Towards Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Shanghai and the Yangtze Delta Region

Transcription

1 Towards Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Shanghai and the Yangtze Delta Region Edward Leman, President, Chreod Group Inc. 5 th World Bank Urban Research Symposium, Marseille, 30 June Yangtze Delta Region , Chreod Group Inc. 1

2 % of China's GD DP Yangtze Delta Region Guangdong Guangdong Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Beijing Tianjin YDR Total 25% of China s GDP by Shanghai: 16 th largest Metropolitan Economy by , Chreod Group Inc. 2

3 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Tokyo 36,094 Seoul 24,276 Mumbai 20,072 Shanghai 19,781 Sao Paulo 19,582 Mexico City 19,485 New York-Newark 19,007 Shanghai 2010: 19.6 mn Delhi Wuhan Hongkong-Shenzhen Beijing Kolkota Dhaka Guangzhou-Foshan Chengdu Buenos Aires Karachi Los Angeles Changsha Cairo London Rio de Janeiro Chongqing Istanbul 17,015 16,758 16,419 15,993 15,577 14,796 14,568 14,198 13,089 13,052 12,873 12,804 12,503 12,209 12,171 12,052 11, : 24.5 mn 2030: 27 mn Metro Manila Osaka-Kobe Paris Xi an Jakarta (DKI) Lagos Moscow 11,662 11,337 11,226 11,198 11,180 10,572 10,495 P opu la tio n (m illion Hangzhou 10, Nanjing 10,323 Shantou 9, Xiamen 9,592 Chicago 9,570 5 Shenyang 9,068 Kinshasa 9,052 0 Jinan 8, Tianjin 8,843 register population (local hukou) migrant population 40 Largest Metropolitan Regions in year ( ) history of extreme events: typhoons/cyclones floods drought landslides Data from Columbia University s Center for Hazards and Risk Research for World Bank s Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis project (2005) superimposed on Chreod s global database on 444 metropolitan regions with population > 1 million Metropolitan Regions Exposure to Severe Weather Events , Chreod Group Inc. 3

4 Metropolitan Regions Exposure to Severe Weather Events 7 40,000 37,500 35,000 Tokyo 32,500 30,000 ds), 2010 Population (thousan 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 New York Wuhan Seoul Shanghai Delhi Hongkong-Shenzhen Kolkota Guangzhou-Foshan 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 Shantou Hangzhou Dongguan Xiamen Wuxi Ningbo Suzhou Taizhou Chittagong Manila 2,500 New Orleans Davao Severe Climate Events Exposure Index Metropolitan Regions Exposure to Severe Weather Events , Chreod Group Inc. 4

5 Cyclone Tracks, # storm surge es Storm Surges: , Chreod Group Inc. 5

6 Precipitation Trends reproduced from Shi (2006) 11 Pillar Industrial Bases, Industrial Parks, 2003 Storm surges from 5 of worst cyclones modeled to 2050 at high tide: 7.5 meters at 20 cm SLR but now estimated at cm Highest recorded tidal level: 5.22 m in 1991 Floodwalls designed for 1000-year event; now 100-year event Shanghai s Industrial Assets , Chreod Group Inc. 6

7 Taihu Basin: now 70% of Shanghai s Water 13 Shanghai s Water Supply System, , Chreod Group Inc. 7

8 Air Temperature Trends Source: reproduced from Shi (2006) 15 Heat Island, 2006 Source: reproduced from Shi (2006) , Chreod Group Inc. 8

9 Population Densities, 2000 (16.4 million pop.) 17 Population Densities, 2030 (27 million pop.) , Chreod Group Inc. 9

10 Population Densities, 2030 (27 million pop.) 19 major focus significant focus Spatial Scales Institutional Implications Changes in Extremes Likely Effects Potential Impacts local metropolitan region Yangtze Delta Region local government municipal/districts coordination cross-boundary coordination inter-municipal coordination national/inter-provincial more frequent and intense cyclones tidal flooding damage/disruption of strategic infrastructure: and storm surges airports, ports, causeways and bridges, rail, commuter rail, subways, roads, expressways fluvial flooding damage/disruption of local infrastructure: harbours, local roads, dykes, canals, weirs etc. severe winds saline contamination of groundwater more frequent and extreme rain surface flooding saline contamination of surface water and storms reservoirs more frequent and extreme heatwaves more frequent and intense droughts extreme temperature days abrupt deterioration in air quality reduction in surface water reduction in groundwater fluvial deceleration abrupt deterioration in human health overtaxing healthcare services abrupt spikes in electricity demand d abrupt spikes in water demand water shortages food scarcity (price spikes) spikes in surface water pollution from unassimilated wastewater discharges accelerated, unauthorized extraction exacerbating subsidence Institutional Implications of Changes in Extremes , Chreod Group Inc. 10

11 major focus significant focus Spatial Scales Institutional Implications Changes in Means Likely Effects Potential Impacts local metropolitan region Yangtze Delta Region local government municipal/districts coordination cross-boundary coordination inter-municipal coordination national/inter-provincial rising surface air temperatures acceleration and spatial expansion of heat island effects deteriorating environmental health conditions increasing demand for healthcare services deteriorating air quality growing demand for electricity rising sea level tidal flooding forced changes to land uses and transportation fluvial flooding forced relocation of firms and resettlement of households reduction in upper Yangtze source waters saline intrusion fluvial deceleration forced relocation of raw water intakes and reservoirs deteriorating surface water quality due to reduced assimilative capacities of receiving waters wetland degradation species reduction increased mean precipitation coastal erosion waterlogging deteriorating coastal water quality deteriorating groundwater quality larger, more frequent urban and agricultural runoffs runoffs exceed capacities of drainage systems leading to localized flooding increased non-point pollution of surfacewaters Institutional Implications of Changes in Means 21 Insufficient Metropolitan Region-wide Coordination Jurisdictions within Shanghai , Chreod Group Inc. 11

12 State Council Shanghai Municipal Focus Xuhui 1 National Development Reform Commission Baoshan 1 Baoshan 1 Ministry of Environmental Protection Zhabei 1 Ministry of Water Resources Baoshan 1 Changning 1 Taihu Basin Water Resources Commission Pudong 1 Ministry of Land and Natural Resources Yangpu 1 Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Jingan 1 Ministry of Communications Luwan 1 Hongkou 1 Putuo 1 Nanshi 1 Nanhui Semi-autonomous 1 A2 A1 Urban District Suburban District Jinshan 1 Qingpu 1 Jiading 1 Nanhui 1 Songjiang 1 Minhang 1 Prefecture Seat (core Municipality) Chongming C. 1 total: County-level City County Complex, bureaucratic approach to cross-border coordination Jiangsu A3 NANJING PLC Nanjing UA 1 Lishui C. 1 Gaochun C. 1 Zhenjiang UA ZHENJIANG PLC 1 Danyang City 1 Yangzhong City 1 Changzhou UA CHANGZHOU PLC 1 Liyang City 1 Jintan City 1 Jurong City 1 Wuxi UA WUXI PLC 1 Jiangyin City Yixing City SUZHOU PLC Suzhou UA 1 A4 Changshu City 1 Zhangjiagang City 1 Kunshan City 1 Wujiang City 1 Taicang City 1 NANTONG PLC Nantong UA 1 Qidong City 1 Rugao City 1 Tongzhou City 1 Haimen City 1 Hai`an C. 1 Rudong C. YANGZHOU PLC Yangzhou UA 1 Yizheng City 1 Gaoyou City 1 Jiangdu City 1 Baoying C. 1 Taizhou UA TAIZHOU PLC 1 Xinghua City 1 Jingjiang City 1 Taixing City 1 Jiangyan City 1 total: Structure of Jurisdictions, Yangtze Delta Region (SH, ZJ) 23 Insufficient Inter-Municipal Coordination but core institutions now exist through which a CC Adaptation Strategy could be prepared Administrative Jurisdictions in Yangtze Delta Region , Chreod Group Inc. 12

13 1. YDR-wide Vulnerability Analysis Collate and correlate domestic science Mobilize and integrate best international capacities 2. Design of Institutional Mechanisms Metropolitan region management Cross-border coordination Inter-municipal coordination + cooperation 3. Adaptation Strategy Goals Policies + Policy Instruments Programs Roles and Responsibilities Implementation Plan with M+E Moving Forward: An Action Plan 25 If these institutional challenges are addressed, Yangtze Delta could become a global adaptation model for large, complex, and highly vulnerable regions , Chreod Group Inc. 13

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