Distributed Generation: Increased Penetration of Fuel Cells Fulfills the Promise of Increased Energy Efficiency and Greater Emissions Reductions

Transcription

1 Distributed Generation: Increased Penetration of Fuel Cells Fulfills the Promise of Increased Energy Efficiency and Greater Emissions Reductions Lorna A. Los Alamos, New Mexico Telephone: (505)

2 Caveats and Acknowledgements The conclusions and opinions presented are my own and do not represent any one else. All errors of commission or omission are mine, and the usual caveats apply. I owe a tremendous debt to over 200 individuals who provided data and expertise in specialized areas of energy technology, supply, and consumption over a several year period. Without this grass roots community contribution, effort and support, this work would not have been possible.

3 Today s s Discussion Discussion of the LA-US MARKAL: Overview of LA-US MARKAL. Modeling of Residential and Commercial End-uses. Modeling of CHP and other DG in the Industrial Sector. Discussion of results. Some wrap-up comments.

4 Advantages of Using a Model Complex systems can be depicted in an understandable form with interactions between components defined. A consistent framework can be used for testing different hypotheses. Large amounts of data can be organized and documented. Different model structures implemented with the same underlying data can provide insights that might be overlooked. However,...the applicability, accuracy, and appropriateness of any model or method for a particular issue or question is a matter of professional judgement. And, All models are wrong...but some models are useful!

5 MARKAL: MarKet Allocation Model Run as a linear program, MARKAL identifies least-cost solutions for energy system planning, and selects among competing technologies based on life-cycle costs. Evaluates options within the context of the entire energy/materials system by: balancing all supply/demand requirements, ensuring proper process/operation, monitoring capital stock turnover, and adhering to environmental & policy restrictions. Establishes baselines and the implications of alternate futures. Provides estimates of: energy/material prices, demand activity, technology and fuel mixes, GHG and other emission levels, and mitigation and control costs.

6 Embedded Assumptions in Linear Programming A linear program is a linear program...is a linear program!! Embedded economic paradigm in a cost minimization framework. The economic paradigm includes: Homogeneous, linear cost functions. Assumption of perfect competition, i.e., large number of economic agents and everybody is a price taker. Ease of entry and exit. All markets are in equilibrium, i.e., market clearing assumed, with perfect foresight. Factors that drive energy use or consumption are energy only. Bias introduced through choice of decision variables (e.g., technologies) for inclusion in the model.

7 Attributes of Model of LA-US MARKAL Technology choice set of over 4500 technologies with a time- horizon out to Expanded set of resources including conventional (e.g., coal, oil, natural gas), renewables (e.g., wind, solar, geothermal, biomass), and unconventional (e.g., methane hydrates, shale oil). Sectoral energy consumption representations include: Commercial building (e.g., HVAC and lighting), and commercial end-uses such as refrigeration, office services, and similar activities. Residential building consumption (e.g., HVAC and lighting), and end-uses such as refrigeration, cooking, and hot water heating. Transportation for personal use (LDVs( LDVs,, SUVs, alternative fueled vehicles); freight haulage; and mass transit. Industrial disaggregated into ten sectors. Nine different emissions types (CO 2, SO 2, NO x, N 2 O, CO, VOC, CH 4, particulates, and mercury) tracked through the economy. Inclusion of demand response to prices and incomes incorporates a response that results in a lower total cost of satisfying energy demand.

8 LA US-MARKAL (continued) Expanded depiction of electricity generation capturing potential interactions between centrally dispatched generation and distributed generation. Over 90 centrally dispatched electricity generation technologies are characterized. Fuel/technology types represented include: Fossil (oil, natural gas, coal, MSW) steam. Combined cycle (natural gas, coal, biomass). Conventional and advanced turbines (fossil and methanol). Renewables including solar, wind, biomass, and waste. Nuclear (light water reactors and MOX), and next generation including HTGR, HTGR-MOX, HTGR-TRU, TRU, Fast-spectrum spectrum TRU, CR-1, and MOX burners, and Accelerator-driven TRU and MA burners. Each end-use sector has a sector-specific specific electricity and heat grid allowing for price competition between DG and central generation. DG is treated as the marginal source Aggregation contracts allow for inter-sectoral trades via the main grid. Complete nuclear fuel cycle including spent nuclear fuel disposal l and reprocessing; the nuclear fuel cycle has been extended to advanced nuclear technologies.

9 Residential and Commercial End-use Sectors Residential: Over 150 end-use technologies are characterized: Miscellaneous appliances, stoves, clothes dryers, clothes washers, s, freezers, refrigerators, dish washers, residential computer equipment, hot water heating HVAC for single and multiple family units including air conditioners ners (room, central, and heat pumps), and heating (central air, hydronics,, electric resistance) Building shell conservation measures Commercial: Over 325 technologies characterized: HVAC including cooling (heat pumps, central and room air), heating (heat pumps, central heating systems, electric resistance), and ventilation. Water heating, stoves, lighting, refrigeration, misc. appliances,, misc. office equipment. Building shell conservation. Thirteen residential end-use demands are depicted; and, nine commercial end-use demands are depicted. Both residential and commercial have the option of using electricity city from central grid generation or from distributed energy sources including renewable and fuel cell generation.

10 Modeling Industrial Sector in LA-US MARKAL Industrial technology data of well over 2400 technologies. Uses a process engineering approach to describe the industrial sector, and physical units of output. This approach has the following advantages: This specification results in a more realistic depiction of the derived demand for industrial energy. More points where industrial energy consumption is reduced by technological improvements and the interactions between different technologies are captured. The platform can be readily used to test for the effects of increases in the energy efficiency of specific industrial technologies, new technologies, or process improvements. Use of physical units for output provides a ready linkage to other economic frameworks. Endogenous estimates of motor drive and similar auxiliary energy services can be generated.

11 Comparison of LA US-MARKAL to NEMS: The Steel Industry NEMS (EIA, 2005) Unit energy consumption per unit of throughput at a process step derived from MECS. No technologies explicitly defined. Technological change defined by application of a productivity factor. LA-US MARKAL Technologies explicitly characterized. Example detail: Steel Integrated 12 BOF technologies Minimills 5 5 EAF technologies Casting 16 ingot, continuous, and net shape/thin slab casting technologies Reheating fur. 8 8 technologies Technological change defined by choices made in technology set on basis of first costs, fixed and variable costs.

12 Process Depiction: Example Iron and Steel Sector

13 Distributed Energy Each end-use sector has a sector-specific specific electricity and steam grid which is connected to the main grid with the option of selling (i.e., inter-sector trade). Each sector or end-use may have more than to 35 CHP/DG technologies using natural gas or renewables or other fossil fuels. Industrial CHP: pass-out turbines (flexible heat/power ratios) and fuel cells. Commercial and residential: microturbines,, fuel cells, reciprocating engines, photovoltaic, and wind. DG and CHP are depicted as the marginal producer in the base case, i.e., these technologies compete in a market niche with central generation and more efficient end-use technologies.

14 Distributed Electricity Generation (DG) versus Central Electricity Generation (CG) Small Distributed Generators Dispatched Central Generation Distributed Generation Clearinghouse Local-Use Distributed Generation Transmission Losses To Grid Transmission Losses To Grid Central Generation Consumption Distributed Generation Consumption from Grid Total Consumption from Grid Total Consumption from DG Total Electricity Consumption

15 For Each End-use Sector: Relationship Between Electricity Demand and Supplies (Base case) A Price/unit Quantity C E Centrally Dispatched Electricity Competition between distributed generation/chp and central generation D B

16 Change in Relative Costs Between Central Generation and Distributed Energy Price/unit A Quantity C E Centrally Dispatched Electricity Decrease in levels of centrally dispatched generation due to change in relative costs between sources. D B

17 Increase in Demand and Changes in Electricity Generation Mix (Over time) Price/unit A A Centrally Dispatched Electricity Quantity C E Increased effective demand met by distributed generation and CHP or central generation or more efficient end-use technologies. D B B

18 Commercial DE Mix Conv. Coal Conv. MSW Conv. Oil Fuel Cell Gas Engine Gas Turbine Micro Turbine Solar PV Quads DE generation 86.8% more than EIA in Year

19 Example Industrial DE Penetration: Steel Industry CHP Penetration in Steel Industry 2.50 Total DG Penetration Estimate 25.5% more than AEO at Gigawatt Coal Fuel Cell Coal Turbine NG Fuel Cell NG Turbine Oil-fired turbine Year

20 Concluding Comments Work to date: Results from LA US-MARKAL indicate higher rates of penetration of CHP and distributed energy into the energy system than NEMS (framework used to generate the Annual Energy Outlook). Possible sources of differences: Addition points of competition between DE and grid-sources of electricity. For example, NEMS only considers DE as an option for space and water heating in the commercial sector; LA US-MARKAL considers DE as an option for electricity for all electricity uses in a sector. Costs of technology for both DE and centrally dispatched technologies. ogies. More detailed specification of end-use use sectors in an optimization framework. Caveats: MARKAL is a linear program. MARKAL is a deterministic framework.