reverse Engineered NPP Build Key Milestone Dates Paris Agreement 20%< Postulated COD (with Local Content) Base Load Margin Erosion Commissioning Early Infrastructure Works NPP Engineering Manufacturing - Construction Industry Mobilisation Local Industry Qualification & Contracting % Localisation will be a function of Nuclear Industry Readiness Market Uncertainty is eroding Localisation Potential Risks: This above program caters only for two Eskom PWR units. Parallel NECSA or SMR programs TBA? Nuclear Vendors are likely to engage the local industry only once selected as Preferred Bidder. Local industry needs sufficient time to be qualified to sign Safety Class Level 1 and 2 contracts. Delayed Local Industry Readiness will impede Industry participation and elevate risk. Rewards: Any form of nuclear pre-qualification or qualification will augment the organisation s overall capabilities. Nuclear Industry Readiness opens opportunities for Import Displacement and Africa/Global exports. Per kw installed, nuclear energy provides the highest concentration of jobs over the long term. Nuclear Technology offers the greatest intellectual development opportunity for our youth!

11 T h e s u r e s t w a y t o P r e d i c t t h e F u t u r e i s t o C r e a t e O n e K e y I n g r e d i e n t s : A n E n a b l i n g E n v i r o n m e n t A n E n g a g e d I n d u s t r y T h e R i g h t P a r t n e r s

12 Thank You The Facts of Nuclear Energy alone are enough to Earn the World s Confidence desmuller@niasa.co.za Contributors: Izibani Consultancy NuEnergy Developments