The transport sector - status

Transcription

1 A brief overview of trends in the transport sector SIAFI UIC 27 September 2007 Margrethe Sagevik, Senior Advisor Sustainable Development

2 Macro trends in the transport market Globalization Climate change and resource shortage Deregulation Demographic development Growth markets are emerging in Asia and Eastern Europe Outsourcing is on the increase Global flow of goods is increasing Transport sector as a key driver of CO 2 emissions rail produces lowest emission levels Increasing prices for fossil fuels Shortage of transport infrastructure Further liberalization of rail transport Pressure on public purse Outsourcing of public responsibilities Changing age structure Varied regional developmen. and tretd towards urbanization

3 Some trends

4 Increasing demand for passenger/freight services Everything available at all times: Passenger services: holidays, shopping in London, Paris, NY... Fright services: Fresh food Exotic furniture (long travelling)

5 Climate change Transport causes % of global GHG emissions and it s not yet tackled!

6 Climate change: World map illustrated by population & CO 2 -emissions

7 Climate change: Sectoral development in GHG-emissions Does not include emissions from fuel sold to international air or marine transport UNFCCC s Key GHG Data (2005)

8 Climate change: Trends in development in GHG-emissions Development in emissions caused by fuel sold to international air or marine transport UNFCCC s Key GHG Data (2005)

9 Climate change: Development of CO2-emissions in Europe: Scenarios Total transport Maritime transport air transport inland navigation rail transport road transport Source: European Environment Agency -100 % -50 % 0 % 50 % 100 % EEA old member states 10 new member states

10 Climate change: Emissions from aviation. If unchecked aviation will eat full climate cake! If unchecked aviation will eat full climate cake!!! Source: Tyndall, Growth scenarios for EU and UK aviation, 2005

11 Climate change: Emissions from aviation. Tickets are one third cheaper than in 1991! price (1991 = passengers 20 cargo average Source: AEA Technology

12 The problem will grow! Source:

13 Transport brings enormous benefits to society, but also many costs Status: Transport & mobility patterns - not developing in sustainable ways: The external costs of transport are increasing: Increasing demand for passenger/freight transport Growing markets for automotive and aviation International aviation and shipping not included in Kyoto targets/transport not in the European ETS Technological improvements eaten by volume growth Lack of cross sectoral approaches in development of transport policies The true costs of transport the external effects are not reflected in the market

14 Transport brings enormous benefits to society, but also many costs Status: Transport & mobility patterns - not developing in sustainable ways: The external costs of transport are increasing: Increasing demand for passenger/freight transport Growing markets for automotive and aviation International aviation and shipping not included in Kyoto targets/transport not in the European ETS Technological improvements eaten by volume growth Lack of cross sectoral approaches in development of transport policies The true costs of transport the external effects are not reflected in the market Railways have a very good and important story to tell:

15 Transport brings enormous benefits to society, but also many costs Status: Transport & mobility patterns - not developing in sustainable ways: The external costs of transport are increasing: Increasing demand for passenger/freight transport Growing markets for automotive and aviation International aviation and shipping not included in Kyoto targets/transport not in the European ETS Technological improvements eaten by volume growth Lack of cross sectoral approaches in development of transport policies The true costs of transport the external effects are not reflected in the market Railways have a very good and important story to sell: - Becoming increasingly important!!!: