Trinidad y Tobago. Vikash Supersad. Sao Paulo, Brazil, November 6, 2013

Transcription

1 Gobernanza del transporte: Integración logística para un uso más sostenible de recursos naturales en América latina y el Caribe Trinidad y Tobago Vikash Supersad Sao Paulo, Brazil, November 6, 2013 Proyecto CEPAL / UNDA: Integración logística para una explotación más sostenible de los recursos naturales en América Latina y el Caribe

2 Bienvenido al Caribe! Source: European Parliamentary Research Service Comprises many countries, with various foreign territories with small populations There are multiple languages and great cultural diversity But most of all the Caribbean is Logistically Complex!

3 US cents / Kwh Power Generation is heavily reliant on Fuel Oil / Diesel LAC US Installed Capacity (MW) Natural Gas Fuel Oil / Diesel Hydro Biomass / Waste-to-Energy Wind Solar Electricity Tariff ( /Kwh) With the exception of Trinidad, Suriname (and now recently Guyana), CARICOM nations don t have indigenous hydrocarbon resources. Reliance on Fuel Oil / Diesel means: Vulnerability to oil price shocks High debt and low foreign reserves High carbon footprint High electricity prices that affect relative competitiveness of local industries, and ultimately the local economy

4 Fuel Oil Natural Gas Cheaper Electricity Competitive Industries CARICOM Energy Policy: Diversification of existing sources of fuels and Promotion of renewable sources of energy COP21 agreement allows developing nations and SIDS (including CARICOM states) to access funding to hasten the transition to green technologies to reduce emissions. Move to renewables would not phase out fuel oil and diesel immediately or completely Natural Gas would be required as a bridging fuel New Policies 2025 New Policies 2040 Current Policies 2025 Current Policies Scenario Scenario 2040 Coal 2,316 3,926 3,955 4,140 4,361 5,327 3,175 2,000 Oil 3,669 4,266 4,577 4,775 4,751 5,402 4,169 3,326 Gas 2,071 2,893 3,390 4,313 3,508 4,718 3,292 3,301 Nuclear , , ,590 Hydro Bioenergy 1,026 1,421 1,633 1,883 1,619 1,834 1,733 2,310 Other Renewables , ,759 Total 10,042 13,684 15,340 17,866 15,937 19,636 14,355 14,878 Fossil-fuel share 80% 81% 78% 74% 79% 79% 74% 58% Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook, 2016

5 Projected Annual Production (Tcf/yr) Barrels ('000) of Oil Equivalent Per Day US$ Can Trinidad supply Natural Gas? Yes and No. Trinidad Oil & Gas Production (KOBPD) vs. GDP per capita (US$) , , , Oil Price Crash 10, , Oil Production (KBOPD) Natural Gas Production (KBOPD) GDP per capita (current US$) T&T Production Forecast 2.00 Deep Water Exploration Shallow Water Exploration 1.50 Sanctioned Upside Cross-border Loran (Venezuela) 1.00 Cross-border Manatee (Trinidad) 0.50 Mariscal Sucre (Venezuela) TT Discovered Resources 0.00 Sanctioned (Poten & Partners) Industry Capacity Today Trinidad is faced with its own production challenges. But it is anticipated that supply would increase in the short-term. The demand of the Caribbean states can be easily. incorporated. But more must be done... Source: IHS, Wood Mackenzie, Ryder Scott & Poten and Partners

6 What is happening in some Caribbean islands? Jamaica began importing LNG via FSU with shuttle vessel in Barbados imported ISOTANKS in 2016 from the USA, and have plans to import from Dominican Republic (DR). DR is fast becoming an established hub, and also plans to export LNG in ISOTANKs to the Bahamas. The AES Andres facility in DR imports conventional size LNG from Trinidad, as does Puerto Rico. Other territories with smaller demand have been unable to implement LNG solutions.

7 US$ / mmbtu Feasibility of Small Scale LNG Industry advances have been able to lower previously prohibitive cost of LNG, and small-scale LNG. Smaller shipping distances facilitate better logistics (and costs): Less boil off or cargo loss Need to hold lower inventory, and hence lower initial capital investment Small Scale LNG Value Chain US$ 8.50 / MMBtu price advantage of small-scale LNG over diesel to the end customer; latter is 59% more expensive even when all of the costs along the value chain are incorporated.

8 Enabling Small-Scale LNG in the Caribbean Policy decisions are needed to support: (i) Energy Security and diversification of the Fuel mix, (ii) FDI, (iii) Environmental goals, (iv) Competitiveness, (v) Public Awareness and (vi) Knowledge Transfer. LNG in Maritime Sector CNG in Transportation The inherent demand of the Power sector exists, and is further bolstered by the industrial expansion, and the use of natural gas in the transport and maritime sectors. Growth of Industrial and Manufacturing Sectors enabled by cheaper fuel Increasing demand for Power Conversion of existing Power Generation from Fuel oil and Diesel

9 Regional Coordination and Influencing needed Atlantic LNG in Trinidad can supply but there must be a coordinated regional approach with the Government of Trinidad and the state-owned National Gas Company. Regional coordination allows the creation of an economy of scale. Commercial options must be considered such as concessionary pricing or leveraging s Venezuela s PetroCaribe program. Access to Financing is imperative.

10 Setting up the Value Chain LNG Supply Facility Physical Flow of LNG / Gas Private Sector interest State ownership LNG Trading Company State Gas Supply & Marketing Agency Receiving, Storage & Regasification Facility State Power Transmission Company Power Company Industrial Consumers & other sectors Typical value chains have both stateowned gas companies as well as private firms that are integrated across the chain. Private Sector Energy Company Governments should also attempt to participate in this area of the value chain via a Joint Venture, with the aid of international funding to meet its equity capital as necessary.

11 Integrated LNG / small-scale logistics for greater economic prosperity and meeting environmental targets The Old Harbour Bay plant in Jamaica [running on natural gas via LNG] will generate electricity at a tariff less than US$ 0.13/Kwh (compared to the current estimated tariff of US$ 0.31/Kwh) - Kelly Tomblin, former President and CEO of the Jamaica Public Service, 2017 The power plant will be more fuel efficient and will reduce Jamaica's imports of oil and use of fuel. Once operational, we estimate that will be about US$200 million in savings per annum - Dan Theoc, General Manager of SJPC, and CFO of Jamaica Public Service, 2017 With LNG, we will save 50% of our annual energy costs, or about US$336,000 per year, and also reduce 6,000 tons of green house gas emissions annually - Ricardo Nuncio, Managing Director of Red Stripe Beer, 2017

12 Thank you!