Future Growth of the U.S. Aquaculture Industry and Associated Environmental Quality Issues

Transcription

1 Future Growth of the U.S. Aquaculture Industry and Associated Environmental Quality Issues Di Jin, Hauke Kite Powell, and Porter Hoagland Marine Policy Center Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 16 November

2 Outline Broad trends in seafood production Aquaculture supplies crucial in future Policy questions Types of marine aquaculture Economic and ecological effects Model framework Open-ocean aquaculture in New England and simulation results Summary 2 2

3 World and U.S. Marine Fish Landings ( ) U.S. World 87 mmt index (1953) mmt 2 mmt 4.7 mmt

4 [N.b. some kinds of aquaculture draw upon the capture fisheries.] 4 4

5 World Aquaculture Production: $60 billion aquatic plants 10% diadromous fish 10% crustaceans 18% molluscs marine fish 18% 7% freshwater fish 36% miscellaneous aquatic animals 1% 5 SOFIA (2004) 5

6 Current and Projected World Fisheries and Aquaculture Production (mmt) Total capture fisheries Total aquaculture Total world fisheries

7 US Seafood Consumption: a lbs per capit

8 US Landings and Imports (index) US landings US imports (edible fish) 2.2 mmt mmt

9 US Aquaculture Production (mt) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 US salmon culture (mt) US shellfish culture (mt) $126m $28m 5,

10 Some Policy Questions Can marine aquaculture expand to ensure the supply of seafood at current per capita consumption levels? Can marine aquaculture reduce the US dependence on seafood imports? Can we encourage the development of sustainable aquaculture? What do we mean by sustainable? 10 10

11 Sustainable Agriculture... practices that meet current and future societal needs for food and fibre, for ecosystem services, and for healthy lives, and that do so by maximizing the net benefit to society when all costs and benefits of the practices are considered... If society is to maximize the net benefits of agriculture, there must be a fuller accounting of both the costs and the benefits of alternative agricultural practices, and such an accounting must become the basis of policy, ethics, and action. Tilman et al. (2002) 11 11

12 Types of Marine Aquaculture Marine Aquaculture Open-Ocean Nearshore Onshore Finfish Finfish Finfish Shellfish Shellfish Saltpond Shellfish Polyculture Polyculture Coastal Shrimp Polyculture 12 12

13 Netpens 13 13

14 Longlines 14 14

15 Typology of Economic and Ecological Effects Positive Negative Indeterminate Direct Economic Effects Increase in seafood output Decrease in seafood price Increase in demands for factors from other industries R&D and technology investments Administrative costs of providing access Ineffective regulations Industry concentration (if monopolistic) Employment for currently unemployed workers Increase in seafood quality External Effects Organic nutrient inputs (up to a threshold) Nutrient removal (shellfish) Displacement of more productive ocean uses Eutrophication Chemical pollution Pharmaceutical pollution Escapement Ecosystem disruption Protected species takings Growth overfishing of ranched stocks Bioaccumulation of carcinogens in fish Overexploitation of forage fish stocks Distributional Effects Employment opportunities in a new industry Redeployment of unused capital from the fishing industry Rents accrue to the public as the owner of ocean space Local communities left out of industry Reorganization of local market structure Loss of access to local seafood protein (forage fish) Reduction of trade deficit 15 15

16 Qualitative Assessment of Effects Note: all effects are negative unless preceded by "+". "Z" = zero, "M" = moderate, "S" = significant. Offshore Finfish NearshoreFinfish Land Based Finfish Nearshore Mollusks Offshore Mollusks Offshore Fish Ranching Nearshore Fish Ranching Coastal Marine Shrimp Polyculture Organic Pollution and Eutrophication Chemical and Pharmaceutical Pollution Habitat Modification Disease Transmission to Wild Stocks Escapements and Interbreeding Exploitation of Forage Fish Stock Takings of Protected Species Direct Depletion of Natural Stocks Bioaccumulation of Carcinogens M S M Z Z Z M S M Z M M Z Z Z Z S Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z S Z S S Z M M Z Z Z M S S Z M M Z Z Z M S S S Z Z S S Z Z M M Z Z M M M Z M Z Z Z Z Z S S Z Z S S S Z Z M M Z Z Increased Productivity from Nutrient Input +M +S Z Z Z Z Z Z +M Nutrient Removal Z Z Z +S +M Z Z Z +M Significant negative effect Significant positive effect Moderate negative effect Moderate positive effect 16 Neutra l or No effect 16

17 Priority Issues for Sustainability Nearshore finfish culture Open-ocean finfish culture disease transmission to wild stocks escapement and interbreeding with or displacement of wild stocks overexploitation of forage fish stocks organic pollution use conflicts Finfish ranching escapement and interbreeding with or displacement of wild stocks overexploitation of forage fish stocks depletion of natural stocks use conflicts 17 17

18 Assimilative Capacity of the Coastal Environment and Industry Growth Potential Water quality standard Max N & P loading from aquaculture Current levels of N & P Aquaculture production level 18 18

19 Fish Stock Population Income Local Fisheries Imports Seafood Demand Seafood Supply Aquaculture Industry Scale Aquaculture Technologies Pollution Level Aquaculture Policy 19 19

20 Model max { B ( E, x, s ) C ( E ) C ( s ) I ( z ) D ( s )}e δt dt 0 f a Subject to x = f ( x ) s = z qxe 20 20

21 rx 2 f ( x ) = rx K C f = ce C a = vs I = bz D = ms Fish stock growth Cost of fishing Cost of aquaculture production Investment in aquaculture Environmental damage 21 21

22 MC = δb+ v + m Marginal cost of aquaculture a w qe MC f = mc f 1 + df δ dx Marginal cost of fishing Steady-state fish stock + r 2 cr /( qk ) ( δ ) MC ± [ cr /( qk ) + ( r δ ) MC ] + 8δcrMC /( qk ) * a a a x = Steady-state aquaculture production scale 4rMC / K a * s = * p 0 kf (x ) (δb + v + m) / w kw 22 22

23 Parameters for the Market and the Fishery Variable Description Unit Value p 0 intercept of fish demand function $/MT 2,546 k slope of fish demand function $10-3 /MT r -1 Intrinsic growth rate time K carrying capacity 10 3 MT 1,681 q catchability coefficient day c unit cost of fishing effort ( E) 10 3 $/day 3.3 δ discount rate

24 Parameters for Open-Ocean Aquaculture Variable Description Unit Value FCR average feed conversion ratio w aquaculture production MT/farm 2,115 output per farm v Aquaculture production 10 3 $/year/farm 3,615 operating cost a (3,913) b investment cost a 10 3 $/farm 7,514 (7,792) 12 E(fq) feed quantity MT/year/farm 2,765 Q BOD biochemical oxygen MT/year/farm 968 demand (BOD) Q TN total nitrogen (TN) MT/year/farm 83 Q TP total phosphorus (TP) MT/year/farm 14 Q TSS total suspended solids MT/year/farm 830 (TSS) a. Values are associated with feed cost (fp) = $0.50/kg and $0.60/kg (in parentheses), respectively

25 Output Variables Description Simulation Results Unit Without With Rising Damage Damage Imports x fish stock 10 3 MT E fishing effort 10 6 days h f fishing landings 10 3 MT s aquaculture industry farms size h a aquaculture production 10 3 MT h total fish supply 10 3 MT N BOD total BOD MT 10,609 4,008 3,146 N TN total TN MT N TP total TN MT NTSS total TSS MT 9,097 3,436 2,

26 / Market Demand and Supply 3000 P hf B ha C MC a price ($ MT) 1500 demand curve MCf A fish production (thousand MT) 26 26

27 Farm-Level Environmental Damage and Aquaculture Industry Size number of farms environmental damage per farm ($ thousands) FCR = FCR = FCR =

28 Unit Environmental Damage and Aquaculture Industry Size number of farms environmental damage per unit feed ($/MT) FCR = FCR = FCR =

29 Future Expansion of Open-Ocean Aquculture Industry number of farms year 1% demand growth 2% demand growth 3% demand growth 29 29

30 New England Groundfish Landings and Projection thousand metric tons year 30 30

31 Summary Reviewed the market trends in seafood production. Reviewed economic and ecological effects resulting from marine aquaculture. Existing studies project the future expansion of marine aquaculture industry based on the assimilative capacity of the coastal environment. Developed a market-oriented approach for projecting future industry expansion. Developed a New England case study for open-ocean aquaculture. Socially optimal solution involves a combination of wild harvest fishery and aquaculture. Future size of open-ocean aquaculture industry is affected by its costs and productivity, effectiveness of pollution control, and growth in seafood demand