Laying the Foundation for the Next Generation of Clean Energy Jobs. John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University August 6, 2009

Transcription

1 Laying the Foundation for the Next Generation of Clean Energy Jobs John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University August 6, 2009

2 Economic Competitiveness in a Clean Energy Economy Price of oil will go up in the coming decades We will live in a carbonconstrained world Wayne Gretzky: I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where its been.

3 We are Dependent on Foreign Oil 25 Million barrels per day Consumption Production US became a net oil importer in the 1940s

4 U.S. Falling Behind in Clean Energy Race China is spending $12.6 million every hour on clean energy investment. We rank behind Spain, Denmark, and Portugal in the use of wind power. 99 percent of the batteries that power America s hybrid cars are made in Japan.

5 U.S. Falling Behind in Clean Energy Race We are also behind in other energy technologies: Automobile fuel efficiency Batteries Electricity Transmission Power Electronics Nuclear Power U.S. Worldwide shipments of Solar Photovoltaics in Megawatts

6 Temperature Record ( ) From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 assessment 6

7 Global Sea Level: 2007 IPCC Technical Summary Past 2000 years: mm/year : 0.6 mm/year : 3.0mm/year (including recent satellite data)

8 We are at Risk of Adverse Climate Change Carbon Dioxide Concentration during the past 800,000 years 8

9 Heavy downpours have increased across the nation and are projected to increase further Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation (1958 to 2007) 9

10 Projected changes in Precipitation by 2090s 10

11 The chance of Fertile Land becoming Desert 11

12 Days above 90 and 100 degrees in Boston by 2100 From about 9 days per year above 90 degrees -- to about 65 days From about 1 day per year above 100 degrees -- to about 24 days 12

13 The permafrost is beginning to thaw (Carbon that could be released is more than double the amount currently in the atmosphere) Zimov et al., Science. 312:

14 We need a new industrial revolution to ensure American competitiveness, decrease our dependency on foreign oil, and mitigate climate change. The United States has the opportunity to be the innovation leader. The message

15 To seize this opportunity, we need a system of clean energy incentives Chairman Markey s leadership led to passage of historic energy and climate legislation in the House

16 President Obama: More than 80% reduction by U.S. Emissions Reductions Under Waxman-Markey (H.R. 2454) Business As Usual 7000 M illio n m e tric to n s C O 2e Waxman-Markey Cap

17 A Clean Energy Transition is Affordable Three analyses confirm the Waxman-Markey approach would cost about a postage stamp per household per day Congressional Budget Office: About 44 a day in 2020 Environmental Protection Agency: About a day - annualized average through 2050 Energy Information Administration: About 37 a day in 2020

18 A Clean Energy Transition Will Create Jobs Jobs Supported in DOE s 20% Wind by 2030 Scenario Over 500,000 total jobs would be supported by the wind industry } Approx. 180,000 jobs supported directly by the wind industry in operations, construction, and manufacturing

19 To achieve our energy and climate goals, we need: To use energy more wisely

20 McKinsey: Energy Efficiency could exceed the Waxman- Markey 2020 emissions reduction target of 17%. at a savings of $680 B, based on Net Present Value estimate

21 Savings from Energy Efficiency Savings

22 Regulation stimulates technology: Refrigerator efficiency standards and performance. Energy savings is greater than all of US renewable energy. Regulation of consumer electronics and computers can save a similar amount of energy.

23 White roofed buildings: Sunlight energy is reflected back into space rather than heating up buildings and homes in the summer. Air conditioning bills can be reduced by up to 20%. Dallas, Texas Santorini, Greece Retrofitting urban roofs and pavements with solarreflective materials is equal to eliminating carbon emissions from all automobiles for 11 years.

24 Buildings consume 40% of energy in U.S.: A new way of designing and constructing buildings. Conceptual Design Detailed Design Operation Virtual Building integration Construction & Installation Computer-aided design tools with Embedded Energy Analysis Continuous real-time commissioning Computer-controlled operation with Sensors and Controls for Real-Time Optimization Oxygen sensor Air pressure sensor Air temperature sensor Engine temp. sensor Throttle position sensor Knock sensor

25 To achieve our energy and climate goals, we need: To use energy more wisely To deploy the low-carbon technologies we have

26 20% of our energy can be supplied by wind but we need a better transmission and distribution system m 6 MW generator (126 m diameter rotors). Betts Limit: 16/27 (~0.59) of kinetic energy of air flow

27 Nuclear Fission provides carbonfree base-load power Gen III+ reactors (e.g. AP 1000): Natural circulation Passive safety Decreased number of components means lower cost The nuclear waste issue is solvable. Nuclear proliferation is a concern and requires international cooperation.

28 To achieve our energy and climate goals, we need: To use energy more wisely To deploy the low-carbon technologies we have To discover the breakthroughs we need

29 Another example of a transformative technology An essential component transcontinental telephone line was the vacuum tube. Vacuum tubes generated a lot of heat and burned out. AT&T Bell Laboratories invested heavily in improving vacuum tubes. They also embarked on a research program to develop a solid state replacement to the vacuum tube.

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31 Energy densities of chemical fuels and the best commercial battery Mj / liter A rechargeable battery that can last for 5,000 deep discharges and 5x higher storage capacity will electrify personal vehicle transportation Body Fat 38 Mj/kg 35 Mj/liter Kerosene, jet fuel 43 Mj/kg 32 Mj/liter Lithium ion battery 0.54 Mj/kg 0.9 Mj/liter Mj / kg

32 Question: What does a Boeing 777 have in common with a Bar-tailed Godwit? Bar-tailed Godwit Boeing 777 Answer: Both can fly non-stop 11,000 km. At take-off, the fuel weighs ~ 50% of their total weight.

33 US, China, Russia, and India have 2/3 of the world s known coal reserves. International collaboration in carbon capture and storage will accelerate deployment of CCS technologies.

34 Feedstock grasses such as Miscanthus can be energy crops. Non-fertilized, non-irrigated test field at U. Illinois yielded 15x more ethanol / acre than corn. 50 M acres of energy crops, plus agricultural and urban wastes can produce 1/2 of current US consumption of gasoline. Entire metabolic pathways were introduced into yeast to produce gasoline and diesel-like fuels.

35 Joint BioEnergy Institute (JBEI): an example of an Energy Innovation Hub or Bell Lab-let Six Partners Lawrence Berkeley National Lab UC Berkeley Sandia National Lab UC Davis Carnegie Institute at Stanford Lawrence Livermore Nat l Lab Science and Technology Divisions Feedstocks Deconstruction Fuels Synthesis Single location Within one year, entire metabolic pathways were introduced into yeast so that it produced gasoline and diesel-like fuels.

36 Energy research and development Energy Frontier Research Centers (Mostly university sponsored research that stimulated collaborations with different groups) Advanced Research Projects Agency Energy (ARPA-E) (Short term, high risk-high reward research) Energy Innovation Hubs ( Bell Lab-lets )

37 Earthrise from Apollo 8 (December 24, 1968) "We came all this way to explore the moon and the most important thing is that we discovered the Earth. Bill Anders, Apollo 8 Astronaut