Uncertainties in Sustainable Development of Hydropower Projects in Uttarakhand (India)

Transcription

1 Uncertainties in Sustainable Development of Hydropower Projects in Uttarakhand (India) M.L. Kansal JPSSChair Professor (Hydro power) power), Professor Sanchit Saran Agarwal (Research Scholar) Department of Water Resources Development & Management Indian Institute tute of Technology ogy Roorkee, Roorkee February, 2015

2 India s Power Scenario Thermal Hydro Power Total Installed Capacity MW Nuclear Source: Solar PV

3 Impact of Hydropower Projects Storage based Hydro Power Projects Run of River Hydro Power Projects Advantages Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages Renewable & Reliable Adverse impact on fisheries, Clean source of energy Limitation of capacity Source of energy flora & fauna downstream Comparatively less expansion depending Cheaper source of Changes in environmental impact on environment upon the size of river. energy No fuel cost flows at D/S & uncomfortable No greenhouse gas Impact on river Increased dependability conditions for aquatic life emission ecology & water of flow in river results in Potential of more greenhouse Less impact on river quality in some cases i. Better Irrigation & gas emission ecology, environmental Environmental flows hence Food dsecurity Rehabilitation ti & Resettlement t flows & water quality issue in some cases. ii. Reliable & Adequate of human beings No R & R issues Drinking Water Loss of cultural heritage No loss of places of Supply monuments, place of worship religious and cultural Flood Control Impact on the existing power importance Employment infrastructure such as Generation transmission & distribution Recreational Water lines. Activities

4 Uttarakhand Hydropower Scenario Basins Above 25 MW Below 25 MW Catchment Area Potential Installed Capacity Potential Installed Capacity (sq. km.) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) Alaknanda Bhagirathi Ganga Sub Basin Ramganga Sharda Yamuna TOTAL

5 Risk & Uncertainties in Construction of Hydropower Projects Geological Uncertainties Hydrological Uncertainties Social Issues Accidental Injuries Locational Uncertainties ti Man made Risks Terrorist, war, etc.

6 List of Major Hydropower Projects under Construction in Uttarakhand S.No. Name of Station Name of River Installed Capacity (MW) Type 1 Tapovan Vishnugad Dhauliganga Alaknanda 520 Run of River 2 Lata Tapovan Dhauliganga Alaknanda 171 Run of River 3 Tehri Bhagirathi 1000 Pump Storage 4 Shrinagar Alaknanda 330 Storage 5 Phata Byung Mandakini 76 Storage 6 Singoli Bhatwari Mandakini 99 Run of River 7 Vishnugad Pipalkoti Alaknanda 444 Storage Delay in Construction ti of Hydropower Project OR Mass Agitation/Protests Contractual delays Cash flow constraints Poor geological studies Natural Calamity Contractor issues BE1 BE2 BE3 BE4 OR BE8 Fault Tree depicting causes of delay in Construction of Hydropower Project Heavy Rainfall/ Cloud burst Earthquake Flood BE5 BE6 BE7 Source: (2014)

7 Decision Making Process under Risk & Uncertainty ANALYSIS IDENTIFICATION RISK MANAGEMENT CONTROL REVIEW CONTROLS

8 The concept of Fuzzy Set Theory was introduced by Lotfi A. Zadeh in Trapezoidal Fuzzy Number (a 1, a 2, a 3, a 4 ) μ A (x) 0 x a 1 a 2 a 1 1 a 4 x a 4 a 3 0 ; x ; a 1 ; a 2 ; x a 1 x x ; a 3 x a 3 a 2 a 3 a 4 Expert opinion in terms of fuzzy numbers representing possibility of occurrence of uncertainty factors Uncertainty/ Risk Factors Basic Event Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3 a1 a2 a3 a4 a1 a2 a3 a4 a1 a2 a3 a4 Mass Agitation/Protests Contractual Delays Cash Flow Constraints Poor Geological Studies Heavy Rainfall Earthquake Flood Contractor Issues

9 Hurwicz Criterion Hurwiczcriterionisdesigned criterion is to reflect the decision making attitude, ranging from most optimistic to the most pessimistic: H (criterion of realism) = η (Minimum of project delay possibility) + (1 η) (Maximum of project dl delay possibility) bl where, η is index of optimism, η=0 indicates conservative (pessimistic) approach, η =0.5 indicates equal weightage g (Laplace(Neutral) criterion) and η=1 represents (optimistic) approach Approximated expert opinion Basic event Approximated Fuzzy Number (Laplace) Approximated Fuzzy Number (Optimistic) Approximated Fuzzy Number (Pessimistic) a1 a2 a3 a4 a1 a2 a3 a4 a1 a2 a3 a

10 Fuzzy OR Operation Df Defuzzification (Centroid Mthd) Method) Output depicting possibility of delay in construction of Hydropower projects Possibility of delay in Hydropower project construction Future scenario De fuzzified a1 a2 a3 a4 output Laplace Criterion Optimistic Approach Pessimistic Approach

11 Fuzzy Importance Index F T : Failure possibility of Top event i.e. Delay in construction of project F i : Failure possibility of Top event when i th basic event BE i does not occur Calculating the distance between F T = (a 1, a 2, a 3, a 4 ) and F i = (a i1, a i2, a i3, a i4 ) FII (BE i ) = (a 1 a i1 ) + (a 2 a i2 ) + (a 3 a i3 ) + (a 4 a i4 ) FII (BE i ) denotes the fuzzy importance index of Basic Event i Fuzzy Importance Index of risk & uncertainty factors Basic event Laplace Criterion Optimistic Approach Pessimistic Approach Fuzzy importance index Rank Fuzzy importance index Rank Fuzzy importance index Rank Mass Agitation/Protests Contractual Delays Cash Flow Constraints Poor Geological Studies Heavy Rainfall/Flood Earthquake Contractor issues

12 Concluding Remarks Hydropower is aclean form of energy which h must be developed d to its full potential. Uttarakhand has immense hydropower potential which needs to be tapped for long term development. Sustainable Development of Hydropower projects involve substantial risks & uncertainties. To reduce the impact, uncertainties & risks involved must be identified & analyzed. Controls should be suggested at the time of planning pa g& design itself & implemented pe e tedat the eo & M stages. Fuzzy logic is a powerful tool which helps in quantifying risks and uncertainties and also helps in decision making under such conditions.

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