Ecological/Watershed Modeling. Cindy Ryals Taylor Carroll

Transcription

1 Ecological/Watershed Modeling Cindy Ryals Taylor Carroll

2 Defining Models Defining the problem the question Conceptual Model a set of ideas Verbal Model translate into words Mathematical Model translate words into equations

3 Which Model to use? Example: Mono Lake Inflows = Precipitation, Ground Water, and Runoff Outflows = Evaporation What is the question? Explain conceptually? Explained verbally? Explained mathematically?

4 Which Model to use? continued The Question: Example: Can Mono Lake s s ecosystem remain intact while satisfying the need for LA s s water consumption from the Mono Basin?

5 Which Model to use? Example: Mono Lake Inflows = Precipitation, Ground Water, and Runoff Outflows = Evaporation What is the question? Explain conceptually? Explained verbally? Explained mathematically?

6 Which Model to use? continued Conceptual Model Clarify the problem Visualize relationships Answer the question Help with Mathematical model Runoff Evaporation Diversion Ground Water Mono Lake Precip.

7 Which Model to use? Example: Mono Lake Inflows = Precipitation, Ground Water, and Runoff Outflows = Evaporation What is the question? Explain conceptually? Explained verbally? Explained mathematically?

8 Which Model to use? continued Verbal Model: Mono Lake s s water level is decreasing at a rate of 1 foot/yr and endangering the existence of several species. Ecological concerns Translate into management actions Time scale Watershed concerns Supply to LA Time scale

9 Which Model to use? Example: Mono Lake Inflows = Precipitation, Ground Water, and Runoff Outflows = Evaporation What is the question? Explain conceptually? Explained verbally? Explained mathematically?

10 Which Model to use? continued Mathematical Model: Lake Level = Volume + Inputs Outputs How to decide which level? Time scale? LA s s water?

11 Ecological and Watershed Models Scale individual, species, community, ecosystem watershed, basin, sub-basin, basin, reach Ecological Resources Clean water, forests, primary production, natural biological diversity, aquatic environment Watershed Management Land use, soils, elevation, geology, climate Economics

12 Ecological and Watershed Models - Scale Scale is linked to ecological indicators Location and size - stakeholders How large are the effects? Reach, sub-basin, basin, basin, watershed Where are the sources of the problem?

13 Ecological and Watershed Models Ecological Resources Ecological Model Existing resources Trophic levels Species Time Scale Species Species interactions Data availability What is the ecological objective? Urban v. rural watershed

14 Ecological and Watershed Models Ecological Resources Ecological indicators:

15 Brede R., Jutland, pre-1991 restoration (Brookes and Shields, 1996)

16 Brede River, Jutland, post-1991 restoration (Brookes and Shields, 1996) Change of form

17 Ecological and Watershed Models Ecological Resources Conceptual Relevance: Is the indicator relevant to the assessment question (management concern) and to the ecological resource or function at risk? Feasibility of Implementation: Are the methods for sampling and measuring the environmental variables technically feasible, appropriate, and efficient for use in a monitoring program? Response Variability: Are human errors of measurement and natural variability over time and space sufficiently understood and documented? Interpretation and Utility: Will the indicator convey information on ecological condition that is meaningful to environmental decisionmaking?

18 Ecological and Watershed Models Watershed Management Integration between watershed management and ecological integrity is needed Watershed Management Land use, soils, elevation, geology, climate: How do these affect ecology?

19 Ecological and Watershed Models Economics Economic factors biggest bang for buck Stakeholders Longevity Publicity

20 Watershed Assessments (W-ERA) Watershed assessments integrate the watershed approach with ecological risk assessment to increases the use of environmental monitoring and assessment data in watershed scale decision making. Watershed methods are developed based on experiences from watershed assessments and other relevant scientific literature. -USEPA

21 W-ERA s Uses specified ecological endpoints and Conceptual Site Model Encourages interactions between scientists and decision-makers Focuses on multiple stressors Identifies link between land use/watershed scale management and ecological indicators

22 USEPA:

23 W-ERA Example: Clinch and Powell Valley Watershed Ecological Risk Assessment Problem: coal mining activities and agricultural practices, past t and present, are having adverse impacts on stream habitats, resulting in unacceptable able losses of valuable and rare native fish and mussels. Measure: Used fish Index of Biotic Integrity as indicator of mussel sel species richness based on pilot study. Model results: Found that percent pasture area, percent crop land, and proximity to active mining, urban areas, or major transportation routes accounted for more than half of the variance in fish IBI scores. Native fish and mussel populations appeared to be at greatest risk as more stressors co-occurred. occurred. Conclusion: prompt implementation of practical risk-lowering actions, such as reclaiming abandoned mines, spill prevention, excluding livestock k from streams, and establishing riparian vegetation zones, can mitigate these adverse effects in the future.

24 Examples of Models (1) HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program- FORTRAN) Distributed by USEPA MS-DOS Basin-scale scale model Incorporates land runoff with in-stream hydrology and sediment-chemical interactions Provides water quality and quantity data for any point in the watershed, including chemical products from hydrolysis, oxidation, photolysis, biodegradation, volatilization, and sorption

25 Examples of Models (2) ATLSS (Across Trophic Level System Simulation) -USGS, Linux Integrates models for 3 trophic levels: (1) process models for lower trophic levels (including benthic insects, periphyton and zooplankton), (2) structured population models for five functional groups of fish and macroinvertebrates, and (3) individual-based models for large consumers (wood storks, great blue herons, white ibis, American alligators, white-tailed tailed deer, and Florida panther). -Coupled with GIS -Applied for Florida Everglades Restoration

26 ATLSS (continued)

27 ATLSS (continued)

28 ATLSS (cont d) Example output: Breeding Potential Index as measure of sparrow health based on different hydrologic scenarios Comparison of panther movement patterns for wet and dry seasons Viewing geographic and gender patterns of causes of panther mortality, such as highway mortality and mortality by intraspecific aggression

29 ATLSS (cont d) Directions for further development: Include more trophic levels, nutrient fluxes Include vegetative response to disturbance regimes Continued integration of models

30 Examples of Models (3) Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) Based on GEM (General Ecosystem Model) Incorporates ecological and socioeconomic factors with land use change at watershed scale Allows for variations in spatial and temporal scale

31 Patuxent Landscape Model

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33 Hydrology of GEM GEM

34 PLM (cont d) Example outputs: Photosynthetic biomass Net primary production Phosphates

35 Gaps between Watershed Management and Ecological Modeling How to connect environmental conditions with populations of plants and animals? Ecological info scarce. Often times, hydrological (chemistry) info is also scarce. Indicators of ecological health-- (see handout from 1 st week)

36 Gaps between watershed management and ecology One of the principal challenges in applying ecological risk assessment to watershed management and decision making is the need for a framework for characterizing risks that involve numerous stressors, interconnected pathways, and multiple endpoints. -USEPA

37 Management practices Detention structures -- Brush management Education -- Flood control Reforestation -- Water allocation Their effect: Water quality for people, critters Water flows Species present Availability of water for people, critters Both terrestrial and aquatic communities

38 How to apply ecological considerations in the context of this class?

39 How to apply ecological considerations in the context of this class? Consider using ecological risk-based concentrations as a basis for npdes permit development and BMP planning. Connect watershed management action with the ecology on which it is imposed Include stakeholders who are concerned with the ecological aspects of the watershed

40 For more information Grid-based ecological multi-modelling modelling; ; integration of various models Canadian Environmental Modeling Center EPA exposure assessment/surface water models Southwest Florida Water Management District Linked Watershed Waterbody Model Illinois Watershed Management Clearinghouse; questions to ask when assessing a watershed model EPA Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program ATLSS model homepage