Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases

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1 Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Program achievements Markus Amann Program Director

2 The (current) MAG team Young-Hwan Ahn Korea Energy in Asia Markus Amann Austria Program Leader Imrich Bertok Slovakia Database Jens Borken-Kleefeld Germany Transport Janusz Cofala Poland Energy Chris Heyes UK Atmospheric dispersion Lena Hoglund-Isaksson Sweden Economics Gregor Kiesewetter Austria Atmospheric chemistry Zbigniew Klimont Poland Agriculture, particles Kaarle Kupiainen Finland Black carbon Carmen Marcos-Sanchez Spain Secretary Binh Nguyen Vietnam Web programming Pallav Purohit India Development issues Peter Rafaj Slovakia Global energy scenarios Robert Sander Austria Software development Wolfgang Schöpp Austria Impact modelling Fabian Wagner Germany Optimization Wilfried Winiwarter Austria Nitrogen, agriculture

3 Program objectives IIASA s mission: provide insights and guidance to policymakers worldwide by finding solutions to global and universal problems through applied systems analysis in order to improve human and societal wellbeing and to protect the environment. MAG s research plan: new methodologies to highlight measures that make cost-effective contributions to development, human health, agricultural production and biodiversity at the local scale and in the near term, and at the same time yield positive side-effects on climate change.

4 A systems perspective to reveal co-benefits of air quality and greenhouse gas mitigation PM (BC, OC) Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy) SO 2 NO x VOC NH 3 CO CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O O 3 (Premature mortality) Vegetation damage: O 3 (AOT40/fluxes) HFCs PFCs SF 6 Multi-pollutant/multi-effect Focus on specific measures Acidification (Excess of critical loads) Eutrophication (Excess of critical loads) Climate impacts: Long-term (GWP100) Near-term forcing (in Europe and global mean forcing) Black carbon deposition to the arctic ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Cost-effectiveness analysis: least-cost portfolios to improve environment MAG s approach shapes the thinking about air quality management and co-benefits around the world

5 Three dimensions of co-benefits: (1) From a climate perspective CO 2 mitigation and air pollutant emissions Change in CO2 emissions relative to baseline Source: GAINS-Annex I CO 2 mitigation reduces air pollution emissions and improves human health

6 Three dimensions of co-benefits: (2) From an air quality perspective Costs for reducing PM2.5 population exposure in China by 50% Emission control costs (% of GDP (PPP) in 2030) 0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% Using only air pollution control measures -8% CO 2 Using air pollution control measures and GHG measures simultaneously PM controls,households PM end-of-pipe measures NOx end-of-pipe measures SO2 end-of-pipe measures Co-generation Energy efficiency, industry Energy efficiency, households Electricity savings Source: GAINS-Asia Cost-effective portfolios to improve air quality include measures that also reduce long-lived GHGs

7 Three dimensions of co-benefits: (3) Climate impacts of air pollutants 16 concrete measures Recovery of coal mine gas Production of crude oil and natural gas Gas leakages at pipelines and distribution nets Waste recycling Wastewater treatment Farm-scale anaerobic digestion Aeration of rice paddies Modern coke ovens Modern brick kilns Diesel particle filters Briquettes instead of coal for heating Improved biomass cook stoves Pellets stoves and boilers Ban of high-emitting vehicles Ban of open burning of agricultural waste Elimination of biomass cook stoves Global implementation would save millions of premature deaths and slow down near-term warming by ~0.5 degrees: Global temperature Reference CO 2 measures SLCP measures CO 2 + SLCP measures Shindell et al., Science (2012) Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC, 33 countries, 36 NGOs) formed to promote implementation of these 16 measures - IIASA on Science Advisory Panel

8 The scope for harnessing co-benefits through policy interventions will remain in the future Million tons Global emissions NO x NO x RCP 40 GAINS CLE 20 GAINS NFC GAINS MTFR While RCP scenarios assume autonomous decline in AP emissions with increasing economic wealth, GAINS indicates continued importance of policy interventions - otherwise global emissions could grow again

9 Focus on benefits (1): Emphasis on win-win (negative cost) measures For Copenhagen climate negotiations: Total costs for GHG mitigation, Annex I, 2020 GAINS estimates for different interest rates Total cost (% of GDP2020) 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 5% -0.5% 0% 20% 4% -5% -10% -15% Emissions relative to % -25% For UNEP/CCAC analysis: 50% of the potential could be achieved by measures that bring cost-savings to societies in the long-run; however, markets lack incentives for up-front investments. 20% (i.e., many of the CH 4 measures) would be competitive on a global carbon market 20% are side-effects of other development objectives (waste management, ground-water protection, etc.) 10% require improved governance (ban of agricultural waste burning, high-emitting vehicles) All four groups are win-win-win solutions to development!!!

10 Focus on benefits (2): A fuller perspective on economic benefits of air pollution controls While estimates of monetary Minutes per worker per year Working time to pay for measures Reduced absence from work benefits are debated, GAINS/ EC4MACS models demonstrate for Europe: Despite significant improvements in the past, there is still scope for highly costeffective measures in the EU, for which just the gains in labor Ambition of emission control scenarios productivity from better health exceed mitigation costs

11 Focus on benefits (3): Impacts of environmental investments on human well-being in India Relative to % 400% 300% 200% 100% Population and GDP GDP/capita +268% GDP +390% Population +35% Relative to 2005 Energy use and emissions 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% Indian legislation scenario Energy use: +160% SO2: +390% NOx: +170% PM2.5: +30% Ambient PM2.5 concentrations from anthropogenic sources 0% % Human Development Index Life expectancy 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% Air pollution control costs as % of GDP European legislation Cohort life expectancy at birth Years European legislation GDP/capita 0.3% 0.2% Indian legislation Education 2005 Indian European legislation 0.1% 0.0% Indian legislation

12 Resources and output Resources: Internal IIASA: 1.5 million External: 7.3 million 86 FTE person-years Large international network of collaborators, involvement in numerous research projects in Europe and Asia Contributions to GEA, UNEP/WMO, WHO, Royal Society assessments Coordinator of policy assessment modeling for LRTAP and EU 89 journal papers, 29 book chapters 53 policy reports 5309 citations found by Scopus (for ~50% of articles only)

13 Publication and citations statistics Number of papers Number of citations (of papers listed in Scopus) Policy reports Book chapters Not in Scopus Papers in Scopus *) Citations in Scopus *) five most active authors only

14 Contributions to policy processes Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution IIASA hosts the Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling Policy analyses for protocols (i.a., Revised Gothenburg Protocol 2012) European Union European Consortium for Modeling of Air and Climate Strategies (EC4MACS) Air Pollution Review 2013, Clean Air For Europe (CAFE), Thematic Strategy All climate policy proposals since 2004 (Co-benefits and non-co 2 gases) UNEP Black Carbon Assessment, Gap reports Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) Arctic Council, Cryosphere Initiative, World Bank UNFCCC (Comparison of mitigation efforts across Annex I)

15 The GAINS model as a community tool Global coverage, implemented for ~200 world regions, Freely accessible at the Internet, ~600 registered users National versions with collaborating teams developed for China, Finland, India, Indonesia, Korea, Pakistan, Netherlands, Sweden, Russia, Ukraine; France, Ireland, Italy. Gridded GAINS emission scenarios as input for global modeling communities, i.a., LRTAP Task Force on Hemispheric Transport, RCP/SSP Shared Socio-economic Pathways, etc.

16 Future directions Transition dynamics for today s decisions: Modelling transition pathways to 2050 Explore importance of today s decisions National/urban(?) scale Re-framing the climate debate: Wider analyses of near-term benefits for non-climate policy priorities Practical tools for decision makers