HUYNH BAO TAN. Republic of Singapore Singapore

Transcription

1 HUYNH BAO TAN, Webpage: sites.google.com/site/petebaotanhuynh Phone: (65) Home Address Office Address Block 298 Punggol Central Singapore Management # University Singapore Stamford Road Republic of Singapore Singapore Personal Information Date of Birth: 09/13/1982 Citizenship: Vietnamese (Singapore Permanent Resident) Gender: Male Fields of Concentration Real Business Cycles Monetary and Fiscal Policy Macroeconomic Theory Desired Teaching Principles of Economics Macroeconomics (all levels), Monetary Economics Mathematics for Economics Education PhD in Economics,, Bachelor of Engineering (Honors), 2 nd Class Upper, National University of Singapore, PhD Dissertation Title: A Study on the Endogenization of Energy Price in the Business Cycle Committee Members: Sungbae An (Chair), Hian Teck Hoon, Haiping Zhang Expected Completion Date: May 2015 Publication Energy Price Shocks and External Balances, forthcoming: Canadian Journal of Economics. Macroeconomic Effects of Energy Price Shocks on the Business Cycle, forthcoming: Macroeconomic Dynamics. Working Papers Monetary Policy and Energy Price Shocks. Fiscal Policy and Optimal Public Goods Provision, with Vishut Rana.

2 Energy Funds and Energy Taxes as Stabilizers against Energy Price Shocks. Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Monetary Union with Incomplete Markets. Fellowships, Honors and Awards SMU Research Scholarship, ASEAN Undergraduate Scholarship, Conference and Seminar Presentations SMU Seminar Series,,, presented paper Energy Price Shocks and External Balances, September EEA-ESEM 2014, Toulouse, presented paper Monetary Policy and Energy Price Shocks, August AMES 2012, New Delhi, presented paper RBC model with endogenous energy production, December Teaching Experience Full-Time Teaching Assistant,,, Teaching Assistant to Prof. Thomas J. Sargent, Advanced Macroeconomic Dynamics, January - March 2015, graduate. - Instructor, Introductory Economics, August - December 2014, undergraduate. o Developed and delivered a Principles of Economics course to a class of 40 undergraduate students. o Maintained office hours, tutored students, developed and graded exam papers. - Instructor, Economics Bridging Course, July 2014, graduate. o Developed and delivered a course on Introductory and Intermediate Microeconomics and Macroeconomics to graduate students. - Teaching Assistant to Prof. Sungbae An, Intermediate Macroeconomics, August May 2014, undergraduate. o Maintained office hours, tutored students and graded assignments and exam papers. Instructor, Graduate Maths Camp,, Singapore Management University, August 2012, graduate. - Developed and delivered a course on Topics in Mathematics to Finance and Economics graduate students. Teaching Assistant to Prof. Sungbae An, Macroeconomics II,,, January - May 2011, graduate. - Maintained office hours, tutored students and graded assignments. - Provided training classes on Dynare.

3 Research and Other Relevant Experience Research Assistant,,, August 2011 May Project: estimation of a heterogeneous-agent model with explicit aggregation method. - Supervisor: Prof. An Sungbae. Other Work Experience Product Engineer, Micron Semiconductor Asia Pte. Ltd., Product team leader in the development and failure analysis of memory products. Skills Technical: - Programming languages: C++. - Software: Matlab, Dynare, Stata, Microsoft Office Suite. Languages: - English (fluent), Vietnamese (native), French (intermediate) References Professor Sungbae An (Advisor/Chair) Phone: (65) sungbae@smu.edu.sg Professor Hian Teck Hoon Phone: (65) hthoon@smu.edu.sg Professor Anthony Tay Phone: (65) anthonytay@smu.edu.sg Dissertation Abstract Given the fundamental role of energy in the economy, the macroeconomic literature contains a large body of work on the impact of oil/energy on the business cycle, with much of the attention focusing on energy supply shocks, mostly modeled as exogenous oil/energy price increases. And yet, the oil price hikes pre-2008 suggest that other shocks to the energy market may be the source of such instance of price disturbances, so that their effects on the economy are no longer predicted by exogenous energy supply shocks. In such scenario, it is no longer valid to treat energy price disturbances as exogenous shocks to an economic model that seeks to study the impact of energy on the business cycle. The empirical works of Kilian (2008, 2009) affirm this point, showing that it is imperative not to view all oil/energy price increases as alike in terms of their impact on the economy, and that the underlying causes of

4 the increases matter. There is thus a need to have a theoretical framework that helps disentangle the various sources of shocks to the energy market and understand the distinct mechanisms that may be at play. This dissertation advances the study of the role of energy in the business cycle. In terms of theoretical modeling it extends the usual RBC framework with oil/energy to include an endogenous energy sector with convex energy production costs, as well as the explicit production and consumption of energy-dependent and non-energydependent goods. The former extension enables the investigation of demand shocks to the energy market, by producing low price elasticity of energy supply, as observed empirically, and meaningful energy price responses to changing energy demand. The latter establishes the theoretical link between the degree of energy dependence of a good and energy price disturbances. These features form the theoretical backbone for the analyses in all three chapters in this dissertation. Chapter 1 uses a closedeconomy RBC model to demonstrate the distinct impacts of different energy supply and demand shocks on the macroeconomy, highlighting the different channels through which the shocks are transmitted. Chapter 2 extends this one-country framework to a two-country model with trade to study the general equilibrium effects of energy price shocks on external balances of energy-exporting and energy-importing countries. Finally chapter 3 revisits the question of the conduct of monetary policy in the events of these supply and demand shocks, prescribing the desirable monetary responses to minimize the shocks impact and comparing the obtained results with those from previous literature. Chapter I: Macroeconomic Effects of Energy Price Shocks on the Business Cycle This paper develops a multi-sector RBC model with endogenous energy production and convex energy costs to analyze quantitatively the general equilibrium effects of various kinds of energy-related shocks on the macro-economy. The convex costs in energy production allow for an investigation of a wider set of supply and demand shocks in the energy market, while the introduction of sectors of goods with different degrees of energy dependence sheds light on the differential impact of energy price shocks on a sectoral level. The results demonstrate the different channels through which energy shocks transmit themselves though the economy, and the way the nature of each shock is imprinted in the diverse responses of the macro variables. Heterogeneity in how the different sectors are affected by energy price shocks is also demonstrated, with the energy-dependent goods sector (durables) suffering a much greater impact on its demand. These findings emphasize the need to go beyond treating all instances of energy price hikes simply as exogenous price shocks, in order to distinguish the underlying causes of the energy price disturbances. Chapter II: Energy Price Shocks and External Balances (Job Market Paper) This paper extends the closed economy model of chapter 1 to a two-country model in which one country is an energy-importer and the other is an energy-exporter. This framework furthers the analysis of energy price shocks on external balances to a wider set of energy supply and demand shocks, thanks to the endogeneity of energy price in the framework. The paper confirms in a theoretical environment the empirical findings of Kilian et al (2009) that different supply and demand shocks have distinct effects on

5 external balances, and that the non-energy trade balance contributes much to this distinction. Our analysis connects these differences to the sources of the energy price increases and distinguishes the roles played by goods of different degrees of energy dependence. The response of trade in durables is highly volatile, and is the determining component in the non-energy trade balance. This points to a more immediate impact of energy price on the non-energy trade balance beyond the channel of the terms of trade, through the tight link between energy and durables. Chapter III: Monetary Policy and Energy Price Shocks This paper investigates the interactions between monetary policy and energy price shocks by determining the effectiveness of various kinds of monetary regimes in dealing with these shocks. It prescribes the desirable monetary responses to four kinds of energy price shocks, highlighting the distinct characteristics of each shock and re-affirming the need for diverse policy considerations. The results also show several points of divergence with previous literature on dealing with energy supply shock.