CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR ALBERTA MUNICIPALITIES. Edmonton: March 11 th, 2014 Calgary: March 14 th, 2014

Transcription

1 CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR ALBERTA MUNICIPALITIES Edmonton: March 11 th, 2014 Calgary: March 14 th, 2014

2 INTRODUCTIONS

3 Objectives for the day Build capacity and raise awareness of: o Climate trends and projections for your region and why they might matter to your municipality; o How to effectively plan for the threats and opportunities of a changing climate; and o How some municipalities in Alberta are building climate resilience.

4 Agenda for the day o o o Building climate resilience Climate science Climate impacts today and tomorrow Exercise: identify weather and climate impacts on municipalities o Prioritizing climate risk and opportunities Exercise: identify priority risks and opportunities o Action planning Exercise: identify and prioritize resiliency actions o Closing and wrap-up

5 BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE

6 Record breaking weather events

7 Trend in natural disasters worldwide Source: 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2012

8 Trend in natural disasters in Canada Source: Canadian Disasters Database, Public Safety Canada for events 1, and 3-7. We have inserted the 2013 floods in Southern Alberta at 2.

9 How does Alberta fare? Source: Environment Canada, Atlas of Canada. Source: Environment Canada, Atlas of Canada.

10 How does Alberta fare? Rank Event type Affected area Year Cost ($2011) 1 Storm Ontario to New Brunswick 1998 $6 billion 2 Flood Calgary and Southern Alberta 2013 $3-6 billion 3 Storm Calgary 1991 $1.2b billion 4 Flood Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan 2010 $900 million 5 Drought Prairie provinces 1990 $890 million 6 Drought Prairie provinces 1992 $830 million 7 Wildfire Slave Lake and area 2011 $700 million Source: Canadian Disasters Database, Public Safety Canada for events 1, and 3-7. We have inserted the 2013 floods in Southern Alberta at 2.

11 Why build resilience? Why build resilience now? Why build resilience? o Municipalities are not well prepared for current climatic conditions and we can expect further changes ( adaptation deficit ) o Municipalities particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, given the density of people, assets, and infrastructure within a relatively small area Why build resilience now? o Proactive (before the event) measures are much cheaper and have less social impact than reactive (after the event) measures o Some actions are complex, require greater understanding, and have long lead times

12 What do we mean by a climate resilient municipality? Municipal service Level of service before event Time Adapted from Insurance Bureau of Australia

13 What do we mean by a climate resilient municipality? Municipal service Climate event Unprepared municipality Level of service before event Service heavily impacted post event Impaired service level before recovery actions Post-event reduced service Slow and costly recovery Time Adapted from Insurance Bureau of Australia

14 What do we mean by a climate resilient municipality? Municipal service Unprepared municipality Climate event Level of service before event Costs of climate event Time Adapted from Insurance Bureau of Australia

15 What do we mean by a climate resilient municipality? Municipal service Resilient & adapted municipality Climate event Reduced exposure and sensitivity so impact on community not as severe Shorter duration of impaired service levels Faster and more cost-efficient recovery Restored service level Time Adapted from Insurance Bureau of Australia

16 What do we mean by a climate resilient municipality? Municipal service Residual costs of climate event Resilient and adapted municipality Benefits of building resilience and adapting to climate change Unprepared municipality Time Adapted from Insurance Bureau of Australia

17 How to build a resilient municipality numerous guidebooks

18 How to build a resilient municipality numerous approaches

19 How to build resiliency generic approach Resiliency planning and implement are rarely one-offs iterative sequence of planning, implementation, monitor, review Define context Implementation Assess risks Formulate actions Resiliency planning should not be considered in isolation integral part of sustainable development, land-use planning, emergency management, utility services, etc.

20 How to build resiliency generic approach Action plan Implement Monitor, evaluate, review Define context Scope Operational activities Geographical area Time horizon Relevant stakeholders Climate data Evaluation framework Implementation Assess risks Set resiliency goals Identify actions Prioritize actions Formulate actions Identification Analysis Evaluation

21 Tiered-approach to climate resilience planning Light touch risk screening Assess risks Specific, more detailed qualitative assessment (refines actions and their appraisal) Specific quantitative assessment (to inform decision analysis) 1 1 Prioritize actions 2 3 Identify actions 2 3

22 CLIMATE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS

23 CLIMATE IMPACTS TODAY AND TOMORROW

24 Weather & Climatic Impact Pathway WEATHER & CLIMATE DIRECT EFFECTS Temperature: increased mean, minimum and maximum, more heat waves, fewer cold days and frost Precipitation: increased mean annual, decrease in summer, increase in intense precipitation events INDIRECT EFFECTS (e.g. streamflow, flood, drought grass/forest fire, storms, reduced lake levels, reduced snowpack and glaciers, etc.), POSITIVE & NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON MUNICIPALITIES 1. Health & safety 2. Tourism & recreation 3. Transportation 4. Water resources 5. Agriculture & food 6. Built environment

25 Health and safety potential climate impacts Air pollution Respiratory diseases Water quality Vector-borne diseases Pathogens West Nile Lyme disease Illness Temperature Extreme cold days, cold spells Excess winter mortality Precipitation Extreme heat, heat waves Excess summer mortality Food poisoning Heat exhaustion Mortality Grass fire Fatalities Extreme weather events Flooding Ice rain, blizzards Serious injuries Minor injuries Mental health T-storms, hail

26 PRIORITIZING RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

27 How to build resiliency prioritizing risks & opportunities Define context Scope Operational activities Geographical area Time horizon Relevant stakeholders Climate data Evaluation framework Implementation Assess risks To prioritize risks and opportunities Formulate actions Identification Analysis Evaluation

28 Framework to evaluate climate risk simple model Weather and climate Consequence x Likelihood Climate risk

29 Framework to evaluate climate risk simple model Risk event or risk scenario Weather and climate Scale to describe the likelihood of suffering that level of consequence Consequence x Likelihood Scale to describe the level of consequence of a risk event should it happen Climate risk rating Way to assign priority rating, given this consequence and likelihood

30 Framework to evaluate climate risk more complicated Climate stressor Exposure to hazard Sensitivity to hazard Potential impacts Adaptive capacity Economic wealth Technology Information Institutions Equity Vulnerability score x Likelihood Climate risk rating

31 Creating a consequence scale simple model Public health and safety Environmental health Infrastructure and service Financial cost and economy Step 1: Identify success criteria for municipality s longterm vision (4 to 6) Enables one to describe level of consequence of climate risk event for municipality's long-term vision Not one-size-fits-all!!

32 Creating a consequence scale simple model Descriptor Public health and safety Environmental health Infrastructure and service Financial cost and economy 5 Catastrophic or Extreme Major Moderate Minor Insignificant or incidental Step 2: describe how badly the risk would affect each criteria using a (3, 5, 7, 10) point scale, ranging from: o Level that would constitute complete failure e.g., catastrophic to o Level that would attract no attention e.g., insignificant

33 Creating a consequence scale simple model Descriptor Public health Environmental Public health and safety and safety health Infrastructure Financial cost and Environmental service and health economy 5 Catastrophic or Extreme Significant number of people impacted, multiple fatalities, serious injuries, illnesses, requiring hospitalizations Widespread, irreversible loss of environmental assets, permanent loss of recreational sites 4 Major 3 Moderate 2 1 Minor Insignificant or incidental Step 3: draft descriptions that will be understood by stakeholders (using numbers is optional) HINT: Start with worst outcome and progress to least

34 Creating a consequence scale simple model Descriptor Public health Environmental Public health and safety and safety health Infrastructure Financial cost and Environmental service and health economy 5 Catastrophic or Extreme Significant number of people impacted, multiple fatalities, serious injuries or illnesses, requiring hospitalizations Widespread, irreversible loss of environmental assets, permanent loss of recreational sites 4 Major Isolated instances of fatalities, serious injuries or illnesses, with some hospitalizations 3 Moderate Small number affected, no fatalities or serious injuries, some injuries or illnesses needing outpatient care 2 Minor 1 Insignificant or incidental Appearance of threat, but no actual injuries, illnesses or fatalities No noticeable environmental damage, or interruption to recreational opportunities

35 Creating a likelihood scale Descriptor Almost certain Likely Possible Unlikely Remote Simple qualitative scale (no numbers!!) Extreme ends of scale: o Risk events that almost certain to happen and o Risk events that are almost, but not quite, certain not to happen

36 Creating a likelihood scale Can also express likelihood as % probability or frequency over time horizon of analysis Descriptor Single events (e.g., species loss) Recurrent events (e.g., extreme events) 5 Almost certain Highly probable, virtually certain probability greater than 90% 90% chance or higher of occurring in any year (~1 in 1 year event) 4 Likely Likely, probable probability 60 to 90% 50% chance of occurring in any year (1 in 2 year event) 3 Possible About as likely as not probability 40 to 60% 20% chance of occurring in any year (1 in 5 year event) 2 Unlikely Less likely than not, but still appreciable probability 10 to 40% 5% chance of occurring in any year (1 in 20 year event) 1 Remote Very unlikely, improbable probability small, less than 10% 1% chance or less of occurring in any year (1 in 100 year event)

37 Risk rating matrix or heat map HINT: assessment conducted using surveys, one-on-one interviews, cross-functional workshops (voting software) Tolerable risk Unacceptable risk INSIGNIFICANT MINOR SIGNIFICANT MAJOR EXTREME ALMOST CERTAIN Medium Medium High Critical Critical LIKELY Low Medium High High Critical POSSIBLE Low Medium Medium High High UNLIKELY Low Low Medium Medium High REMOTE Low Low Low Low Medium

38 Risk Prioritization Task Considering the risks identified in morning: What are the 3 most important weather and climate risks facing your community? Place one dot next to one risk on wall chart Consider: Why is it a high priority risk? Consequence & likelihood of risks

39 ACTION PLANNING

40 How to build resiliency action planning Define context Implementation Assess risks Formulate actions Set resiliency goals Identify actions Prioritize actions

41 What are adaptation actions? Any action taken in response to the effects of existing or expected future climatic conditions, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities SOFT o o o o o Information: updated mapping of who is at risk, early warning systems for those at risk, public education Preparedness: plans for clearing flood debris, helping people get back on their feet Planning: controlling (re)developments in risk-prone areas Managed retreat; policies to remove or exchange developments in risk-prone areas for less sensitive land-uses Risk transfer: purchase appropriate insurance HARD o o Infrastructure: constructing, upgrading and maintaining flood defenses, pumps, enhancing wetlands, restoring natural watercourses Property-level measures: installing flood-resilient measures to individual properties

42 Simple procedure to identify actions Priority risk Water supply-demand imbalances Adaptation goal Identify current adaptation actions to achieve this goal Existing adaptation actions How do these actions need to be improved to deal with today s climate? Additional actions? Enhanced existing actions or new actions Expand and diversify water supply Increase usable storage in reservoirs Water use conservation & efficiency Changing building codes to include low flow plumbing fixtures Changing water pricing structures Providing financial incentives for switching to more efficient equipment and processes Providing information to encourage conservation behaviors How do these actions need to be improved to deal with projected climate change? Additional actions? Long-list of actions

43 Qualitative screening of actions standard criteria Long-list of actions Is the action: o Coherent with other policies, programs? o Technically (design, implementation) feasible? o Affordable? o Effective? o Acceptable? o Equitable? Obviously not suitable actions at this time Potentially suitable actions at this time

44 Qualitative screening of actions to allow for uncertainty Potentially suitable actions at this time Prioritize robust actions: o Are the actions obviously no-regrets and low-regrets? Providing risk information, monitoring, early warning systems Reducing leakage, water conservation, grey water recycling o Do you have sufficient information or confidence in the that information to make a decision? o Is formal analysis needed for approvals (e.g., CBA, EIA, etc.)?

45 CLOSING

46 Climate Resilience Action Planning Group Exercise Discussion: 1. How are you currently dealing with this risk in your community? 2. How effective are existing actions and how can they be improved? 3. What additional action is needed to reduce the risk? Task: 1. What are the top 3 actions municipalities can take to reduce the risk? Why?

47 Closing Discussion 1. What support would you need to begin/continue climate adaptation planning in your community? Scientific? Communication? Technical? Planning? Financial?