MINNESOTA EUI STATEWIDE ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL STUDY ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING #4 AND MINNESOTA EUI POLICY REVIEW 6/27/2018

Transcription

1 MINNESOTA EUI STATEWIDE ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL STUDY AND MINNESOTA EUI POLICY REVIEW ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING #4 6/27/2018

2 TODAY S AGENDA Meeting kick-off and Review Project Goals Potential Study Results Utility Recommendations from Potential Study Modeling Impacts of Policy Change Quick Check in on Stakeholder Project Normal Maintenance and Department Review Process Guidance Wrap-up / Feedback Opportunity 2

3 MEETING GOALS Present draft EUI Potential Study results o Review methodology o Results o Conclusions/interpretation Discuss policy modeling Check in on DOE project Normal Maintenance guidance update Final Opportunity for Potential Study feedback 3

4 ADVISORY COMMITTEE ROLE This is the final Advisory Committee meeting for the EUI Potential Study project If you have questions or feedback, please call or Travis Hinck by July 16 th, 2018 Phone:

5 POTENTIAL STUDY - OBJECTIVE Estimate the potential for improving efficiency and reducing carbon emissions related to Electric Utility Infrastructure in Minnesota 5

6 POTENTIAL STUDY OBJECTIVES Devise a method to estimate EUI conservation - first study of it s kind Develop utility recommendations to capture potential Inform ongoing EUI policy discussion 6

7 POTENTIAL STUDY STATUS Data collection complete! Preliminary results complete Final results/report to complete in July o o o o Final Report Factsheet Webinar Screening Tools 7

8 TODAY S AGENDA Meeting kick-off and Review Project Goals Potential Study Results Utility Recommendations from Potential Study Modeling Impacts of Policy Change Quick Check in on Stakeholder Project Normal Maintenance and Department Review Process Guidance Wrap-up / Feedback Opportunity 8

9 RESULTS PRELIMINARY NOTE All results are in preliminary, draft form. Please do not circulate outside the Advisory Committee at this time 9

10 RESULTS NONDISCLOSURE NOTE Some data collected during the study was provided under a Non-Disclosure Agreement All results are presented at an aggregated level and anonymized to prevent identification of data sources 10

11 RESULTS - PRESENTATION OVERVIEW Generation o Review methodology o Present draft results T&D o Review methodology o Present draft results Present draft overall results Discuss conclusions and interpretation of results Present draft utility recommendations 11

12 12 GENERATION METHODOLOGY

13 GENERATION METHODOLOGY Models based on TRM heat rate measure Separate approaches for technical and achievable potential Adjusted approach to use available data Economic same as achievable for Generation Not a complete analysis of all unique facilities owned by all utilities serving MN (beyond scope) o Accurate at state-level (less so at utility/facility) o Aggregated, anonymized results (no NDA issues) 13

14 GENERATION METHODOLOGY - DATA Data collected from FERC Forms1 and 923, EIA Form 860 Integrated Resource Plans EPA and EIA reports Shared sales forecasts with DSM study Generation experts Utility data request responses and direct conversations (THANK YOU!) 14

15 FINAL GENERATION DATA REQUEST 15

16 GENERATION METHODOLOGY - BASE Baseline data set starts with all facilities in MN or owned by utilities in MN Remove facilities: o Plants w/o a heat rate (hydro, renewables) o Planned retirements and very old plants o Small (<1MW) plants o Low capacity factor plants (150hrs/yr) o Plants serving significant load out of MN 16

17 GENERATION TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY Technical potential model is top-down Compare each generation facility in the base data set to Best-in-Class by heat rate Classes defined by fuel, technology, age, capacity, and capacity factor Best-in-class site chosen by a generation expert as high-performing, but within reason Each class designed maximum % improvement Apply TRM algorithm for savings 17

18 Modeled Classes of Generation Facilities, Best-in-class HR, and Capped improvement 18

19 GENERATION ACHIEVABLE METHODOLOGY Achievable model is project-based For each class, an example heat rate improvement project is designed to pass a TRC test and maximize savings Selected example project applied to each plant in the class (average over a sample size) ONE project per site (limits results) Apply TRM algorithm for savings Assumptions listed in report section

20 20 GENERATION RESULTS

21 GENERATION TECHNICAL RESULTS Generation Sector Technical Potential for Conservation by Generation Technology 21

22 GENERATION ACHIEVABLE RESULTS Minnesota Statewide Generation Sector Achievable Potential for Conservation in Equivalent MWh 22

23 GENERATION ACHIEVABLE RESULTS Generation Sector Achievable Potential for Conservation by Generation Technology 23

24 GENERATION ACHIEVABLE RESULTS POSSIBLE breakdown of statewide generation conservation potential including natural gas savings These results require careful interpretation 24

25 GENERATION ACHIEVABLE RESULTS Statewide Generation Sector Achievable Potential by IOU vs. COU 25

26 GENERATION ACHIEVABLE RESULTS 26

27 27 T&D METHODOLOGY

28 T&D TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY Methodology Highlights Bottom-up approach Apply TRM measures to existing infrastructure conditions Develop estimates of units 28

29 T&D TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY Methodology Details: Model of system developed from sample of data from a sample of utilities Each EUI efficiency measure is applied to the model to calculate technical potential ECMs include retrofit, natural replacement, and new construction measures Load (sales) forecasts shared with EE study & applied to system model to define baseline conditions 29

30 T&D TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY TRM Measures Applied: Applying direct infrastructure measures only o High-efficiency transformers (service & substation), low-loss conductors, and CVR Not looking at ancillary measures at this time o E.g.: HVAC, lighting, motors at substations 30

31 T&D MEASURE PERMUTATIONS Measure Measure Identifier Measure Segment Single phase: Residential-urban, residential-rural, commercial Three phase: Commercial, industrial Service Transformers Size Single phase: 10 kva, 15 kva, 25 kva, 37.5 kva, 50 kva, 75 kva, 100 kva, 167 kva, 250 kva, 333 kva, 500 kva, 667 kva, 833 kva Three phase: 15 kva, 30 kva, 45 kva, 75 kva, kva, 150 kva, 225 kva, 300 kva, 500 kva, 750 kva, 1000 kva, 1500 kva, 2000 kva, 2500 kva Measure Measure Identifier Measure Segment All Substation Transformers Size Small 5 MVA Mid Small > 5 MVA and 12 MVA Mid Large > 12 MVA and 30 MVA Large > 30 MVA 31

32 T&D MEASURE PERMUTATIONS Measure Measure Identifier Measure Segment Residential-urban, residential-rural, commercial, industrial, mixed Location Underground or overhead Conductors Size Overhead replacement: 4 AWG, 2 AWG, 1/0 AWG, 4/0 AWG Overhead ACCC upgrade: 336 kcmil, 557 kcmil Underground: 1 AWG, 2/0 AWG, 600 kcmil, 750 kcmil, 1000 kcmil Overhead Underground Baseline Measure Baseline Measure 6 AWG (ACSR) 4 AWG (ACSR) 2 AWG (ACSR) 1 AWG (ACSR) 4 AWG (ACSR) 2 AWG (ACSR) 1/0 AWG (ACSR) 2/0 AWG (ACSR) 2 AWG (ACSR) 1/0 AWG (ACSR) * 500 kcmil (ACSR) 600 kcmil (ACSR) 2/0 AWG (ACSR) 4/0 AWG (ACSR) 600 kcmil (ACSR) 750 kcmil (ACSR) 336 kcmil (ACSR) 336 kcmil (ACCC) 750 kcmil (ACSR) 1000 kcmil (ACSR) 557 kcmil (ACSR) 557 kcmil (ACCC) * 1/0 AWG was used as the most likely replacement because overhead 1 AWG only represented a small fraction of the territory. 32

33 T&D MEASURE PERMUTATIONS Measure Measure Identifier Measure Segment By substation group from Minnesota Geospatial Information Office (MnGeo) high voltage transmission line (HVTL) data. Tier 1 Without Improvements ECM1: Lowers the distribution voltage level only using either Line Drop Compensation (LDC) or End-of-Line (EOL) voltage control methods. CVR ECM2: Includes Option 1 and adds system improvements including Tier 2 VAR management, phase load balancing, and feeder load balancing With Minor Improvements Tier 3 With Major Improvements using either LDC or EOL voltage control methods. ECM3: Includes Option 2 and adds voltage regulators on 1 of every 4 substations with select reconductoring on 1 of every 2 substations. Measure Tier % Saving Average Delta Average CVR Voltage Factor Voltage Regulation LDC Without System Improvements % Voltage Regulation LDC Minor System Improvements % Voltage Regulation LDC Major System Improvements % Voltage Regulation EOL Without System Improvements % Voltage Regulation EOL Minor System Improvements % Voltage Regulation EOL Major System Improvements %

34 T&D MODEL EXAMPLE Example of EUI Measures Technical Workbooks 34

35 T&D ECONOMIC METHODOLOGY Estimated incremental costs for each discrete measure Included annual O&M, where applicable Provided cost sources in report Used avoided costs from EE study Screened measures with UCT B/C test 35

36 Ramp Rate of Adoption T&D ACHIEVABLE METHODOLOGY Study assumes: Long-run maximum achievable percentage is 100% Fairly conservative ramp rate Developed from previous study 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 36

37 37 T&D RESULTS

38 T&D TECHNICAL POTENTIAL RESULTS Group 2039 Forecast Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Technical Potential (MWh) 2039 Technical Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) IOUs 57,200,897 1,564, % Co-ops 28,031,484 1,273, % Munis 18,358, , % Statewide 103,590,726 3,248, % Measure Category 2039 Cumulative Technical Potential (MWh) Measure Category Percent of Total T&D Savings Conservation Voltage Reduction 851,547 26% Conductors 1,484,739 46% Transformers 912,637 28% Total 3,248, % 38

39 T&D ECONOMIC AND ACHIEVABLE Group 2039 Forecast Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Economic Potential (MWh) 2039 Economic Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) 2039 Economic Potential as a Percent of Technical IOUs 57,200,897 1,155, % 73.8% Co-ops 28,031, , % 60.0% Munis 18,358, , % 63.0% Statewide 103,590,726 2,178, % 67.1% Group 2039 Forecast Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Achievable Potential (MWh) 2039 Achievable Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) 2039 Achievable Potential as a Percent of Technical IOUs 57,200, , % 39.3% Co-ops 28,031, , % 31.6% Munis 18,358, , % 33.3% Statewide 103,590,726 1,154, % 35.5% 39

40 T&D RESULTS BY MEASURE CATEGORY Measure Category 2039 Cumulative Technical Potential (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Economic Potential (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Achievable Potential (MWh) CVR 851, , ,787 Conductors 1,484,739 1,227, ,353 Transformers 912, , ,177 Total 3,248,923 2,178,860 1,154,317 40

41 Incremental MWh T&D INCREMENTAL RESULTS BY YEAR 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 IOUs Co-ops Munis 41

42 Cumulative MWh T&D CUMULATIVE RESULTS BY YEAR 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 IOUs Co-ops Munis 42

43 T&D TRANSFORMERS RESULTS Group 2039 Forecast Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Technical Potential (MWh) 2039 Technical Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) IOUs 57,200, , % Co-ops 28,031, , % Munis 18,358, , % Statewide 103,590, , % Group 2039 Forecast Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Economic Potential (MWh) 2039 Economic Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Achievable Potential (MWh) 2039 Achievable Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) IOUs 57,200, , % 72, % Co-ops 28,031, , % 140, % Munis 18,358,345 49, % 26, % Statewide 103,590, , % 239, % 43

44 T&D CONDUCTORS RESULTS Group 2039 Forecast Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Technical Potential (MWh) 2039 Technical Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) IOUs 57,200, , % Co-ops 28,031, , % Munis 18,358, , % Statewide 103,590,726 1,484, % Group 2039 Forecast Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Economic Potential (MWh) 2039 Economic Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Achievable Potential (MWh) 2039 Achievable Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) IOUs 57,200, , % 335, % Co-ops 28,031, , % 234, % Munis 18,358, , % 68, % Statewide 103,590,726 1,227, % 639, % 44

45 T&D CVR RESULTS Group 2039 Forecast Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Technical Potential (MWh) 2039 Technical Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) IOUs 57,200, , % Co-ops 28,031, , % Munis 18,358, , % Statewide 103,590, , % Group 2039 Forecast Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Economic Potential (MWh) 2039 Economic Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) 2039 Cumulative Achievable Potential (MWh) 2039 Achievable Potential as a Percent of Sales (MWh) IOUs 57,200, , % 207, % Co-ops 28,031,484 48, % 26, % Munis 18,358,345 75, % 41, % Statewide 103,590, , % 275, % 45

46 46 OVERALL RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

47 OVERALL STATEWIDE RESULTS Total Statewide Conservation Potential in MWh (equivalent MWh for generation)

48 OVERALL STATEWIDE RESULTS Total Statewide Conservation Potential as a Percentage of Predicted Electric Sales Total Statewide Conservation Potential as a Percentage of CIP Electric Goals

49 OVERALL STATEWIDE RESULTS Total Conservation Potential in MWh (equivalent MWh for generation) by Sector and IOU/COU

50 CONCLUSIONS REVIEW CONTEXT Models applied to representative samples - results may not apply to individual utilities or facilities There is no economic potential for generation separate from achievable Several types of measures or facilities not included (expected small contribution) Remember this is a unique approach 50

51 CONCLUSIONS Achievable conservation in the EUI sector in MN represents approximately 8.2% of utilities electric CIP goals from Technical EUI potential is approximately 19.2% of CIP goals from Potential is large enough that utilities should pursue it, but not so large that we need to worry about displacing DSM activities (on average, over time) 51

52 CONCLUSIONS There are likely policy options to shift some technical potential to become achievable by lowering barriers and calibrating incentives one possibility will be modeled to test the degree to which this is true 52

53 CONCLUSIONS GENERATION EXAMPLES The full report includes three generation example projects Based on actual projects designed or completed for clients (not MN) Adjusted to pass TRC and maximize savings Used to develop achievable potential. The examples themselves may be more useful 53

54 54 LOSS STUDY APPROACH

55 LOSS STUDY APPROACH There is not currently enough consistent, recent data to calculate conservation potential using loss studies However, loss studies can be used by utilities to identify conservation opportunity and to track improvement over time internally 55

56 TODAY S AGENDA Meeting kick-off and Review Project Goals Potential Study Results Utility Recommendations from Potential Study Modeling Impacts of Policy Change Quick Check in on Stakeholder Project Normal Maintenance and Department Review Process Guidance Wrap-up / Feedback Opportunity 56

57 UTILITY RECOMMENDATIONS Sixteen draft recommendations developed (see handout) Discussion about recommendations o Do these make sense o Are there more that come to mind? 57

58 UTILITY RECOMMENDATIONS CIP/Planning personnel discussions High-level opportunity assessments Use Department as resource Stay current on technologies Make use of policy guidance Follow DOE study Action Plan Look at similar Gen sites for ideas Coal still offers opportunities Examine Gen operating protocols Review planned projects for EE Consider accelerating AMI installs Track system losses over time Update maintenance protocols Typical DSM EE projects at utility site Conductor upgrades specifically Near term look at Gen 58

59 SCREENING TOOLS Plan to develop screening tools to help utilities evaluate possible EUI projects for savings potential and cost-effectiveness Relatively simple tools reverse the potential prediction models to screen projects o could use existing ESP SmartMeasures Meant as starting point to begin EUI conversation 59

60 TODAY S AGENDA Meeting kick-off and Review Project Goals Potential Study Results Utility Recommendations from Potential Study Modeling Impacts of Policy Change Quick Check in on Stakeholder Project Normal Maintenance and Department Review Process Guidance Wrap-up / Feedback Opportunity 60

61 POTENTIAL STUDY POLICY OUTCOMES Ideas from this project will be rolled into the DOE project to inform ongoing policy conversation and eventual Action Plan Model one policy idea in greater depth o NOT a policy proposal a modeling scenario to use as a discussion point 61

62 POLICY CHANGE TO MODEL - Count EUI toward Performance Incentive Impacts can be reasonably predicted and modeled Expected to have as large an impact as almost any potential policy change Helps outline the bounds of the policy discussion in terms of savings impacts 62

63 POLICY CHANGE IMPACT MODEL Policy to Model: Allow utilities to count EUI efficiency project impacts (incremental costs, savings, etc) in the mechanism for calculating performance incentives for energy conservation. THIS IS NOT A PROPOSAL. FOR DISCUSSION ONLY 63

64 POLICY CHANGE IMPACT MODEL Expected proximate effect is improved costbenefit analysis of EUI projects The degree of cost-effectiveness improvement will be determined from already-collected data and new research Models developed for the study will be used to predict impact on conservation potential 64

65 POLICY CHANGE ADVISORY FEEDBACK Other policy ideas to model (either more impactful or more instructive)? How does the Performance Incentive factor into your CIP decision-making? Would it drive EUI implementation? 65

66 PAUSE This is the last slide prepared for the Advisory Committee dealing with the EUI Potential Study Feedback, Questions, Comments? 66

67 TODAY S AGENDA Meeting kick-off and Review Project Goals Potential Study Results Utility Recommendations from Potential Study Modeling Impacts of Policy Change Quick Check in on Stakeholder Project Normal Maintenance and Department Review Process Guidance Wrap-up / Feedback Opportunity 67

68 DOE STAKEHOLDER PROJECT CHECK-IN No stakeholder meetings since the last Advisory Committee meeting 2/12/18 Planning for stakeholder meeting #4 Connecting EUI to other grid efforts Wilder survey under development Major Action Plan objectives 68

69 STAKEHOLDER MEETING PRESENTERS Joe Paladino DOE Mary Santori Xcel Rich Sedano RAP Ron Schoff EPRI Jeff Haase GRE Multiple Panel Discussions Kevin Lawless Forward Curve Greg Anderson Otter Tail Anthony Fryer DOC Lisa Severson Minnkota Tricia DeBleeckere MN PUC Niels Malskær Royal Danish Embassy 69

70 STAKEHOLDER MEETING #4 PLAN Preliminary agenda as we nail down presenters Connect to PUC Grid Modernization effort Utility presentation on successful EUI project o Specifically, may ask an IL utility rolling out CVR to share their experiences (2 steps ahead of MN) Action Plan preview including: o o o Guidance developed over the project Incorporated Potential Study findings Next steps and long term plan to drive EUI efficiency 70

71 STAKEHOLDER PROJECT WILDER SURVEY Survey under development with Wilder Building on findings so far from the stakeholder process Solicit feedback from more points-of-view and a wider set of respondents 71

72 STAKEHOLDER PROJECT CHECK-IN Some discrete planned outcomes of the project Improve beyond normal maintenance definition Improve DSM 1% threshold guidance Incorporate findings from statewide EUI potential study Flesh out possible metrics for long-term EUI goals Connect with grid modernization process Make connections between utility infrastructure planning teams and CIP teams Create a reference document for how utilities can take advantage of EUI and current barriers (Action Plan) 72

73 TODAY S AGENDA Meeting kick-off and Review Project Goals Potential Study Results Utility Recommendations from Potential Study Modeling Impacts of Policy Change Quick Check in on Stakeholder Project Normal Maintenance and Department Review Process Guidance Wrap-up / Feedback Opportunity 73

74 NORMAL MAINTENANCE GUIDANCE Per statute Normal Maintenance determines EUI project eligibility and establishes conservation calculation baseline As part of the DOE project, uncertainty about the meaning of Normal Maintenance was identified as a barrier to EUI implementation - with a possible solution 74

75 NORMAL MAINTENANCE GUIDANCE Draft guidance updated (handout) Improving over time to reach consensus Still somewhat counterintuitive Added Commerce EUI project review process outline to guidance Each project still requires approval o Guidance outlines the process; does not guarantee individual project assumptions 75

76 NORMAL MAINTENANCE FEEDBACK Goal is to clarify the process to determine normal maintenance and lower barriers to EUI efficiency implementation Is the guidance sufficiently clear? Is there room for improvement? Will this guidance help drive EUI projects? 76

77 TODAY S AGENDA Meeting kick-off and Review Project Goals Potential Study Results Utility Recommendations from Potential Study Modeling Impacts of Policy Change Quick Check in on Stakeholder Project Normal Maintenance and Department Review Process Guidance Wrap-up / Feedback Opportunity 77

78 POTENTIAL STUDY REMAINING TASKS Incorporate final feedback from AC Model possible policy change Finalize utility recommendations Proofread, citations, formatting, etc. Publish final report, factsheet, screening tools, and webinar 78

79 POTENTIAL STUDY SCHEDULE Advisory Committee Feedback due July 16 th Final draft of report, factsheet, screening tools, and webinar to be delivered to Commerce by the end of July *Completion date was extended from 6/30 79

80 STAKEHOLDER PROJECT SCHEDULE Likely schedule next stakeholder meeting in early August Survey to be sent out in August Action Plan expected in late 2018 Possibly extend the project into 2019 to widely disseminate results 80

81 THANK YOU! Thank you to all Advisory Committee members Special Thank You to all entities sharing data 81

82 CONTACT INFORMATION Travis Hinck Carl Nelson Lakin Garth Adam Zoet project webpage at 82

83