Energy Perspectives 2017 Long-term macro and market outlook. USA, June 2017 Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist

Transcription

1 Energy Perspectives 217 Long-term macro and market outlook USA, June 217 Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist

2 Three different tales of the future towards 25 None are BAU Renewal a tremendous challenge, Rivalry unpleasant Market-driven Constructive market rule Reform Energy supply security concerns Policy-driven Renewal Local pollution concerns Rivalry Destructive market rule Global precautionary focus Local/national permissive focus 2 Classification: 7 Internal June 217

3 Key #1: Energy efficiency improvement Global GDP times higher in 25, Energy demand -5% + 3% Energy intensity Index, 199=1 Reform Renewal Rivalry 6 5 World GDP and energy demand Index, 199=1 Reform Renewal Rivalry World energy demand per fuel Billion toe New Renewables Hydro Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Oil Unchanged EI decline June 217

4 Key #2: Speeding up the change in global energy mix with Renewal displaying a paradigm shift Global energy mix % New RES 8 Biomass 6 4 Hydro Nuclear Gas 2 Oil Coal 4

5 Technology shift for light duty vehicles in all scenarios, and a revolution in Renewal Sales light duty vehicles Millions Other Electric vehicles Gasoline Plug-in hybrids Diesel Light duty vehicle fleet composition Billions Other Plug-in hybrids Electric vehicles Diesel Gasoline Fuel mix for LDVs Million toe Electricity Biomass Gas Oil

6 Decarbonise electricity, and go electric 13-doubling of wind, 39-doubling of solar generation in Renewal Electricity generation mix % Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Hydro Nuclear Solar and wind generation Thousand TWh (left), % (right) Solar Wind Electricity share of TFC % Gas Oil Coal

7 Oil and gas dominate in other sectors contributing to maintaining demand for fossil fuels Fuel mix in final energy demand for transport excluding LDVs Btoe Fuel mix in final energy demand for residential, commercial & industrial sectors Btoe Electricity Biomass Gas Oil Coal Heat Electricity New RES Biomass Gas Oil Coal 2, , ,5 7

8 Huge investments needed in oil in all scenarios to replace production and satisfy demand Oil demand and supply from existing fields Million barrels per day Cumulative oil demand gap 215-5, compared Billion barrels Demand range Saudi Arabia Potential legacy production Renewal add-on Reform add-on Rivalry add-on Norway USA Opec Production Decline range Cumulative oil demand USA Opec Norway Cumulative production Source: Statoil Source: Statoil (projections), BP statistical review of world energy (history) 8

9 and the same is the case for gas to replace production and satisfy demand Gas demand and supply from existing fields Billion cubic meters Cumulative gas demand gap 215-5, compared Trillion cubic meters Demand range US Potential legacy production Renewal add-on Rivalry add-on Reform add-on Norway ME Russia Production Decline range Cumulative gas demand USA Russia Middle East Norway Cumulative production Source: Statoil Source: Statoil (projections), BP statistical review of world energy (history) 9

10 Statoil ASA This presentation, including the contents and arrangement of the contents of each individual page or the collection of the pages, are owned by Statoil. Copyright to all material including, but not limited to, written material, photographs, drawings, images, tables and data remains the property of Statoil. All rights reserved. Any other kind of use, reproduction, translation, adaption, arrangement, any other alteration, distribution or storage of this presentation, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Statoil is prohibited. The information contained in this presentation may not be accurate, up to date or applicable to the circumstances of any particular case, despite our efforts. Statoil cannot accept any liability for any inaccuracies or omissions.

11 CO 2 emissions determined by demand and mix Policies, markets, and technology having varying impact World CO 2 emissions Billion tons World CO 2 emissions Billion tons 5 Reform Renewal Rivalry IEA NP IEA 45 IEA 66% chance of 2 o C Rest of world India China OECD Pacific European Union OECD Americas Cumulative CO 2 1 emissions in Renewal 215-5: 848 Gt

12 OECD Americas energy mix with Renewal displaying a paradigm shift eliminating coal Global energy mix % New RES 8 Biomass 6 4 Hydro Nuclear Gas 2 Oil Coal 12

13 OECD Americas: Technology shift for light duty vehicles in all scenarios, and a revolution in Renewal Sales Light Duty Vehicles Millions Other Electric vehicles Gasoline Plug-in hybrids Diesel Other Light Duty Vehicle fleet composition Millions Plug-in hybrids Electric vehicles Gasoline Diesel Fuel mix for LDVs Mtoe Electricity Biomass Gas Oil

14 OECD Americas: Decarbonisation of electricity Large investments in new renewables required, especially in Renewal Electricity generation mix % Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Solar and wind generation Thousand TWh (left), % (right) Solar Wind Electricity share of TFC %