Research project related to short-lived climate pollutants S-12, Environment Research and Technology Development Fund, MOEJ

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1 Research project related to short-lived climate pollutants S-12, Environment Research and Technology Development Fund, MOEJ Toshihiko Masui National Institute for Environmental Studies Bridging Atmospheric Science and Policy in Asia: Areas for Collaboration Shinagawa Prince Hotel, Tokyo, Japan March 10, 2015 Acknowledgement: This research is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12) of MOEJ.

2 Background: Importance in SLCP impact studies Concept of SLCP(Short-Lived Climate Pollutants):Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone (UNEP 2011) CCAC (Climate and Clean Air Coalition) SLCP impact study:emission Gap Report (UNEP 2010) However, the radiative forcing and impact assessment have large uncertainties: BC and indirect effects Recent large BC forcing estimates: Chuan et al. (PNAS 12);Bond et al. ( JGR 13) Moreover, SLCP may cause large regional climate changes. 2

3 Environment Research and Technology Development Fund, MOEJ S-12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing impacts of SLCP and LLGHG emission pathways Theme 1: Analysis on regional atmospheric quality change Emission inventory (REAS) Inverse model to estimate emissions research/p3/emission.htm Regional atmosphere and environment assessment model Emission inventory Theme 2: Socio-economic and global emission scenarios National & local emission scenarios Urban & household emission and air quality assessment Integrated assessment model (AIM) Assessment of activities/policies Future scenarios and events related to SLCP emissions Feedback of impacts Theme 3: impact assessment of aerosol and GHG Assessment of health, agriculture, water and sea level rise Climate and environment model Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia Enduse model Socio-economic and emission scenario Climate model, earth system model climate change impact and adaptation Theme 4: Tool kit and data archive (synthesis system), NICAM-Chem Science model upgrading Definition of metric Database Solution of issues system utilization Policy maker Stakeholder CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANET Proposal and assessment of climate and air pollution policies Society information transmission MDG, SDG, Future Earth Regional strategies Global strategies 3

4 Environment Research and Technology Development Fund, MOEJ S-12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing impacts of SLCP and LLGHG emission pathways Members Project Leader & Theme 4 Leader: Prof. Teruyuki Nakajima, Univ. of Tokyo Theme 1 Leader: Dr. Toshimasa Ohara, NIES Sub-themes: NIES, ASAP, MRI Theme 2 Leader: Dr. Toshihiko Masui, NIES Sub-themes: NIES, MHIR, Kyoto Univ. Theme 3 Leader: Prof. Toshihiko Takemura, Kyushu Univ. Sub-theme: Kyushu Univ., Nagoya Univ., Kyoto Univ., Ibaraki Univ., JAMSTEC, Kinki Univ. Research Period: FY2014-FY2018 4

5 The 2nd ABC-SLCP Symposium, July, Tokyo 5

6 Theme 1: Regional air quality change event analysis Regional Air quality change events Beijing Olympic game, AQ mitigations in Japan and China,, Spring festival, weekend effects, economic crisis, SURYA,,, combined Analysis/verification system for SLCP mitigation AIM Theme2 Emission Inventory system Inverse Modeling system Chemical Transport Modeling system Global/regional CTM (MIROC/ESM/CHEM/WRF/CMAQ) Multi-scale seamless CTM (NICAM-Chem) Analysis/verification of emission reduction and AQ changes due to SLCP mitigation 6

7 Theme 2: Improvement of Integrated Assessment Model and Quantification of Future Scenarios Goals of Theme 2 AIM(Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)/Enduse model will be improved in order to assess air pollution management technologies in global scale and major Asian countries. National AIM/Enduse model will be disaggregated into local scale. By using the improved models, emissions scenarios on LLGHG and SLCP will be quantified taking into account GHG mitigation options and air pollution management. Emission scenarios and air pollution impacts in household and city scale will be assessed. Future socio-economic scenarios reflecting climate and environmental change based on results in Theme 3 will be assessed. Assessment of ctions and policies Sub-(1): NIES Global scale AIM/Enduse model AIM/CGE model Inventory Sub-(2): MHIR National/Local scale AIM/Enduse model Futures Scenarios Countermeasures Sub-(3): Kyoto Univ. Household & city scale Emission model Air pollution model Future Scenarios Theme 1 Theme 4 Theme 3 Feedback from Impacts Expected Results Quantification of socio-economic scenarios and LLGHG & SLCP emission scenarios taking into account climate and environmental change in global/national/local scale. Assessment of GHG mitigation and air pollution reduction policies in Asian countries. 7

8 Theme 3: Assessment of climate-environment and impacts by SLCPs with numerical models Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (ERTDF) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan S-12: Theme 1 Theme 2 Theme 3 Theme 4 Assessment of climate-environment and impacts by SLCPs with numerical models Objective of S-12-3 Quantitative assessment of effects of SLCPs on climate, hydrological cycle, health, and agriculture with climate-air quality coupled models. Contribution to scientific bases for suitable reductions of SLCPs/WMGHGs. Emission inventories and scenarios [Themes 1 & 2] Suitable reduction path [Theme 4] Assessment of effects of SLCPs on climate with climateaerosol-chemistry models (SPRINTARS/CHASER) [Sub-themes 1 & 2] Assessment of changes in hydrological cycles by SLCPs with climate models [Sub-themes 5 & 6] Assessment of impacts on health and agriculture by SLCPs [sub-themes 3 & 4] Theme 3 8

9 6 GHGs emissions pathways in Asia and comparison with 2 target pathways Emissions constraints of achieving 2-3 were calculated based on UNEP Gap Report Future global economy-wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO 2 ) Scenario name Reference US$/tCO US$/tCO US$/tCO US$/tCO GHG emissions in Asia (Gt CO2eq) GHG reductions ratio in Asia (% from reference) -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% -100% % 45% reductions from the 2005 levels Reference 50US$/tCO2 100US$/tCO2 200US$/tCO2 400US$/tCO2 Reference T50 T100 T200 T scenario 2.5 scenario 3 scenario Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (2014) 9

10 SLCP & Air pollutants emissions in Asia - Co-benefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies SO2 emissions in Asia (Mt SO2) NOx emissions in Asia (Mt NOx) Reference US$/tCO2 BC emissions in Asia (Mt BC) PM emissions in Asia (Mt PM) US$/tCO2 200US$/tCO2 400US$/tCO2 3 scenario 2.5 scenario scenario Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (2014) 10