Taking Action on Climate Change: An Electricity Sector Perspective. Devin McCarthy Canadian Electricity Association April 15, 2016

Transcription

1 Taking Action on Climate Change: An Electricity Sector Perspective Devin McCarthy Canadian Electricity Association April 15, 2016

2 Presentation Overview COP21 30% by 2030: Turning Ambition into Reality Next Steps in the National Climate Discussion Page 2

3 COP21 Overview November 30 December 12, 2015 Held at Le Bourget, Paris, France 21 st annual session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 11th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol 195 parties represented About 38,000 participants Page 3

4 Conference Objectives Produce a global agreement Secure ambitious INDCs Develop clarity around climate finance and technology transfer Elicit non-state actor commitments Page 4

5 Page 5 Road to Paris

6 Common but Differentiated Responsibilities UNFCCC called on developed nations to stabilize GHG emissions at 1990 levels by 2000 Established the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) Developed nations produced GHG emissions and are responsible for impacts Should: Reduce emissions Pay for impacts Enable low-carbon economic growth pathways in developing world via tech and financial transfers Page 6

7 Party Groupings & Responsibilities Annex I: 43 Parties 1992 OECD nations + 14 formerly Soviet economies in transition (Russia, Baltic States, several Central and Eastern European States) Annex II: 24 parties, basically the OECD states Required to provide financial and technical support to the EITs and developing countries Non-Annex: Everyone else: mostly low-income developing countries. Developing countries may volunteer to become Annex I countries when they are sufficiently developed. Least-developed countries (LDCs): 49 Parties with limited capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change. Page 7

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9 World s Largest Emitters Page 9 Source: Environment Canada, Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

10 Copenhagen to Paris Copenhagen: 2009 / COP15 Looking to a post-kyoto world (i.e. post 2020) Failed to reach agreement Annex I countries felt the onus too one-sided Compromise reached in Durban, SA, COP17: Established the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) All nations to submit INDCs in advance of COP21, as per Decision 1/CP.20 adopted last year at COP20 in Lima, Peru. To date, 160 INDCs have been submitted, covering 187 countries (the 28 EU nations submitted one joint INDC). More than 99% of global emissions. Page 10

11 INDCs Annex I parties: Cut absolute emissions economy-wide Provide tech & finance (Annex II) Non-Annex: Reduce in relation to a business as usual scenario, a reduction per unit of GDP or a reduction per capita Least Developed Countries: best efforts put the finance and tech transfers to good use Page 11

12 INDC Commitments Country / Union COP21 INDC Commitment 1990 Base Year Equivalent Canada 30% below 2005 levels by % United States of America European Union Mexico Russia per cent below its 2005 level in 2025 and to make best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%. At least 40% domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to % of its Greenhouse Gases and Short Lived Climate Pollutants emissions (below Business as Usual) for the year % of 1990 levels by the year 2030 might be a long-term indicator 14 17% 40% N/A 25 30% Page 12

13 Priority areas for implementation Page 13

14 Page 14 COP21

15 Canada is Back Five key principles: Act on the best scientific data and advice available. Implement policies that lead to low carbon economy, including carbon pricing. Work with provs, terrs, cities and indigenous leaders. Help developing world tackle the challenges of climate change. Build a sustainable economy. We will not sacrifice growth. Page 15

16 Canada s Commitments 30% reduction by 2030 on 2005 baseline Natural gas fired electricity Chemical and fertilizer manufacturing Methane releases from oil & gas No direct comment on oil sands emissions Door open to carbon markets Unique challenges: growing population extreme temperatures a large landmass a diversified growing economy with significant natural resources Page 16

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18 Page 18 The Agreement

19 Ambition & Targets Hold temperature rise to well below 2 degrees C Pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C High Ambition Coalition 100 countries: Annex I and LDCs Peak GHG emissions as soon as possible Balance between sources and sinks in the second half of this century (i.e. zero net emissions) Page 19

20 Nationally Determined Contributions INDCs to become NDCs Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions that it intends to achieve. Reflect highest possible ambition Communicated every five years, starting in 2025 Commitments to progress over time A Party may at any time adjust its existing nationally determined contribution with a view to enhancing its level of ambition Page 20

21 Cooperative Mechanisms Minister McKenna served as facilitator for this topic Internationally transferred mitigation outcomes = carbon credits Successful implementation requires: Market integrity Transparency in reporting No double counting Voluntary participation Page 21

22 Loss and Damage "Loss and damage" is the idea that compensation should be paid to vulnerable states for climate-related events to which they cannot adapt. Acknowledged in the text but no legal liability for developed nations. Parties should enhance understanding, action and support [ ] on a cooperative and facilitative basis. Page 22

23 Financial Support Developed (Annex II) countries shall provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation in continuation of their existing obligations under the Convention. Scale up assistance over time, starting with $100B per year Green Climate Fund. Other Parties are encouraged to provide or continue to provide such support voluntarily. Developed counties shall report biennially any assistance provided. Page 23

24 Technology Transfer Parties share a long-term vision on the importance of fully realizing technology development and transfer in order to improve resilience to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Accelerating, encouraging and enabling innovation is critical for an effective, long-term global response. Economic growth through sustainable development. Page 24

25 Adaptation Global goal on adaptation: enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Share information, good practices, experiences and lessons learned. Each Party should, as appropriate, submit and update periodically an adaptation communication, which may include its priorities, implementation and support needs, plans and actions Page 25

26 Summary Aggressive global targets No penalties for failing to achieve Nationally Determined Contributions No loss & damage liability Commitments for tech and financial transfer Continuous global monitoring / shaming Page 26

27 Next Steps Open for signature from April to April There will be a high level signature ceremony on April Comes into effect only once it is ratified by 55 countries representing at least 55% of global GHG emissions. NDCs come into effect in Parties may submit more ambitious NDCs at any time, and have been encouraged to do so before Parties are asked to provide mid-century GHG emissions mitigation plans by In 2023 the COP will take stock of global GHG emissions to measure progress and inform the 2025 NDC updates. Parties are to update NDCs every five years, starting in Page 27

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29 Page 29 Reaction

30 Paris as a Watershed Moment Climate change action has hit the mainstream. Leaders were briefed up before the conference. 1 degree of warming widely accepted. Cost differential between high-carbon and low carbon is shrinking. Options exist. Global consensus is emerging that it is cheaper to mitigate climate risk now than adapt later on. Page 30

31 IEA 2015 Preliminary Data Page 31 Source: The International Energy Agency, 16 March 2016

32 Page 32 Source: IPCC 5 th Assessment Report

33 Closing the Gap Politicians set the targets, industry to deliver. The Agreement sends a critical message to the global marketplace that economic activity must transition to more sustainable pathways. Business leaders, investors and entrepreneurs have been called upon to turn ambition into reality. Page 33

34 Page 34 Ambition to Reality

35 Canada s GHG Emissions Projection Page 35 Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada. Deck. Canada s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections; March

36 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Canada by Sector, 2013 Note: Emissions do not include the following sectors: land use change and forestry, solvent and other product use and biomass Source: Environment Canada, National Inventory Report : Greenhouse Gas Source and Sinks in Canada, Report date: April, 2015 Page 36

37 Canadian Electricity Sector GHG Emissions Absolute Emissions (Millions of Tonnes) Emissions Intensity (Tonnes / GWh) Page 37

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40 Electricity Drivers: Emissions falling due to coal phase out, switch to natural gas and growth in non-emitting generation. Existing measures include: Federal Coal Fired Electricity regulation Ontario Coal Phase-Out Provincial Renewable Portfolio Standards (NB, NS) Provincial Feed-in Tariffs (ON, PEI, NS) Provincial Net metering programs (SK, MB, ON, QC, NB, NS, PEI) SK carbon capture and storage NS Electricity Emissions Cap Various federal and provincial Energy Efficiency Programs Provincial carbon pricing Page 40 Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada. Deck. Canada s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections; March

41 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Canada by Sector, 2013 Note: Emissions do not include the following sectors: land use change and forestry, solvent and other product use and biomass Source: Environment Canada, National Inventory Report : Greenhouse Gas Source and Sinks in Canada, Report date: April, 2015 Page 41

42 Transportation Drivers: Freight transportation projected to increase with overall economic growth; passenger vehicle emissions to decline. Existing measures include: Federal car & light truck GHG Regs (LDV1 & LDV2) model years 2011 to 2025 Federal heavy duty vehicles regulation for model years Federal and provincial renewable fuels requirements Federal information programs (Energuide, Fuel Consumption Guide, Auto$mart, FleetSmart etc.) Federal marine and rail initiatives Provincial/municipal actions (e.g., mandatory speed limiters, Transit Plans for alternative fuel buses) Provincial carbon pricing Page 42 Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada. Deck. Canada s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections; March

43 Electric Vehicles Percentage decrease in emissions per kilometer Page 43 Courtesy of Plug n Drive

44 10 Yr National Gasoline Avg ( /L) Page 44

45 Tesla 3 Tesla Model 3 A week ago, we started taking reservations for the Model 3, and the excitement has been incredible. We ve now received more than 325,000 reservations, which corresponds to about $14 billion in implied future sales, making this the single biggest one-week launch of any product ever. Elon Musk Page 45

46 Residential & Commercial Buildings Drivers: Emissions growth is driven by expected population and floor space growth. In addition, the impact of the expected growth in HFCs is seen in this sector. Existing measures include: Federal National Energy Code for Buildings of Canada 2011 Provincial/Municipal Residential Building Code for energy efficiency (EnerGuide-80 or R-2000 level) Federal and provincial residential and commercial sector appliance efficiency standards Provincial incentives for renewable space heating/cooling, hot water heating) Provincial carbon pricing Page 46 Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada. Deck. Canada s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections; March

47 Ontario Electricity Prices Page 46

48 6 Page 48 Chart Courtesy of the Canadian Gas Association

49 Provincial Emissions for 1990, 2005, 2013 Page 49 Source: Environment Canada, Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Province and Territory.

50 Recent provincial and territorial announcements will lower emissions in 2030 Provinces/territories are taking a wide range of climate measures In 2015, more than half of the PTs announced 2030 targets Four provinces made significant announcements since October: Alberta s new Climate Leadership Plan, including the phase out of coal-fired electricity, a cap on oil sands emissions and a carbon price applied across all sectors Ontario and Manitoba s cap and trade systems to be linked with Quebec through the Western Climate Initiative Saskatchewan s plan to generate 50% of its electricity using renewable energy by 2030 Carbon pricing has been implemented or is planned in provinces representing more than 80% of Canada s 2013 emissions However, further work is needed to reach our collective commitments Page 50 Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada. Deck. Canada s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections; March

51 Deep Decarbonization Report Published by the Low Carbon Pathways Group of CMC Part of a 16-nation decarbonization pathways study led by Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Low-emitting electricity captures a much larger share of total energy use across the entire economy and provides a low-cost fuel-switching path for currently fossil fuel-based end uses. Investment per year in the electricity sector increases by $13.5 billion Page 51

52 Electrification Abatement by Sector and Action Page 52 Source: Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in Canada, CMC, 2015

53 Changes from 2015 in Sectoral GDP in 2050 (2015 = 1) Page 53 Source: Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in Canada, CMC, 2015

54 Next Steps 1. Continue to invest in clean energy solutions, including electrification of transportation, space heating etc. 2. Make long term and transformative infrastructure investments. 3. Support and encourage electricity sector innovation. 4. Participate in Federal, provincial, and Territorial public policy forums to promote the value of electricity as Canada s clean energy solution.. Page 54

55 Page 55 Engaging the Discussion

56 North American Approach In February Canadian, Mexican, and American Energy Ministers signed cooperative energy MOU to push for significant tri-lateral action on climate change Canada-US agreement on climate change and energy (March 2016) during Trudeau s US visit NA Leaders Summit (Canada/US/Mexico) in June Push for continental agreement to collaborate on energy and climate change (build on MOU) Will echo elements of Paris Agreement technology development, energy efficiency, standards, carbon pricing, joint adaptation and infrastructure Page 56

57 Canada s Climate Change Plan First Minister s met March 3 rd, Vancouver First Ministers agreed to the creation of four key working groups: Carbon pricing Specific mitigation opportunities Clean tech, innovation and jobs Adaptation and resiliency Page 57

58 Deadlines Working Groups to present options and advice: Initial update and analytics to federal/provincial DMs in May Draft report to Ministers by end of June Final reports to Ministers by September 15 First Ministers meet again in late October 2016 Agree to pan-canadian framework and approach for specific, implementable actions to reduce GHG emissions and transition to low-carbon economy; link to energy strategy COP22 in Morocco November 7 18, 2016 Page 58

59 Devin McCarthy Director, Generation & Environment Page 59

60 Appendix: Recent Provincial & Territorial Policy Announcements and Commitments Page 60

61 British Columbia Climate Leadership Team Report released November 27 th. Public consultation on Climate Leadership Plan open from January 25 th to March 25 th. Key recommendations include: Increasing the carbon tax from the current level of $30 per tonne by $10 each year beginning in Amending the Clean Energy Act to increase the target for clean energy on the integrated grid from 93 per cent to 100 per cent by Phase out, by 2025, diesel generation in remote communities and replace it with reliable, low-ghg electricity service. British Columbia is the first Canadian jurisdiction committed to joining the Governors Climate and Forests Task Force (GCF) a unique subnational collaboration between 29 states and provinces from Brazil, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, Spain and the United States. Page 61

62 Alberta On November 22 nd announced the province s Climate Leadership Plan. The plan accelerates the transition from coal to renewable electricity sources, puts a price on carbon pollution for everyone, and sets emissions limits for the oil sands. Carbon pricing will have two-stage phase in: $20/tonne economy-wide in January 2017 $30/tonne economy-wide in January 2018 Diversify supply mix by replacing retired coal with at least two-thirds renewable energy sources. On November 30 th further clarified that this will mean powering up to 30 per cent of Alberta s electricity grid by 2030 with renewables. Alberta will implement a methane reduction strategy to reduce emissions by 45% from 2014 levels by Joined the Climate Group s States and Regions Alliance. The Alliance has 31 members and is co-chaired by Philippe Couillard, Premier of Quebec; Jay Weatherill, Premier of South Australia; and Iñigo Urkullu, President of the Basque Country. Membership includes governments from across Europe, the Americas, South Asia, Australia and Africa. Page 62

63 Saskatchewan 50% electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030, doubling the current 25% mark. International partnerships to share information and research to accelerate the development of carbon capture and storage technologies. Premier Wall on pricing carbon: And the last thing we need right now is a tax increase or a new federal carbon tax or frankly a provincial carbon levy. Now's not the right time for any of those things. Page 63

64 Manitoba On December 3 rd announced a comprehensive plan to address climate change and create green jobs. The plan commits Manitoba to: joining Ontario and Quebec in introducing a cap-and-trade system for large emitters; creating a new demand side management agency, establishing energy savings targets, working to lower utility bills by taking the existing Power Smart program to the next level and supporting adoption of green-heating alternatives to fossil fuels such as geothermal technology; introducing more geothermal and biomass installations; making government operations carbon neutral; and, investing in crucial infrastructure from flood mitigation to adaptable transportation in remote communities. On December 7 th signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to signal the intent to link the cap and trade programs in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba under the Western Climate Initiative. Page 64

65 Ontario On November 24 th released its 2015 Climate Change Strategy. Ontario will, amongst other measures: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15% by 2020 and 37% by 2030, both on 1990 levels. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent below 1990 levels by Implement a cap-and-trade program in 2016, which will be linked to Quebec and California through the Western Climate Initiative. Reduce emissions from transportation by promoting the uptake of zero emission and plug-in hybrid vehicles. The province will release a detailed five-year action plan in 2016, which will include specific commitments to meet near-term 2020 emissions reduction targets, and establish the framework necessary to meet targets for 2030 and The government will report on, and renew, its action plan every five years. On December 3 rd and early 2016 announced its continued commitment to nonemitting nuclear energy. Bruce Power and OPG to refurbish reactors. $325 million Green Investment Fund commits money for projects that fight climate change, including $20 million to build more public charging stations for electric vehicles. One of 11 subnational governments to sign the California-led Under 2 MOU. Member of the International Carbon Action Partnership. Page 65

66 Quebec On November 27 th Minister of Sustainable Development, Environment and the Fight against Climate Change, David Heurtel, announced the government's adoption of a Québec greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 37.5% below 1990 levels by This is in addition to the pre-existing target of 20% reduction on 1990 levels by On December 5 th announced a set of measures totaling $25.5 million to support actions to fight climate change in Francophone countries that are the most vulnerable and most exposed to the consequences of climate change. On December 7 th joined the RegionsAdapt initiative, a new global commitment to support and report efforts on adaptation at the state and regional level. Launched the "Let's Do it for Them" social campaign, to raise the awareness of Quebecers about climate change issues and encourage people to take action. Co-chair the Climate Group s States and Regions Alliance. The Alliance has 31 members and is co-chaired by Philippe Couillard, Premier of Quebec; Jay Weatherill, Premier of South Australia; and Iñigo Urkullu, President of the Basque Country. Membership includes governments from across Europe, the Americas, South Asia, Australia and Africa. Member of the International Carbon Action Partnership. In October announced a five-year, $420 million vehicle-electrification plan called Propulser le Québec par l électricité (or Propelling Quebec Forward with Electricity). The goal is to put 100,000 electric vehicles on provincial roads by Page 66

67 Maritimes New Brunswick is considering a carbon tax and other policy options for fighting climate change. On September 1 st NB signed an MOU with New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers which adopts a GHG reduction target of 35-45% below 1990 levels by Nova Scotia is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 20% on 1990 levels by PEI Premier MacLauchlan said that while Islanders have the second lowest greenhouse gas output in the country, there is still a lot to be done to improve, especially in the areas of transportation and agriculture. On November 30 th Newfoundland provincial Liberal party leader Dwight Ball earned a majority government, ending 12 years of Progressive Conservative rule. Premier Ball s climate plans are still under development. Page 67

68 Territories Yukon Premier Darrell Pasloski was in Paris with a delegation to press two main points climate change adaptation must be addressed, and "sub-national" governments have a key role to play in implementing any agreements. In January 2016, Yukon will become the first territory to chair the Conference of the Federation. Premier Pasloski will provide leadership as the provinces refine the Canadian Energy Strategy. On December 8 th, Arctic Day at COP21, Nunavut Premier Peter Taptuna, Greenland and ICC leaders delivered an Arctic wish list which highlights the need to address the "acute impacts" the Arctic is experiencing from climate change, including stabilizing global greenhouse gas concentrations below 450 parts per million by volume to make certain global temperature increases will remain between 1.5 C and 2 C. Page 68