Modeling the Power Generation Sectors of East Asia in 2050 The choice of Power Sources by Regulation of Nuclear and Coal power

Transcription

1 Academia Sinica October 6, 2017 Modeling the Power Generation Sectors of East Asia in 2050 The choice of Power Sources by Regulation of Nuclear and Coal power Presented by Li-Chun Chen (Yamaguchi University, Japan) Co-authored by Aiko Azuma (Shokei Gakuin University, Japan) Unnada Chewpreecha (Cambridge Econometrics) Sung-In Na (Hiroshima Shudo Universit, Japan) Yanmin He (Kyoto University, Japan) Ken ichi Matsumoto (Nagasaki University, Japan) Soocheol Lee (Meijo University, Japan)

2 1.The Overview of the paper

3 1.1 The Overview of the paper Purpose Investigate the impact of Environmental & Energy Policy on future power generation configuration CO2 emissions from the electric power sector Environmental & Energy Policy; the regulation of coal or(and) nuclear power generation. Model: E3ME-Asia model complemented by a simulation model of Future Technology Transformations (FTT: Power) The outline of this model will be presented at the next presentation.

4 1.2 The Overview of the paper Target countries: China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan Period: Deference from Reference Scenario of Asia/World Energy Outlook (AEO2016) by IEEJ Simulation period: Policy regulation: ambitious reduction of coal and nuclear

5 2. The current status and future goals of the power sector

6 2.1 the current status and future goals of the power sector Japan (power generation configuration)

7 2.2 the current status and future goals of the power sector Japan (current status of nuclear power) Application for reactor installation is submitted (as of 2016) Application for reactor installation is not submitted yet decided decommission ing after 2011 total 25 Amendment of reactor Application for reactor installation license was installation is under review permitted by NRA by NRA 10 already not yet operation 15 operating

8 Power generation mix (%) Total electricity output (TWh/year) 2.3the current status and future goals of the power sector Japan (future goal of the share of power generation) GHG reduction goal: 23% from 2013 level by % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 956 1% 8% 29% 29% 7% 25% % 13% 8% 9% 53% 13% 2% 11% % 27% 3% 26% 2009 Goal for 2030 as of 2010 Goal for 2030 as of 2015 Coal Oil LNG Nuclear Large Hydro Other renewables total electricity output

9 2.4the current status and future goals of the power sector China (current status of installed capacity & future goal) GHG reduction goal: 60-65% per GDP from 2005 level by achievements Installed capacity Electricity 13FYP (Targets by 2020) Share of Primary energy consumption Installed capacity 2050 Road Map (Targets by 2050) Share of Primary energy consumption Hydropower 320 GW 380 GW 554GW Nuclear 27GW 58GW 100GW Wind 131 GW 210 GW 15% 2396GW Solar PV 43 GW 110 GW 2696GW Bioenergy 10.3 GW 15 GW 133GW Geothermal 0.03 GW N/A 11GW Coal 900GW <1100GW 886GW Gas 66GW 110GW 220GW 60%

10 2.5the current status and future goals of the power sector Korea (current status & future goal) GHG reduction goal: 37% from BAU projected level by Achievements 7 th Basic Plan for Electlicity supply and demand by 2029 (as of 2015) Installed capacity (%) Share of power generation (%) Installed capacity (%) Generation mix by 2035 under 4 th Basic plan renewable energies(%) Nuclear Coal LNG New and Renewable Energy Others

11 2.6the current status and future goals of the power sector Taiwan (current status & future goal) GHG reduction goal: 20% from 2005 level by Achievements Energy transformation goal by 2030 Share of power Installed capacity Share of power generation (%) (MW) generation(%) Nuclear 14.1% Phase out 0% thermal 80.6% large hydro 2089MW 2200 Wind 737MW 5200 Solar 842MW 4.1% 8700 Biomass 741MW 950 Geothemal 0MW %

12 3. Scenarios

13 3.1 Scenarios Baseline S1: Nuclear power regulation S2: Coal power regulation S3: S1+S2 (Nuclear & Coal regulation) In all scenarios, no CO2 restriction.

14 Actual data IEEJ(2016) Extended trend Baseline year (GW) 2050 China Nuclear Coal Japan Nuclear Coal Korea Nuclear Coal Taiwan Nuclear Coal

15 3.3 comparison of nuclear power capacity between reference scenario and scenario 1

16 3.4 comparison of coal power capacity between reference scenario and scenario 2

17 4. Results

18 4.1 Results (China)

19 4.2 Power generation configuration (China) Baseline S1 S2 S3 Nuclear Fossil fuels Renewables (incl. CCS) Total

20 4.3 CO2 emissions (China) Baseline C3S2 - coal regulation C3S1- nulear regulation C3S3 - nuclear and coal regulation

21 4.4 Results (Japan)

22 4.5 Power generation configuration (Japan) Baseline S1 S2 S Nuclear 3% 9% 0% 21% 0% Oil 15% 10% 8% 11% 14% Coal thermal +IGCC(incl. CCS) 31% 34% 75% 14% 21% Gas thermal (CCGT) (incl. CCS) 40% 38% 8% 42% 52% Large Hydro 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% Renewable 5% 3% 2% 4% 5%

23 4.6 CO2 emissions (Japan) Baseline C3S1- nulear regulation C3S2 - coal regulation C3S3 - nuclear and coal regulation

24 4.7 Results (Korea)

25 4.8 Power generation configuration (Korea) Baseline S1 S2 S3 Nuclear Fossil fuels Renewables (incl. CCS) Total

26 4.9 CO2 emissions (Korea) Baseline C3S1- nulear regulation C3S2 - coal regulation C3S3 - nuclear and coal regulation

27 4.10 Results (Taiwan)

28 4.11 Power generation configuration (Taiwan) Baseline S1 S2 S3 Nuclear Fossil fuels Renewables (incl. CCS) Total

29 4.12 CO2 emissions (Taiwan) Baseline C3S2 - coal regulation C3S1- nulear regulation C3S3 - nuclear and coal regulation

30 5. Conclusion

31 5.1 Conclusion From S1 result : a phasing out of nuclear power increases in electricity generation output from coal power, does not contribute much to the diffusion of renewable energy From S2 result : a phasing out of coal power increases in electricity generation output from nuclear and gasfired thermal power. does not contribute much to the diffusion of renewable energy (reason) no renewable energy support polices no carbon reduction target

32 5.2 Conclusion From S3 result : a phasing out of nuclear & coal power generation from renewable energy slightly increases in renewable energy. (Why slightly?) Coal + CCS, Gas+ CCS Policy recommendation It is important to regulate the share of coal-fired power and nuclear power generation in the power sector to enable an increase in renewable energy sources.

33 Thank you for listening!!