Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessment in Canada: An Engineering Strategy for Adaptation David Lapp, FEC, P.Eng.

Transcription

1 Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessment in Canada: An Engineering Strategy for Adaptation David Lapp, FEC, P.Eng. Practice Lead, Globalization and Sustainable Development Adaptation Canada 2016: Vulnerability Analysis of Complex Systems Advances for the Built Environment and Urban Planning Ottawa, ON April 12, 2016

2 What is Engineers Canada? STRUCTURE National organization for the engineering profession in Canada Members - 12 engineering regulators that regulate the practice of engineering e.g. Professional Engineers Ontario (PEO) Over 280,000 professional engineers in Canada FUNCTIONS Common approaches for professional qualifications, professional practice and ethical conduct Accredits all undergraduate engineering programs in Canada 271 programs in 43 universities National and international voice of the profession Climate change work since focus on infrastructure adaptation and resilience 2

3 Climate Resilience Operational capacity Climate event Unprepared community Operational capacity of individuals, business, public services, etc. Community heavily impacted Slow and costly recovery Post-event reduced operational capacity and prosperity Time Adapted from Insurance Bureau of Australia

4 Climate Resilience Operational capacity Climate event Resilient and adapted community Impact on community not as severe Faster and more cost-efficient recovery Restored operational capacity Time Adapted from Insurance Bureau of Australia

5 5 of 32

6 Interdependencies 6 of 32

7 Climate and Other Factors can Combine Combination of events can exacerbate the vulnerability Events can occur in rapid succession Events can add together Extreme rainfall + hail Management or maintenance practices can intensify impacts Infrequent culvert clearing + severe rain Change of use can intensify impacts Urbanization changes in drainage regime increased drainage flow

8 Small Increases Lead to Escalating Infrastructure Damage

9 Critical Ice Storm Thresholds Failures under Extreme Ice Storms - freezing rain (mm) Communication towers Transmission line failures Distribution line failures ice loads Distribution Line Outages tree breakage mm > Slippery roads <10

10 Capacity Load How do Small Changes Lead to Catastrophic Failure? Failure Design Capacity Safety Factor Impact of age on structure Impact of unforeseen weathering Design Load Change of use over time e.g. population growth Severe climate event 10 of 32

11 Load Safety Margin Capacity Load Some Definitions Load Exceeds Capacity Engineering Resiliency Engineering Vulnerability Resiliency If a safety margin between forecast capacity and forecast load is predicted, then this identifies potential for future nonfailure condition This margin of additional capacity is called engineering resiliency Vulnerability Engineering design forecasts both the load and capacity of a structure If a gap between forecast capacity and forecast load is predicted, a potential future failure condition exists Such a gap is called an engineering vulnerability

12 From an Infrastructure Planning, Design and Operations Perspective Past climate is not a good predictor of the future Current Trend The Past is the Future Un-quantified Risk 12 of 32

13 Defining the Risk Risk (R) is defined as the product of the probability (P) of an event and the severity (S) of that event should it occur. R = P X S

14 Risk Assessment Matrix Consequence Probability of Occurrence 14 of 32

15 Probability of Occurrence The probability of extreme changes in climate parameters INCREASES INCREASE MEAN IN and MEAN VARIANCE Previous Current New Climate New Climate Climate More More Hot Weather Hot Weather More Record Less Cold Cold Hot Hot Weather Weather Weather COLD AVERAGE HOT Increasing Variability 15

16 PIEVC Engineering Protocol: a risk screening tool Five step evaluation process A tool derived from standard risk management methodologies Intended for use by qualified engineering professionals Requires contributions from those with pertinent local knowledge and experience Focused on the principles of vulnerability and resiliency 16 of 32

17 5 Steps plus an Optional TBL Module 17 of 32

18 PIEVC Master Results Matrix

19 45 Projects and Counting Water resources systems Storm & waste water systems Roads & bridges Buildings Transportation infrastructure Energy Infrastructure

20 Infrastructure Ontario (2012 Study) Example of Recommendations, St. Catharines Site 20 of X

21 Projects Underway and Recently Completed Metrolinx Transit System Assessment of Six Assets Three Northern Canada Airports Inuvik, Cambridge Bay and Churchill Nanimo Health Care Facility Assessment City of Montreal Stormwater and Wastewater System Assessment Manitoba to Nunavut Transportation Supply Routes Toronto Hydro Electrical Distribution System Three Infrastructure assets in NL (road, building and bridge)

22 Lessons Learned from Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessments Several common issues: Intensity short duration precipitation is almost always a concern Infrastructure systems are almost always vulnerable to interruptions in power supply Severe weather events can disrupt power supply and have significant impact on the serviceability of your infrastructure Combinations of events can have more impact than discrete events Rain on snow High snowfall followed by rapid thaw Highway 404 in Toronto, Ontario July 27, 2014 Image: Global News

23 Lessons Learned from Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessments Meteorological data used in design can often be very dated IDF curves based on 1960s precipitation data Regional climate expertise is always better Climate specialists from distant locations may not be conversant with local weather phenomena Multidisciplinary teams are very important. Teams should comprise: Fundamental understanding of risk and risk assessment processes Directly relevant engineering knowledge of the infrastructure Climatic and meteorological expertise relevant to the region Hands-on operation experience with the infrastructure Hands-on management knowledge with infrastructure Local knowledge and history Image: CBC

24 Summary of Important Observations A small change can have a dramatic impact Design safety margins may not last through the full operational life of an infrastructure system Margins may be consumed by day-to-day uses/activities Failure often arises from a combination of events Many of which we do not normally monitor Climate change can affect both the load and capacity of a structure Smaller measures can mitigate risk if we act early Changes in maintenance practice Measuring and monitoring 24 of X

25 Climate Change impacts are challenging, they occur over long time scales, constantly shift in rate and geographic scope. Responding to Uncertainties Don t develop complete adaptation strategies based on near term Focus instead on staged transitions to higher levels of intervention as mission-critical thresholds are reached Assessing vulnerabilities is key! Image: Maryland SHA

26 Important Considerations Some adaptations to mitigate risk can be quite minor but important to know where your vulnerabilities lie: Sometimes just change in maintenance or procedures Sometimes additional monitoring for critical triggers (storm flows, stream flows) 26 of X

27 Functionali ty Adaptive measures that also recover functionality Extreme Event $ $$ $$$ With adaptive measures that do not recover functionality Repairs / Rehabilitation to restore functionality after the event Deterioration curve under no-event service life Time Service Life of Infrastructure Adapted from McAllister, T.P. (2013) Developing Guidelines and Standards for Disaster Resilience of the Built Environment: A Research Needs Assessment, NIST TN 1795, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD,

28 Professional Practice Guidelines - Incorporating Climate Resilience in the Design of Public Infrastructure in British Columbia April 2016

29 Benefits of Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessment Identify nature and severity of risks to components Optimize more detailed engineering analysis Quick identification of most obvious vulnerabilities Structured, documented and robust approach that ensures consistency and accountability due diligence Adjustments to design, operations and maintenance Application to new designs, retrofitting, rehabilitation and operations and maintenance Reviews and adjustments of codes, standards and engineering practices 29

30 Building infrastructure today without considering future climate impacts is incorporating vulnerabilities that will later cause service disruptions and failures thus increasing costs to government, the private sector and users. 30 of 37

31 For more information: ext 240 engineerscanada.ca 31 of X