Energy for Sustainable Development

Transcription

1 Energy for Sustainable Development Tae Yong Jung Professor, Graduate School of International Studies Ji-Chul Ryu, Ph.D. Senior Fellow (former), Korea Energy Economics Institute November Workshop on Capacity Development for Mainstreaming Energy Sustainable Development Goals, Targets and Indicators into Statistical Programmes in Select Asian Countries

2 Lecturer Name: Ji-Chul Ryu, Ph.D. Affiliation: Korea Energy Economics Institute Contact: (Retired in June 2013) <Education Background> Ph. D. in Economics, Australian National University Master in Statistics, Seoul National University Bachelor in Science (Mathematics), Seoul National University <Research> Energy Modeling, Planning and Policy Analysis Energy Strategy Development International Energy Cooperation

3 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Post SDGs Energy Demand Increase and its Drivers - Drivers: population, economic growth, industry Issues on Energy and SD - Energy security, empowering the poor, technologies, peak oil, Means of Implementation - Investment and behavioral change Korean Experiences

4 2 Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: SDGs Source: UN

5 3 Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: SDGs Source: A New Partnership, The Report of the High Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda (2013)

6 4 Global Primary Energy Use ( ) Source: Perspectives on Sustainable Energy for the 21 st Century, UNDESA, 2012

7 5 POPULATION Population Fertility Rate Global Demographics Billion Children per Woman Billion 9 8 OECD 9 6 Other Non OECD Africa China India Southeast Asia Latin America 6 Age 65+ Africa 4 Age India 3 3 China 2 OECD Age Source: World Bank & United Nations

8 6 ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVES ENERGY DEMAND GDP Energy Demand Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs AAGR % AAGR % 100 World 2.8% Other No n OECD 3.9% 1000 World 1.0% Energy Saved ~ China 5.6% Other OEC D 1.8% United States 2.3% Source: ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

9 7 INDUSTRY ENERGY DEMAND INCREASES Quadrillion BTUs 250 Paint 200 Plastics Fertilizer Chemicals Manufacturing & Industry Energy Industry Other Liquid Fu els Steel Coal Automobiles Lubricants Textiles Natural Gas Asphalt 0 Agriculture Source: ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

10 8 Energy Price Projection Prices of major fossil fuels have been steadily increasing since 1995, which will be continued in the future. Coal Price 1 USD/MT Crude Oil Price 2 USD/bbl Natural Gas Price USD/mmbtu 3 +5% p.a. +9% p.a. +7% p.a Austrialn Coal 2 Average Spot Price 3 Million Metric British Thermal Units Source: World bank

11 Macro-economic parameters Energy Supply/Demand System Indigenous production Primary energy supply Transformation sector Final energy demand by fuel Final energy demand by sector Nuclear Nuclear Power sector Electricity & heat Industry Coal Coal Net electricity imports Coal Oil Oil Oil Transport Gas Gas Petroleum refinery Gas Hydro Hydro Other sector Losses & own use NRE Renewable NRE Res/Com s Net primary energy imports CO2 emission

12 9 Issues on Energy and SD Energy Security Is there enough energy available at the right price to ensure development? Climate change, energy security domestic renewable energy sources, but not supply enough for base load Faster economic growth in developing countries need more energy more concerns on energy security & climate change

13 10 How oil travels around the world Energy security issue Source: Peak Oil news and message board

14 11 Russia s pipelines Energy security issue Source: Robert Kaplan,Stratfor

15 12 Issues on Energy and SD Empowering the poor 3 billion people without access to the electricity, safe heating and cooking (using biomass for cooking indoor air pollution and other risk of health -> a million of death) Role of Women in SD No energy No economic activities Poverty No energy No utilities

16 13 Issues on Energy and SD Empowering the poor Number of People without Access to Modern Fuels Source: Perspectives on Sustainable Energy for the 21 st Century, UNDESA, 2012

17 14 Issues on Energy and SD Food, Water & Energy Nexus Crops for large scale biofuel higher food price bad impact on the poor and high vulnerable to the climate Land competition with food and energy Food, water & energy combined, holistic, integrated, comprehensive approach Priority in Development? De-growth of rich nations? May need de-growth of rich nations reduce at least population growth less pressure for energy de-growth of rich nations equitable energy services for other nations

18 15 Issues on Energy and SD Developing and Developed World Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear OECD Quadrillion BTUs Coal Gas Oil Source: 2000 ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy

19 16 Issues on Energy and SD Energy Technology Revolution Large scale investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency, nuclear energy and CCS Energy technology solution is feasible for limiting GHG emissions Energy technology revolution lower the cost of advanced technology, renewable options change the global energy system

20 17 TECHNOLOGY FOR ENERGY CHALLENGES Technology to address the twin challenges of increased energy demand while mitigating risk from GHG emissions Improving Efficiency Automotive technologies Vehicle light weighting Advanced synthetic lubricants Power generation Cogeneration Wind turbine lube oils Expanding Supplies Directional drilling Unconventional and liquefied natural gas Advanced biofuels Reducing Emissions Natural gas for power generation Controlled Freeze Zone Carbon capture and storage Global Climate & Energy Project

21 18 Issues on Energy and SD Sustainable energy technologies Investment in only sustainable energy options With supportive policies, 77% of world energy demand in 2050 could be covered by renewable energy technologies (IPCC) implies that renewable energy technologies are not competitive with fossil fuel technologies need more policy intervention Technology development & policy support in renewable energy options to reach grid parity quickly

22 19 Issues on Energy and SD Peak Oil vs. No Limit The age of fossil fuels (oil, gas,..) has ended Oil depletion has already peaked or soon in peak (Bell shape) and demand for oil keeps increasing excess demand Still, oil is dominant, why? technology factor expanding Vs. supply capacity Limitless reserves of fossil fuels price signal Price is increasing more unconventional reserves will be discovered and exploited

23 20 REMAINING OIL RESOURCE Crude and Condensate (BBO) ~1,000 ~1,100 ~1,100 ~100 Russia/Caspian Europe North America ~650 Middle East ~150 ~4,300 ~200 Asia Pacific Latin America Africa Global Source: International Energy Agency

24 21 Over 200 years coverage at current demand GLOBAL GAS RESOURCE North America Europe OECD Russia/ Ca spian* TCF 30 Middle East Unconventional Asia Pacific Conventional Latin America Africa 0 World Source: International Energy Agency

25 22 MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION Annual Global Investment - actual and required ($ billion) Source: UN Global tracking Framework 2015 Key Findings

26 23 THE WAY FORWARD Strengthen Regional collaboration Expand the knowledge database Develop the capacity of actors involved in monitoring Build the database of policy intervention Source: ADB(2014) Sustainable Energy for All: Tracking Progress in Asia and the Pacific A summary Report

27 24 THE KOREAN CASE GDP and Energy decoupling Hydrocarbon economy starts. financial crisis energy intensity (+)? Source: Korea Resource Economics Association (2013), 2012 Modularization of Korea s Development Experience: Energy Policies

28 THE KOREAN CASE 25 Primary Energy Demand (Overview) Hydrocarbon economy starts. Source: Korea Resource Economics Association (2013), 2012 Modularization of Korea s Development Experience: Energy Policies

29 Domestic Energy Production in Korea (million toe) Limited Energy Resources 16.0 Domestic Reserves: Anthracite, hydro, renewable No oil, natural gas, bituminous coal, uranium Import dependence: 95.7 % Energy import : US$ billion (2013) = 34.7 % in Korea s total imports Total: 12.1 mm toe mm toe Korea is a major energy importer in the world Oil : 5 th, mm bbl (2013) LNG : 3 rd, 39.8 mm tons (2013), 8 th Gas import Coal : 3 rd, mm tons (2013) 1.8 mm toe 0.5 mm toe 0.9 mm toe Coal Natural Gas Hydro Renewables

30 THE KOREAN CASE 26 Comparison of Energy Indicators financial crisis High economic growth more energy demand Q: What is the meaning of such high oversea dependence of energy supply? Source: Korea Resource Economics Association (2013), 2012 Modularization of Korea s Development Experience: Energy Policies

31 THE KOREAN CASE 28 Energy Mix Million TOE Coal Petroleum LNG Hydro Nuclear Renewable Fuel Mix Changes by source ( ) Oil : % LNG : % Coal : % Nuclear : % Source: Korea Energy Economics Institute (2014), Yearbook of Energy Statistics

32 THE KOREAN CASE 29 External/Internal Energy Situations High oil (energy) price Energy Security issue reduce oil dependency change of energy mix Energy saving/efficiency improvement policies domestic/international competitiveness Technology development for alternative energy Application of new technology and non-energy technology (ICT)

33 THE KOREAN CASE 30 Energy Technology Development in Korea Source: Korea Resource Economics Association (2013), 2012 Modularization of Korea s Development Experience: Energy Policies

34 31 Clean Energy and Air Quality Improvement THE KOREAN CASE Source: Korea Resource Economics Association (2013), 2012 Modularization of Korea s Development Experience: Energy Policies

35 THE KOREAN CASE 32 New & Renewable Energy (NRE) Policy Long-term NRE Plan Source: Korea Resource Economics Association (2013), 2012 Modularization of Korea s Development Experience: Energy Policies Policy tools: FIT, RPA, RPS Technology development Subsidy/Incentive Mandatory regulations: NRE for public buildings,

36 33 Major Policies in NRE Development THE KOREAN CASE Source: Korea Resource Economics Association (2013), 2012 Modularization of Korea s Development Experience: Energy Policies

37 New Energy Strategy in Korea (Jan. 2014) Vision Strengthening Energy Industry and Policy Sustainability Improving People s Life Standard/Quality 6 Major Strategy 1. Enhancing Energy Conservation 2. Establishing Distributed Power Supply System 3. Harmonizing Environment and Safety 4. Strengthening Energy Security 5. Stable Energy Supply System 6. Increasing People s Participation Source: The Second National Energy Plan, January 2014.

38 THANK YOU 38